It has been part of the assumption since the Winter Meetings that the New York Yankees could be shopping bullpen-ace and closer Andrew Miller. Wide speculation connected (and still connects) the Yankees and Chicago Cubs, even before the Starlin Castro for Adam Warren deal went down.
Now with the Yankees trading for All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman amid a domestic violence case that occurred in early December just as the flame-thrower was about to be traded to L.A., rumors have been heating up that Miller could now be on the move, and the team that makes the most sense – the Cubs.
Analysts point to the lack of success in the Cubs’ bullpen, and specifically the lack of a “big-time closer,” and the narrative appears to live on no matter what. The Cubs relievers have steadily improved as a whole since 2013 when they were 13th in bullpen ERA in the National League; 8th in the NL the next season; to the 8th best bullpen in the majors in 2015. They also finished second in batting average against with a .234 clip, just .001 behind NL-leader New York.
Hector Rondon, the primary closer the past two seasons, has totaled 29 and 30 saves in the 2014 and 2015, respectively. A slightly elevated FIP and xFIP in 2015, Rondon also saw a decrease in K%, but a lower BB%. After configuring all the fun, sabre stats and combining with the more traditional stats (ERA was .75 lower than 2014, BABIP was .018 lower than 2014), the righty’s WAR comes out to 1.6 in 2015, which is the exact total as in 2014.
If you add, let’s say, Justin Grimm’s WAR to Rondon of .6 in 2014 and 2015 (12+ K/9 last season), the total combines to equal 2.2 WAR in both 2014 and 2015. A year ago, Grimm earned $531,500, while Rondon earned $544,000. Together that equals $1,750,500 for 2.2 wins from the pair of righty relievers. At a modest $6M per win for WAR, the Cubs currently have a steal at the back end of the bullpen financially (we’re not even discussing Pedro Strop) with the front office saving approximately $11M for what they *should* be paying for these guys.
Andrew Miller signed with the Yankees after the 2014 season for 4 years and $36M, at $9M per season. In 2014, Miller compiled a 2.2 WAR between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. In 2015, the lefty closer totaled a 2.0 WAR after a 36 save, 14.5 K/9, 2.16 FIP season in his first year in the Bronx. At the same $6M per win in 2015, Miller out-earned his salary of $9M by 33% at $12M.
To compare and review, the Cubs currently have a tandem of Rondon and Grimm and the 2.2 WAR in 2015 for just over $1.5M whereas the Yankees have Miller at a 2.0 WAR for $9M. Without saying, stats don’t take into consideration the “factor” it plays to have a legitimate and proven closer in Miller, especially with his lefty arm slot, and the experience he brings being a veteran of the majors. However, stats don’t lie…and the numbers are quite similar. Would adding Miller to the already good, if not great, bullpen? Of course, and the Cubs would look to go 162-0 in 2016 (I kid, kind of). However, it doesn’t make sense financially to add $9M to the payroll for the next three seasons for the sake of having a “proven closer.” Also, I did not take into consideration the 30-year old’s certain decline sooner rather than later compared to Rondon and Grimm’s age of 27.
Now, player wise: the Yankees are believed to want young starting pitching in return. Well, the Cubs can’t provide that as they are always looking to improve their pitching and youth, and don’t currently have that depth. There is a glutton of young hitters in the farm, as that is widely known. Jorge Soler (whom the Cubs were reportedly shopping for Shelby Miller back when he was in Atlanta, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, and even Kyle Schwarber have all been names each team asks about when engaging in trade talks from the North Side team.
I shouldn’t have to go into it deeply why Schwarber is just a no-go, but I will briefly. In a 69-game rookie campaign, the lefty slashed .246/.355/.487 with 40% of his hits being of the extra base variety, along with an NLDS bomb that still hasn’t landed, he provides an outfield option (defensively, not so much other than to fill a void) that can be supplemented with offensive ability to make up for his defensive inability. He’s also still a catching “prospect,” which, if anything, adds to his value despite Willson Contreras really stepping up in 2015 to the point of people saying he’s the next Cubs catcher prospect. Without wasting more words, you do not trade Schwarber or someone like him for a closer, even someone like Miller.
Almora is believed to be the center fielder of the future, at worse providing exponentially better defense than the two corner options in Soler and Schwarber currently (assuming Heyward in center as it’s been indicated). Despite his BABIP being 70 points lower than in 2013 (61 games in in A-ball), Almora still maintained the same power numbers (just under 10 HR). The outfield prospect also posted a career-best BB% and K%. Primarily known for his defense, it is very encouraging that he doesn’t seem to be deescalating offensively quite yet. Because of how we’re led to believe, as Cubs fans, that prospects are god-like, it’s hard to even see an Almora for Miller swap looking good for the future. Like previously stated, Miller would obviously improve the bullpen, but it doesn’t look to make a lot of sense long-term because of the bullpen already being one of the best in the MLB.
Baez has appeared to be the most expendable, with talks of him going to Atlanta along with Tampa Bay to improve starting pitching. Even before, but even more so since the Cubs signed utility-stud Ben Zobrist, the comps for Baez have poured in more than ever. Being known as a homerun machine in the minors, the young infielder has improved his game to include a shorter stroke to decrease his elevated K%. His defense (in my opinion) is close, if not very similar to Addison Russell, but hasn’t had the consistent time to show it with being behind Russell and then, Castro. With Zobrist’s ability to play all over the diamond, we will most likely see more playing time for Baez in 2016. The front office has been high on the Puerto Rican infielder since the current regimen took over, and with his willingness to do whatever is best for the team and improving his bat to not be so homerun reliant, the ability is there to not being able to justify giving up an already .5 win player in only 28 games in 2015.
Soler is an easy guy to love, but makes a lot of sense when talking about trading for pitching upgrades. There’s a major hole if this would occur, however: there would be a hole in right field, most likely forcing Heyward to his best position, and the team being in the market for a center fielder, when they’re arguably not in the market for anyone anymore this off-season. After a promising 2014 season with 97 plate appearances, the Cuban outfielder didn’t quite live up to the bar set by mostly everyone in baseball. Finding himself on the disabled list a couple times throughout 2015, Soler only knocked 10 homeruns and posted a .1 WAR despite a .361 BABIP (his best in professional ball with at least 23 games played in whichever league he played in). Criticized for his defense, even with his well above-average arm, Soler posted a -8 defensive runs saved with a -7.0 ultimate zone rating. His lack of getting to the ball with an efficient route has been well-documented, however I believe much is to do with his hamstring injuries he has been dealing with ever since signing with the Cubs. That may sound like an excuse, but it is merely an observation of what could be affecting his ability because of his flashes of defensive prowess every now and then.
Trading for Andrew Miller would definitely improve the bullpen in the short-term, but could take away from an important position elsewhere depending on the piece or pieces the Yankees would ask/the Cubs would be willing to give. Most of all, it doesn’t make sense financially when you take into account the Cubs’ bullpen as is and how little they’re paying for arguably better production than what Miller could provide. His $9M salary is well-worth his talent and numbers, but with this current Cubs squad, there is no legitimate argument to make for finding a seat down the left field line at Wrigley for the lefty.
