Since the non-tender of Kyle Schwarber, that came as a surprise but really shouldn’t have, fans have been clamouring about how the team waited too long. See, back in 2018 or even after the 2019 season, Schwarber’s value was repaired. It was repaired enough that the club could have received a nice multi-player return for the bopper.
Now no one could have predicted that a world-wide pandemic would shut down baseball and upon it’s return would eliminate the ability for fans to attend games. No one could imagine those changes would extend into the 2021 season either, causing drastic changes to all team’s budgets.
The Cubs lost value with Schwarber when the pandemic crashed budgets, but it doesn’t help the teams are moving forward not knowing when the 2021 season will start, how many games they’ll play, whether fans will be allowed in the park (and to what extent), and if the NL will have the DH. To top it off, the market will be flooded with guys similar to Schwarber’s mold, which didn’t help any prospects of trading him for value.
This isn’t to say Schwarber has lost all value, he hasn’t. There will be plenty teams willing to kick the tires on a .800 OPS 115 wRC+ player, if only for one year. But this doesn’t help the fact that Jed Hoyer (and Theo Epstein before him) and the Cubs misplayed their hand in the eyes of some fans.
Which brings us to Javier Baez.
While Baez had a down 2020 season, there aren’t many MLB front offices that will eliminate considering a player because of down numbers. (They may have used 2020 numbers to non-tender someone, but they don’t hold them to high regard on actual ability). Even if the rest of Baez’s career is similar to the 2020 season (it won’t be) they understand people pay to watch Javy be Javy. He’s as exciting of a player as there is in baseball, having a knack to turn the mundane play into a viral video.
Whether Baez hits 30 homers or has a .230/.265/.450 slash line, he has marketability talent that will be worth his price regardless of on-field results. If you recall, this was a big piece of Bryce Harper’s value. Yes, he can put up insane numbers, win an MVP, and cause a team to compete through incredible play – but there was also the marketability piece that added to his value.
In Javy’s case, is there a player in baseball you’d rather pay to see? I’m not suggesting he’s better than someone like Mike Trout, or even guys like Kris Bryant. But of all 800ish MLB players, he’s probably the player the most fans would pay to watch (maybe Fernando Tatis Jr. has taken some of that popularity away?).
In any case, there shouldn’t be anyone that has watched Baez’s career that would expect him to be more than his 2018 season. In fact, after watching millions of hours of baseball and assessing thousands of players, I suggest it’s ok to assume the rest of his career – offensively – will mimick the last six years. So while you are investing in Baez because he has the ability to be special, that specialness will come from his exciting level of play and not exactly his consistent level of play.
Baez and the Cubs used most of last winter to discuss a potential extension. They failed to come to a deal, and both sides suggested that they were close but still working on it. Then of course COVIS-19 caused the world to stop, which included any extension conversations. In November, the Cubs confirmed that they weren’t in any current conversations to extend any players. I believe they can still look to do that as the off-season matures, but until there’s a more solidified 2021 roster, I wouldn’t expect those conversations to happen.
Now the extension conversations could include Baez or Bryant, but I’d expect them to take a shot at Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras as well. Because of the complexity of extending Baez or Bryant, we will also gear their names being tossed about in trade conversations. The main difference between these two players is, the Cubs have actively engaged Baez in extension talks – to the point of confirming them publicly – while that has not happened with Bryant.
Maybe the organization doesn’t see Bryant as a long-term asset, which is fine (wrong, but fine 😉), but Baez must believe his worth is more than what the Cubs have been willing to offer. Now, when COVID hit, no team was able to conduct business, which included signing extensions with players. So that definitely would have derailed any momentum the two sides had. But it should still be noted that a deal was not reached.
With 2020 potentially changing some things, if Baez still believes he should be paid according to his pre-2020 self and perhaps the Cubs believe 2020 should be factored in (which remember, 2020 shouldn’t be heavily invested in, but teams will use it as a negotiating tool), these two sides that were “close” are likely far apart. If the club starts negotiating extensions come the end of January, and if the season starts at it’s normal time, the chances that a deal is struck before the season becomes pretty miniscule.
This is where I suggest trading him as opposed to going into the 2021 season hoping for a hail mary at the trade deadline. And in all honesty, if the decisions are between the likes of Bryant or Baez, you need a great first half from Bryant to get the most value from him, where Baez can be moved today and you’ll get similar value as you would in July (unless a super-human start to the season).
From a risk assessment standpoint alone, trading Baez (of Bryant and possibly even Rizzo) is the best path forward. With an extension you risk overpaying on past performance and likely getting inconsistent play for the next five to eight years. Even if you don’t believe Bryant will play at his 2019 level for the rest of his career (All Star, .900 OPS, 30 HR) his next five to eight years will likely at least be consistent. That cannot be said with any degree of certainty with Baez.
This is why the Cubs should capitalize on whatever value he has now, as opposing to losing him in free agency or signing him to an overvalued deal that creates similar payroll issues down the road. I know a lot of people will hate this idea, but if you’re gambling on what’s best for the future of the team – competitively – dealing Baez over any other “core” guy makes the most sense.
