Cubs Free Agency Shortstop Pursuit Might Be In Jeopardy

We should know by now that the Chicago Cubs are looking to add one of the big-four shortstops this offseason. It had been reported before the season ended that they would have interest, as soon as the year ended there was more smoke, and still today insiders connect the dots to the Cubs. The most interest, as it seems, is with Scott Boras’s client, Carlos Correa, but could his salary demands throw a wrench in the Cubs free agency pursuit of a shortstop?

The Cubs have been hot on the Correa trail since Danny Rockett and Crawly brought fans together for some caroling last winter. While there are some other needs, the Cubs free agency will either pass or fail based on if they land Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, or Dansby Swanson. While it is still the industry belief that the Cubs will still land Correa, there are some big reasons he just might not work out.

Last winter, Correa reportedly turned down a $275 million offer from the Detroit Tigers. That deal would have paid him $27.5 million AAV. There have been rumors that the Cubs aren’t interested in going too long with any offer. Perhaps there is fear coming off the Jason Heyward deal, which is still on the 2023 books, or they don’t want to block one of their own prospects. Either way, there were reports of the Cubs only interested in Aaron Judge over a five-year deal and have similar reservations on a Jacob deGrom offer.

Cubs free agency: What is Correa looking for?

Right now, it appears that Boras is preparing any interested suitors that Correa won’t be cheap. It sounds like they’re looking for an even higher AAV, an enormous AAV.

“I’ve heard the price is enormous on Correa,” Jon Heyman told 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh. “He had a $275 million offer from Detroit last year and he didn’t take it, and then ended up with a one-year deal. So he was out there last year, different agent, and didn’t get what he wanted to get. So maybe he won’t get this huge price, but now he does have Scott Boras out there from the beginning, and maybe that will help him.”

It sounds like Boras and Correa are looking to push past the $300 million mark, and likely an AAV well into the $30 millions per season. The Cubs have a lot of financial flexibility in 2023, and it opens up more in 2024, but are they willing to toss $35 million a year to Correa over the next decade?

Correa is only 28 years old, and a 10-year deal will take him to his age-38 season. Conventional wisdom tells you that he will likely move to a corner IF spot during the next 10 years, but will his offensive production be of value at third or first base?

Look, Correa is possibly the best of the four shortstops available (I might prefer Turner) but at $35m per year I think the Cubs turn their attention away from Carlos. The contract demands that Correa will have, makes me want to look at another Boras client, Bogaerts.

Player Name	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR
Carlos Correa, 28	.281	.360	.481	.840	74
Xander Bogaerts, 30	.304	.376	.503	.879	82
Trea Turner, 29	.311	.361	.509	.870	80
Dansby Swanson, 28	.261	.325	.444	.768	79

Yes, Bogaerts is a year-to-two years older than the others, but his offensive numbers are better and since he has played third base in the past, sliding back over isn’t a question.

Should Bogaerts be the top Cubs free agency target?

Bogaerts opted out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox, leaving three years and $60 million in doing so. A deal for Bogaerts will need to be six-to-eight years in length and $25 million a season. Adding an opt-out halfway through doesn’t make a $150-200 million deal as risky as a 10-year $300-350 million deal.

*I* believe in Turner’s future availability and performance, but his market will not include the Cubs. Sure, Jed Hoyer will kick the tires (and already has) but he will look for more than the Cubs are willing to offer. If that is true for Turner, it is likely true for Correa, taking him off the shortlist.

Swanson reminds me of winning a bourbon lottery at a liquor store. Everyone else grabbed the Pappy, Weller, and Taylor’s and you end up buying Eagle Rare for $80 just because you won. He’s a nice player but isn’t going to move the needle.

That leads us back to Bogaerts. He’ll command a shorter deal. He’ll command a lower AAV (the Cubs can even increase it knowing it isn’t as long). He won’t block the path for Ed Howard, Cristian Hernandez, or others. Perhaps it’s time to start looking for Cubs #2 uniforms on MLB Shop.