YOUR 2017 CHICAGO CUBS, WELL MAYBE... Part Three

Thus far we have looked at the rules and limitations a Major League Baseball team must follow in constructing both their 40 man roster and their 25 man roster. If you haven’t already, check out Part One and Part Two, but the real goal was to predict what the World Champion Chicago Cubs rosters will look like for 2017.

40 MAN ROSTER FOR 2017

So with 23 days before opening day the Cubs seem pretty set. They have fewer questions than other teams, so expect fewer, if any, changes between now and April 2nd. Assuming no injuries, here is the projected 40 man roster with my projected 25 man roster for opening day underlined and in red. In fact, the projected is exactly the same as the current 40 man roster, with one exception. Really the 25 man opening day roster is not much different either.

Starting Pitchers (11)

Jon Lester – there is no question here, as he’s already been named the opening day starter
Jake Arrieta – Won two World Series games and has a no hitter in each of the last two years
Kyle Hendricks – lead all starting pitchers with a 2.15 ERA in 2016
John Lackey – this could be his last year, but he came here for jewelry
Brett Anderson – In 2015 with the Dodgers pitched 180.1 innings with a 3.69 ERA
Aaron Brooks – was hurt most of 2016 pitching just 16.1 innings, but in 2015 threw 118.1 innings with a 3.56 ERA
Jake Buchanan – got his cup of coffee last September giving up 1 run in 6 innings, good chance he could help the big club again this year
Eddie Butler – big off season acquisition, Cubs see him as someone who can turn it around with a new home
Alec Mills – acquired in a trade with Kansas City, only 3 innings of MLB experience, but a career 3.03 ERA in 392.2 minor league innings
Duane Underwood – Saw his first promotion to AA last year, expect a full season in AAA Iowa this year. He has a career 3.40 ERA in 315 minor league innings.
Rob Zastryzny – I could have this one wrong, the most MLB ready not on the 25 man roster, but could part of bull pen on opening day.

Relief Pitchers (13)

Wade Davis – was on the mound for the last out when the Royals won the 2015 World Series
Koji Uehara – was on the mound for the last out when the Red Sox won the 2013 World Series
Mike Montgomery – was on the mound for the last out when the Cubs won the 2016 World Series
Hector Rondon – was rolling with a 1.74 ERA striking out 50 in 41 innings before getting hurt in August, hopefully he’ll return to that level again this year.
Pedro Strop – was also injured late in the summer and is looking to return to form – hats to the left!
Justin Grimm – solid situational guy that can get one guy out or throw multiple innings as needed. Also a good reverse split guy, meaning he’s better against right handed batters than left handers.
Carl Edwards – expected to improve and see 60+ innings compared to the 36 he saw in 2016
Brian Duensing – another new face with MLB experience 368 career game with a 4.13 ERA.
Pierce Johnson – after starting 73 of his 87 minor league games with a 3.09 ERA, the plan is for him to move to the pen
Jack Leathersich – Had a cup of coffee in 2015 with the Mets, then posted a 1.93 ERA in 26 games in the Cubs minor league system.
Felix Pena – got a little taste last September pitching 9 innings with the Cubs. He was originally a starter from 2012 to 2015. Then moved to the pen in 2016 posting a 3.41 ERA in Iowa as a long reliever.
Jose Rosario – posted a 2.50 ERA all in relief in 2016 across 54 innings in 45 games
Zac Rosscup – was on the disabled list pretty much all of 2016 and my front runner to be on the 40 man roster

Catchers (3)

Willson Contreras – has established himself as the full time starter and All Star in the making
Miguel Montero – struggled with back injuries in 2016, but still had a huge hit in that memorable 10th inning. He looks healthy and very good so far this Spring.
Victor Caratini – hit .291 in AA in 2016 and is expected to be the full time starter in AAA Iowa

Infielders (7)

One sentence doesn’t seem to be enough for this bunch

Anthony Rizzo – All Star, 4th in MVP voting, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger.
Ben Zobrist – World Series MVP, All Star, and his wife can really sing
Addison Russell – All Star and the youngest player to hit a grand slam in a World Series and a future MVP.
Javier Baez – buenos manos (good hands), ok mucho buenos manos, a future All Star.
Kris Bryant – when will this guy reach his potential?
Jeimer Candelario – a switch hitting corner infielder who’s knocking at the door. He hit .333 with a .959 OPS in AAA Iowa in 74 games last year.
Tommy La Stella – with all the drama still hit .270 in 143 at bats in 2016. He hit .314 behind in the count, but likely will start his 2017 season in Iowa

Outfielders (6)

Jason Heyward – a highlight reel in right field and we all know about his struggles at the plate, high hopes for 2017
Kyle Schwarber – the legend of Schwarbanger continues. After missing basically the entire 2016 regular season he showed in Cleveland to help the Cubs win it all. Expected to lead-off and play left field.
Jon Jay – signed as a free agent, a career .352 OBP and has a World Series ring from 2011
Albert Almora – was the Cubs #6 pick in the 2012 MLB draft. He is expected to take over in center with gold glove defensive ability.
Matt Szczur – in three years with Cubs just 319 at bats hitting .245 and 8 homers as a role player.
Jacob Hannemann – hit .247 in AA in 2016 with 10 homers, likely to be in AAA Iowa for 2017

WHY THESE 12 POSITION PLAYERS

As mentioned in yesterday’s Part Two article, Szczur is out of options. That makes him the front runner for that final position player spot. I can’t see the Cubs just letting him go. However, given the number of outfielders, I can see Szczur being traded. Trading Szczur for minor league players, ideally pitchers, opens up a roster spot on the 40 man roster. Ian Happ are you ready? Additionally, this would give Candelario, a switch hitting corner infielder with power, to fill that spot giving the Cubs six infielders and four outfielders, instead of five and five.

In addition to Happ, that open spot on the 40 man roster could go to a guy like Eloy Jimenez.The Cubs also have two veteran guys in Jemile Weeks and Munenori Kawasaki that currently aren’t on the 40 man roster. Even if those two veterans stay in the Cubs minor league system, we won’t see them in September unless they get moved to the 40 man roster. Same goes for Happ and Jimenez. They must be on the 40 man roster to be called up in the Fall.

WHY THESE 13 PITCHERS

Duensing signed a $2M deal and from what I’ve read is guaranteed. Some deals like this are contingent on him making the team, but I don’t think this on has that qualifier. He’d have to really fall apart the next three weeks for the Cubs to risk just letting him go. However, if he has another Spring outing like he did March 9th, look for Zastryzny to be that 13th pitcher. Keeping 13 position players and only 12 pitchers, would mean not just one, but two potential left handed pitchers just walk out of camp. We already mentioned the situation with Caleb Smith due to Rule 5.

The most roster action might come from the non roster players forcing the Cubs hand. With Smith likely heading back to the Yankees a spot on the 40 man roster will be available. I predicted that will got to Rosscup, however guys like David Rollins or Ryan Williams might be inline for that spot. Keep an eye on pitchers like Jose Rosario, Aaron Brooks, and Alex Pena who really need to perform. If they struggle it is more likely that they would be replaced on the 40 man roster. A team needs to construct their 40 man roster with players that the big club may need. Keeping players on the 40 man roster that aren’t ready to help the big club, could possibly be swapped with players that can.

So here are the 2017 Chicago Cubs….. Well maybe