Now that Anthony Rizzo is married, he very well have to start reading the book What to Expect When You’re Expecting. But now, Chicago Cubs fans want to know what they can expect from the teams first baseman, leader, and slugger.
I argued that, while Rizzo had a disappointing start to his 2018 season, as a whole he had what was likely his best season as a professional. This is tough for some to swallow, as he averaged .282/.387/.522 with a .910 OPS, 32 homers, and 35 doubles from 2014 to 2017. His 2018 numbers ended at .283/.376/.470 with a .846 OPS and 25 home runs. My statement was based on eliminating Rizzo’s first eight games of the 2018 season, which would have given him these very impressive numbers, .293/.384/.486. Those numbers were much more impressive on September 6th, where he was slashing .299/.391/.509.
But, after an impressive five months between April and August, Rizzo didn’t end cap his season very well, starting slow and finishing slow as well.
There is some thought that Rizzo’s back, especially during the grueling stretch where the Cubs one-upped MLB Network’s 30 teams in 30 days by playing 30 games in 30 days, effected his overall performance. On top of that, there was a single day off in 43 days, in which they still showed up at the ballpark.
I understand some thought around these guys are making millions to play a game and shouldn’t complain. After all, it is a game. But that totally discredits the amount of physical and mental toll this takes on someone. Not only is baseball a physically grueling sport, the mental toll it takes on you can just as easily wipe you out completely. Pair that with a player that has had back issues in each of the past four seasons, and you can understand how his performance could suffer.
So how is his back?
There really hasn’t been much conversation around Rizzo’s back issues this year, or how he expects to combat stiffness or pain. The plan in the past was to limit the amount of ground balls and swings he takes on a daily basis. Rizzo also suggested that he became more in tune with his body, stretching, strengthening, and other routine maintenance.
“I think it’s just more of — why is it getting stiff?” Rizzo said. “And getting into the body a little more.
“Do a little more stretching and a little more kinda maintenance before I get going and doing my workouts and whatnot to make sure my body’s nice and loose and stays that way.”
This should absolutely help with his back, so would better sleep patterns and possibly changes in diet. But as someone that also suffers from back issues (except mine doesn’t necessarily put me on a DL) the issue can flare at anytime. I wouldn’t suggest that this is a ticking time bomb in any sense, but it is something that can always be there for an athlete.
Theo’s words
At the end of the 2018 season, Theo Epstein held a 90-minute press conference where he lamented the fact that the offense broke and the players with potential needed to start showing results. Rizzo is the last player that Epstein was referring to. His results are well documented. There should be no questions about his work ethic, ability, or what he gives to the organization.
But knowing Rizzo, he certainly will take Theo’s words to heart.
Using those words and playing with a chip on his shoulder after a disappointing exit from the 2018 playoffs, Rizzo is the type of guy that will absolutely use the words as a motivating force in 2019. With how much he has done, and is still able to do, could you really question his ability to push even more in 2019?
What to expect
As Cubs fans, we have learned that we can expect a heck of a lot from Rizzo. Not only has he played sound defense at first, he has been one of the more consistently dominate offensive first basemen and leaders of this team. But on top of it, he has stepped up to be a leadoff hitter. How did he do? He only became the best leadoff hitter in baseball (jokingly). I’m not even going to bring up how he (self declared) became the best reliever in baseball as well.
What you can expect from Rizzo is consistency. In his time in Chicago, especially over the past five seasons, Rizzo has been the model of consistency. From 2014-2017, he hit 32, 31, 32, and 32 home runs. Sure last season was a little below that mark, but if someone told you Anthony Rizzo would finish the 2019 season with 32 home runs, would you think they were crazy? No. In fact, you’d likely call the person who calls for him to hit 25 home runs (his 2018 result) the crazy one. Yeah, I’m looking at you ZiPS…
The good news is, most of the predictors on Fangraphs believes Rizzo will hit more home runs in 2019 than he did in 2018. They range from a low end of 26 (aforementioned ZiPS) and 31 at the high end (FANS (18)). They also predict that Rizzo will hit between .277 and .285, which is a very fair guesstimation for him. Over the past five seasons, Rizzo has hit between .273 and .286, and has an average of .282 over that stretch.
Rizzo’s biggest culprit is the shift. Because of the exaggerated shift against him, Rizzo has a lower than normal babip over his career. I do believe that with the change in how teams can use relievers, this will benefit Rizzo by allowing him to face more right-handed relievers, instead of the team’s toughest lefty every time out.
So what does it all mean?
Well, if you’ve gotten a sense from my last three contributions to the what to expect series (starters, relievers, Willson Contreras) I have been a bit more favorable towards my predictions than some bigger systems out there. That idea isn’t changing with Anthony Rizzo.
I mentioned the reasons I believe Rizzo will be a force for the Cubs in 2019, but I’ll reiterate that again. It seems that anytime the Cubs need something from someone, Rizzo is the guy that provides it. If they need production from the leadoff spot, Rizzo is there. If they need a huge defensive stop, Rizzo. If they need a huge hit, Rizzo. Hell, if they need a reliever to stop the bleeding – you guessed it… Rizzo.
The 2019 Chicago Cubs will find themselves in the toughest divisional race since the 2015 season. Rizzo absolutely understands that, and he absolutely understands the necessity for someone to be an offensive force in this offense. There is a bit of a worry of putting too much on your shoulders, but Rizzo is a professional that gets it. It’s hard to say that a veteran that is 29 years old, has accomplished what he’s accomplished and won a World Series can have a breakout season – but I’m predicting a breakout season from Anthony Rizzo.
.297/.394/.545 .939 OPS, 34 HR, 101 R, 109 RBI, 37 2B
