We’ve all been slowly coming to the realization that it’s likely the Chicago Cubs will enter the 2022 season without Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, or Anthony Rizzo. Earlier today I reported that the Cubs offered Rizzo around half the money the St Louis Cardinals gave Paul Goldschmidt.
Since we knew Rizzo was expecting something in the nine digit range, I guesstimated that it was around $40 million less than his expectation. Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney have reported that the Cubs offered Rizzo a five-year extension for $70 million.
In my earlier article I put the Cubs deal in the $65 million range, but suggested the Cubs shorted Rizzo on the number of years. I, like many others, believed Rizzo had done enough to earn something closer to the $20-25 million a year range – but likely for three or four years. We’re now finding out that the offer was for five years – AND $14 MILLION A YEAR!!!
To frame this a bit, Rizzo is finishing a seven-year deal this year that is paying him $16.5m in 2021 ($5.86m AAV). Several years back I had a source tell me Rizzo had some resentment with the deal he signed. That resentment was more towards himself, as he sold himself short, and he would never let that resentment get out publicly.
“We’ve had enough time to talk and try to figure it out,” Rizzo said. “I told my agents to not talk to me about it anymore, even from this point on. It was good just to have clarity one way or the other. Now I can get ready for the season.”
Now, I’m about to type a couple things that will piss Cubs fans off. The first, Rizzo doesn’t necessarily comp to Goldschmidt. At the point of Goldy’s deal, he had a higher career WAR, and a park and league-adjusted OPS 45% above average, compared to Rizzo’s 29%. Simply put, Goldy was worth a larger deal than Rizzo – but not twice as much.
Next, yes, Rizzo has much more of a leadership type of guy. He’s more entrenched with the organization and community. More so than Bryant or Baez, and is the type of dude you want on the billboard representing your franchise (not suggesting with of the other two are not). But, if you’re asking me – the guy that’s intricately immersed himself in the game of baseball for 35+ years, studying the game and players and tendencies and careers across multiple leagues – Rizzo likely has a huge drop-off in the next three seasons.
The Cubs, based on that nugget, could be better off giving money to Bryant or even Willson Contreras than Rizzo
BUT!!! HOW CAN ONE EVEN IMAGINE THE CUBS WITHOUT RIZZO!?!?
Yes, baseball is a business. It’s a game, but it is also a business. Sometimes the business end interferes with the idea that this is a kid’s game. But from a Cubs perspective, the business end of the stick makes sense to keep Rizz around – even if his expectations are more than what you expected to pay.
“It’s just part of the business,” Rizzo said. “Like I’ve stated many times before, I love Chicago. I love the fans. I love what Wrigley Field and being a Chicago Cub is all about. But obviously it didn’t work out thus far. And that’s OK. I’m at peace with it. I’ve done everything I can. And I’ll continue to do everything I can to be the best player I can be. I look forward to this group. We (have) all the makings to be a very fun team.”
