We are finally here, Opening Day Eve. I just finished watch the Son Ranto Show, they had a panel of awesome Chicago Cubs bloggers on and now I’m hyped for the season. I have to add, Cubs Twitter is freaking amazing. The support they all give to each other and to the players (generally) and the organization is incredible.
I always start the new season with hope. Baseball spreads hope. The hope that the cold winter will turn to summer, that brighter days are ahead, and that your team will win the World Series.
I’m reminded of the first time I stepped into Wrigley Field. Ok, not the first time, but my first memory of Wrigley. The drive from the northern suburbs was long and filled with anticipation. It seemed like it took four hours to get from Six Flags to the Lake Forest oasis.
As we got closer to the off-ramp, the traffic would get more dense and my dad began to use more colorful language. Riding in our 1979 station wagon, in the back, on the middle bump seat with the faint smell of our own exhaust mixed with that weird adhesive from the cloth that was now drooping from the ceiling, radio tuned to 720-WGN.
As we drove at what seemed to be three-MPH as we got closer, that exhaust smell gave way to the likes of White Castle, which would give way to hot dogs or burgers or other incredible foods. As we finally approached the federal landmark, the smell of grilled onions filled the air. We would go in through the front gate, after my dad paid his insane price of $2.50 for parking. He said “screw the E-Z out parking, it’s a ripoff for $5!” (If only he had hindsight, since we would wait for an hour before the guy parked in front of us finally made it back to the car, also, I don’t think he should see parking prices today 😬).
I clearly remember the noises of traffic, both cars and people. Finally making into the concourse, instead of walking me to our seats, my dad wanted me to see Wrigley from directly behind the plate. Having me close my eyes, he held my hand as we walked the steps up. It sounded and smelled different than anything I’ve ever heard or smelled. Then he had me open my eyes to uncover the greenest of green grass, the ivy on the wall, and a Cubs left-hander taking BP. The Cubs would lose that game, but the experience is etched into my conscience forever.
Now, what can we expect from the Cubs in 2021? Well, I’ll do my best to answer that for you.
I’m going to do something I wouldn’t normally do, and tell you upfront how I think they’ll do. This is a 89 to 91 win team. Now for the deets.
Rotation
This isn’t the greatest Cubs rotation on paper, but I wouldn’t sleep on them either. Behind staff ace Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies is an accomplished and underrated pitcher. Then there is Jake Arrieta, who has had a few down seasons, but now that he will have a great defense and has had time to work out some kinks in his mechanics, he’ll be really good. Trevor Williams has worked on some mechanics as well, and those should help him be much more competitive.
But the pitcher I’m most excited about is Adbert Alzolay. This is a dude primed to have a huge year, so huge I think he’s going to be a top-three Rookie of the Year candidate. I am so high on Adbert’s future, I think he’s a future number two in a Cubs rotation real soon.
Overall grade: C+
Bullpen
If you asked me how this pen will be two months ago, I would have told you they would be a disaster. Now, not so much.
While I personally believe Craig Kimbrel will bounce back a bit (not an early in his career type, but someone you can win with) I understand the frustration with him. I don’t exactly know the answer if it isn’t him, but I think he will be fine.
I’m also high on Rex Brothers (read my piece here on him) but believe the rest of the arms are underrated.
I’m also high on the depth the Cubs have here. It looks like the Cubs will bring 14 pitchers with them, which might be too much with as many off days they have the first month, but there’s also several arms waiting in the minors that can contribute. While it doesn’t sound like it, or didn’t seem like it a few months ago, this is going to be a strength of this team in 2021.
Overall grade: B+
Defense
This is the best defensive squad the Cubs have had since the 2016 season. While I don’t think this year would compete with the near best-ever rankings that team had, this will be defense that will save a lot of runs.
Saving runs will be incredibly important too. There are a lot of pitch to contact types in the rotation and bullpen, and having a sound defense will be a giant asset.
A mix of David Bote and Nico Hoerner (who will be back up with the club soon) is an upgrade over the 37 second baseman they trotted out in 2020 (yes, both of them were also in that mix). Joc Pederson will be an improved defensive player over Kyle Schwarber in left. Ian Happ has had another year under his belt in center. Then they added Jake Marisnick, who is another defensive whiz. Oh, and perennial Gold Glove contender Jason Heyward is in right.
I really loved the work and improvement Willson Contreras has made. He’s now a top five catcher in baseball because his ability to hit AND defend. He’s a leader, his pitchers trust him, and he does everything defensively you want a catcher to do.
Kris Bryant is a solid third baseman, Anthony Rizzo won a flippin Rawlings Platinum Glove! Then Javier Baez is one of the best fielders in all baseball.
The goal of the game is too score more than you give up, well, the teams that rate highest in Run Differential aren’t necessarily the huge offensive clubs, they’re the ones that play great defense. I expect the Cubs to play great defense.
Overall grade: A
Offense
I think people forget about who the Cubs have in their lineup. This is a massively loaded group of offensive players. Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Pederson, Baez, Contreras – all are wildly successful players. Something Evan Altman said on the Son Ranto Show, you don’t need career years out of these guy, you just need them to not have bad seasons (paraphrasing a bit). That’s absolutely true! You don’t need giant years from them, you just need them to be who they are and this offense will be incredible.
There are three players in that mix that have had MVP-like seasons. There are a few others that are very capable of putting up MVP-like seasons. This is an offense that will average over five runs a game and will be near the top of the NL runs scored leaders.
I also love that David Ross is asking them to be a little more selfish. This is something that might have held this offense back, which sounds a little counterproductive. But it did seem that a lot of the Cubs were all too willing to pass on pitches, extend at bats, and take their walks. Which, in a team game this is great, it’s the “next man up” philosophy that provided the 2016 team with a ton of success.
But, that philosophy was easily game planned against. Pitchers would get ahead in counts and put the hitters on their heels. Several opposing teams have said the Cubs were an easy team to game plan for.
If the Cubs hitters are going to be more “selfish” in 2021, it could very well lead to a lot more individually successful players which would in turn lead to more success in the standings. Oh, and hitters will get video back in 2021? I smell a lot of craziness at Clark and Addison.
Overall grade: A-
Coaching
Ross is in his second season, but I’d guess after dealing with COVID and other obstacles, he feels he’s a 15-year veteran coach. 2020 gave Rossy a ton of experience. The pandemic, having a Spring Training, then shutting down, to start up, have some success to stumbling some, and finally making the playoffs.
I was one of Rossy’s biggest advocates in 2020, and will be even more so in 2021. Unless he goes out and makes every wrong decision ever, and the Cubs go 2-40 to start the year, I’m just absolutely convinced he’s going to be a great manager. He’s got all the mental and intellectual tools, knows the in’s and out’s of the game, demands respect, and knows how to push phenoms and four-A type players alike.
I just see a brilliant coaching career ahead of him and think the next time the Cubs hold a World Series trophy, he will be the manager.
Overall grade: B-
Now, I don’t think you can have a discussion about the Cubs 2021 season without addressing the elephant in the room – extensions. There are three core members looking for extensions and either ownership or management that wants to find any reason to trade most of them.
This club can win 90 games in 2021, but they could also lose 90 games if this roster is broke up.
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers continues to suggest that if the division is remotely close at the deadline, the Cubs are selling. I don’t necessarily agree with that, I think there are real paths to this team being a major seller at the deadline, but they’ll have to be 10 or more games out of playoff contention. With how bad the NL Central is, I just don’t see that happening.
That’s another factor in thinking the Cubs will win 90ish games. This division is not good friends. The St Louis Cardinals have awful pitching. The Brewers have bullpen arms, and Christian Yelich, but nothing else. The Cincinnati Reds are going to be a bad baseball team. The Pittsburgh Pirates are an MLB team in name only.
Maybe you feel some of the grades I gave were too high, but you can’t argue with how poor this division will be.
Now maybe the Cardinals supplement what might be an above average offense with some pitching. They still need to add like 10 guys to get them to respectable levels. The Brewers might find a way to add a bat or starter depth, but they’re not taking on overly expensive guys that would require major prospects in return. The Reds will find a way to be pesky, again, but their owner didn’t seem excited to spend and their GM is happy carrying out that idea. The Pirates will feature their top-26 prospects on their MLB roster, and “there’s a deep drive by Castellanos…”
This team should be in the playoffs again in 2021. This will be one last run with these guys, hopefully Tommy-boy Ricketts finds some money under his pillow to get some extensions done, but if not, let’s enjoy what we have here.
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