Hey all, pitchers and catchers report in just two weeks. Yeah, on February 14th Chicago Cubs pitchers and catchers will be in camp. This is usually rather exciting, except this year we aren’t sure who will be in that camp. With 11 days till they are there, will the Cubs have another starting pitcher in the fold? Will there be closer around the Cubs closer spot? Who in the world will leadoff?
En route to warmer weather! #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/85oD857AnF
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) February 3, 2018
I hope that this helps answer some of your remaining questions on the Cubs and the upcoming 2018 season.
Closer
We hear this all the time still – how can the Cubs, a World Series competitor, go into the season without a seasoned closer!?
Those questioning this are both right and wrong. The Chicago Cubs are 1000% going into the season with Brandon Morrow as their closer. Morrow, whose 1.85 BB/9 was nearly three walks better than Wade Davis in 2017, has all the right attributes to do well as a closer – he just doesn’t have the experience. Yet.
I understand the clamoring for a guy like Greg Holland. Holland is a guy who has had tons of success, and a lot of it has been in the playoffs and World Series. But the whole attraction and reason the Cubs front office is and has been so good is their reluctance to pay for past performance. Greg may very well have a bunch of bullets left in the tank, but why would the Cubs want to toss $50 million at a 32-year-old who is a season removed from Tommy John?
Sure you can point to his 41 saves last season, but you can also point to his 3.61 ERA or 4.06 xFIP in 2017. There’s also the increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts per nine that are worrisome as well. Not to mention his absolutely horrific August where he gave up 14 earned runs in 11 games and had a 2.143 WHIP. He was great before and corrected himself after, but damn I would hate to give that version of Holland $50 million.
Brandon was better than Holland in 2017. Saves aside (which a recorded save is sometimes a very blurred stat) Brandon didn’t give up a homer, batters walked 45% less often, they struck out hitters at an almost identical clip. Morrow topped Holland in ERA, xFIP, WHIP, and performed at a phenomenal level throughout the playoffs.
He isn’t Kenley Jansen, he isn’t Craig Kimbrel, but the Chicago Cubs weren’t crazy to zero in on him quickly for their open closer role.
Leadoff
In order to score runs, you need someone that can get on base. That’s the idea from a lot of Cubs fan’s perspective anyway. I do like to point out that the Cubs score 822 runs in 2017, finished second to only the Colorado Rockies and bettered their 2016 run production by 14. The biggest issue with the Cubs in 2017 was the lack of stopping other teams from scoring runs. The 2017 team allowed 695 runs where the 2016 version allowed only 556.
I say that, but I know that there wasn’t a real flow to the 2017 offense. The team did score more runs, but I concede some of the runs were under different conditions that 2016. Anyways, those did equate to more runs scored and doesn’t negate the issue of limiting opponents from scoring.
Flow aside, I don’t believe a team needs a prototypical leadoff man to play winning baseball, nor to compete for a World Series. Look at the 2017 Houston Astros. George Springer isn’t a leadoff hitter, but he was able to thrive in that spot and helped take the Astros to baseball’s promised land. This helps lend credence to a newer (but slightly older) philosophy, batting one of your three best hitters first. In “The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball” Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtma, and Andy Dolphin come to several conclusions that differ from traditional baseball thinking – one of which is the leadoff man.
“When constructing a batting order the best three hitters should occupy the #1, #2 and #5 slots, with fourth and fifth best hitters in the #3 and #4 slots. Further, it is beneficial to have your pitcher batting eight to increase the odds of the lead-off hitter having a runner on base to advance.”
Joe Maddon already subscribes to one of “The Book’s” principles, hitting the pitcher eighth. The Kyle Schwarber hitting leadoff was another attempt at playing the percentages, and I would suspect that the 2018 team will lean on the methods in this book for their leadoff man once again.
TFW you realize there is no obvious leadoff hitter, and you’re gonna get crushed by some folks no matter who you put up there. pic.twitter.com/v1yRgU4sN0
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 4, 2018
There has been a lot of talk about Albert Almora hitting leadoff, but he hasn’t shown enough patience or ability to consistently get on base in his 440 career plate appearances. There is Javy Baez, which his free-swinging mentality really doesn’t equate to starting an inning. Addison Russell has some of those same inconsistencies as Baez and Almora show. This leaves Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, and Kris Bryant as options.
If Heyward could regain his 2015 form, you put him in the leadoff spot without question. His .293/.359/.439 slash line would look good atop the Cubs order, but his struggles have limited what the Cubs can do with him and what they can do with their order in general. Rizzo was great in his 14 starts as a leadoff man in 2017, but his bat is more important further down in the lineup allowing the team to extend innings. Contreras is a great option (in my opinion) but there is a lot of wear and tear catchers go through during a season which can hurt his offense later in the season (something that we haven’t seen yet with Willson).
My choice to leadoff is Kris Bryant. He leadoff in college has already hit in the two-hole, is one of the three best bats on the team. He gets on base at a higher clip than anyone on the roster, has sneaky speed, and would immediately put a pitcher on the defense.
Outside of Bryant, I would take a long look at Willson Contreras. His ability to create might be the best on the team. What I mean by that is, he has a weird knack for coming through in moments that seem to shift the game. This is vague, but there are times where a single gets a run home and Willson comes through but somehow turns the single into a double and scores when the next guy up gets a hit.
With a team that will lack speed, it is finding those guys that can replace speed with power or be smartly aggressive on the basepaths. Or, you can turn the reigns back over to Kyle Schwarber, which isn’t as dumb of an idea as you are probably thinking it is right now.
Starting Pitcher
This is the big one. Will the Cubs go into the 2018 season with someone like Mike Montgomery in the rotation, or will they sign someone?
I think it is inevitable that the Cubs sign one of; Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, or Yu Darvish. Even if they don’t land one of them, Lance Lynn or Andrew Cashner are nice options. The biggest worry is, when will they sign?
The Cubs want Yu Darvish. I think they have always wanted Yu Darvish. This offseason has really changed the shape of what to expect and how to predict. Because of this, and both clubs and players inability to come to terms has really turned fans off of this offseason.
Now I live for this, and even though the offseason has been slow, it has been so intriguing. This has been a fun offseason to learn how some of the interaction between clubs and players work. I mentioned some of this in a previous article, but watching how the negotiation is working in like ultra super slow-mo I have been able to see how a team or a player tries to gain leverage. Take Yu, for instance, his team leaking how they are waiting for the Dodgers and Yankees to shed salary so they can enter the fold. Seeing the Cubs counter by leaking some renewed interest in Alex Cobb.
But I digress…
It seems that free agents have pushed their deadline to sign until opening day. This had always seemingly been Christmas in the past, but because they have been getting far fewer years and dollars than they have notoriously been worth, it seems like their last-ditch effort to earn is by pushing the date to opening day.
I think there will be a signing before that time, and I think that perhaps before Cubs position players are expected to be in camp, any of the three aforementioned pitchers will be there with them. They will likely sign closer to the Cubs price than the player’s asking price, but all will be well in the end.
As far as who I think will be a Cub… it has got to be Yu Darvish at this point. There has been far too much talk, far too much chasing, far too much news for the Cubs to not get it done. I don’t know if I have ever really seen Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer strike out completely when they have zeroed in on a free agent. Darvish is in their crosshairs and I expect Darvish to be on the 2018 Chicago Cubs roster.
