Everywhere you turn the word on the street is that Javier Baez may be the “odd man out” in Chicago as Cubs look to move on starting pitching. This “conventional” wisdom is attributed to the fact that Baez showcased special skills all of last year(especially on the defensive side of the diamond), was once a top-10 rated prospect and won’t be 25 until the offseason, all while being under team control through the 2021 season. Heck, next year isn’t even an arbitration year for him, he’s still a tendered contract player. Proven MLB success, impact not solely reliant on reaching his ceiling at the plate, plays a premium position(s) and is inexplicably “extra” for the Cubs already loaded and cost-efficient position players? Yeap! He checks Every. Single. Box. when it comes to the “centerpiece” type for an organization looking to acquire cost-controlled frontline pitching.
There’s one thing about it, though. He’s NOT the perfect “trade centerpiece” for the Cubs. Because the Cubs 100% need Javier Baez.
The reason this dialogue has gone on full-blast of late is the emergence of top prospect Ian Happ(someone long thought to be the chip Cubs would cash at the deadline). Ian Happ was called up on May 13th unexpectedly due to the Cubs catching a short-term injury bug where all of Russell, Heyward, and Bryant were dealing with everything from a hamstring to an illness. It was supposed to be a “short-term” callup. Ian Happ had different plans.
Since May 13th, Happ has played all the OF positions, while hitting mainly out of the clean-up or 5-hole, and has produced to the tune of .294/.400/.647 and has already been worth .4 WARP(fangraphs). That made the Cubs decision to exchange Ian Happ’s ticket back to Iowa for frequent flyer miles an easy one for the front office brass. It also led to rampant speculation of Baez’s certain departure by the trade deadline since Happ had, up to that point, been operating in the minors with an eye towards playing 2b.
The fallacy in this line of thinking, though, is that Happ hasn’t been playing 2b since being called up. In fact, he hasn’t been playing a ton of corner OF positions, either. Nope, Ian Happ has been navigating centerfield for the most part since being called up. If anyone thinks that his presence in CF is just happenstance or by accident, it’s not.
It’s because the Cub that is on the 25 man Major League Roster that is most likely to be dealt is the 23-year old Gold Glove capable CF who is under team control through the 2022 season, Albert Almora Jr. Now, I love Albert Almora Jr so don’t get me wrong. This isn’t diminishing his talent or potential, quite the opposite. It’s realizing our personnel today as it sits now that Happ has come up and forced decisions to be made. The decision will come down to Baez or Almora Jr as a centerpiece if the Cubs REALLY want to get a cost-controlled frontline starter, and that decision is becoming ever more apparent each game.
So why Almora Jr over Baez? Well, come next year when Zobrist is in the Outfield about 70-80% of the time, the Cubs will have about 45 million sitting in the outfield between him and Jason Heyward. Now if neither of those guys could play CF effectively then that wouldn’t matter. However, Jason Heyward isn’t just effective in CF, he is well above average when he plays that spot.
Meanwhile, the Cubs may have the most flexibility in the OF in the history of the game(That’s not overstating it). God forbid if two of Schwarber, Zobrist, Heyward, or Happ went down, the Cubs have BOTH Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras that can patrol the corner spots in the OF. If Schwarber goes down, Zobrist can move to RF, Happ to LF(when he’s not in CF), and J-Hey stays in CF. That is just at the Major League Level, one phone call away in Iowa they have John Andreoli, Bijan Rademacher, and OBP machine Mark Zagunis that all would likely be the “4th” OFer for most Major League teams right now, but find themselves in a system of a franchise that had to DFA a guy like Matt Szczur for these exact reasons of outfield depth.
The infield is a different story. If Russell goes down the Cubs find themselves in a pretty big mess if they have already moved Baez and don’t have him to slide over to SS. Additionally, if Rizzo goes down, then the Cubs are forced to decide between Candelario(assuming he wasn’t added in the hypothetical Baez deal) being called up to play 1b or Tommy LaStella called up to play 3B and Bryant moving to 1b. Neither of those options are even close to as good as simply moving Bryant to 1b, Baez to 3b, and Zobrist into the IF more regularly to play 2b.
Every team has a domino-effect whenever injuries occur. Baez is the strategically placed domino that stops them all from falling down. Without Baez, the Cubs infield is one hamstring away from a major issue. With Baez, the Cubs have a built-in “Insurance Policy” on Bryant, Russell, and Rizzo that would allow the Cubs to absorb such an injury with the least possible damage(Both on the field and to their system).
Almora Jr is extremely talented, and teams are going to covet him in trade. You mix Almora Jr with Candelario and AAA Catcher Victor Caratini and you have yourself a conversation-starter for ANY pitcher that enters the trade market. If the Cubs didn’t have the depth on their roster to allow for an Almora Jr trade then Baez is probably the guy that gets moved. Almora Jr has tremendous defense and intangibles, however, the reality is that he is the pool table sitting in the corner of a man-cave that already has movie theater screen and seating, Pinball, and a Honus Wagner crackerjack baseball card. He’s an expendable luxury to the Cubs as their roster sits currently. Baez is the whole-life Insurance policy. You never trade in a whole-life insurance policy to keep a pool table.
