Gordo: Correa will be a Cub + a National Insider Agrees

We all already know that the Chicago Cubs will be a big player in free agency this winter. With rumors swirling about with the Cubs making former White Sox first baseman/DH Jose Abreu their top priority, the want to add an athletic shortstop with a plus bat. The Cubs also want to improve their centerfield situation, and add pitching. I’d predict that they will likely end up spending near the top of the league this offseason. Tuesday morning, Cubs insider, Gordon Wittenmyer, predicted that SS Carlos Correa will be a Cub.

You may have asked, why do they need a shortstop, they have Nico Hoerner? Ultimately, with less stress on infield shifts coming in 2023, the Cubs believe they need to get more athletic. With Hoerner’s flexibility it allows the team to move him to second.

“Nico [Hoerner] was one of the top defensive shortstops in the league last year, and we’re totally comfortable with him playing there,” Jed Hoyer told reporters at last week’s General Manager’s Meetings. “But, he also has the ability to play second base and probably other positions as well. It’s a position where you can have multiple guys who can do it.”

Its a shortstop league

So far this offseason, the Cubs have talked to all four elite shortstops (including Dansby Swanson). While the Cubs can go with Nico as their everyday SS, they have a chance to significantly improve.

Knowing this, Gordo has predicted that Correa will be a Cub in 2023.

As Gordon notes, the Cubs don’t appear to have the appetite for a long-term contract. Fresh off the Jason Heyward release, his deal looms large as a reason why the last core didn’t win more. Had that deal worked as expected, the Cubs would have had another significant bat to compliment their core. Putting aside $20 million or a defensive specialist in RF handicapped what the Cubs front office was able to accomplish in 2017 and beyond.

So, the question kinda remains, will Hoyer freeze from analysis paralysis, or pull the trigger on a multi-year, large investment deal? Wittenmyer believes he’ll jump.

“If Correa was a fit for the Cubs last year on a long-term yeal (he was), he still is, as the youngest of the four elite shortstops in the marketplace — and without the qualifying offer that ties the three others to draft-pick compensation. The Cubs have liked this guy since working him out at Wrigley before the 2012 draft (when they were poised to take him at No. 6 before he went No. 1 overall).

What’s more, Gordo is outlining a creative, largest free agency contract for a shortstop deal. Its creative as Gordo includes 2022 (which was part of a three-year deal he signed in Minnesota last winter) with his next deal. Add his $35.1 million for 2022 to a nine-year $290 million contract – its a monster $32.5 million for 10 years. Alone, the nine-year deal would be a $32.2m AAV, which would make him the 13th-highest AAV in MLB.

Dueling Insiders?

Jim Bowden suggests another option. The Cubs will beat Corey Seager’s 10-yr deal when he signed a 10-yr $325 million contract.

12. The Cubs surprise everyone, especially me, and land Carlos Correa on a 10-year, $327 million deal.

Jeff Snider, Sports Illustrated

Some suggested the Cubs were looking more on the shorter end of a deal. They could get that wish by offering a front-loaded contract with opt outs in years three or four. If the front four years pay him $38-40 million per (on par with Mike Trout, Garrit Cole, and Steven Strasburg), at the age of 32 he could opt out and try and beat the remaining five-years, $130 million remaining (or an average of $26m per year).

The problem is, others are predicting his contract to be well north of $300 million.

The Cubs offense would be much improved if they bring Correa in, and it just makes sense. They have been on him since 2012, were aggressive in 2022 (however, both sides no official offer was given) and need to land him (or another) in 2022’s offseason. The Cubs are in dire need of a difference maker, they have plenty of “nice” bats, but Correa can be a difference maker both defensively and offensively. His age and success makes sense with the group that will be around him. Ian Happ and Kyle Hendricks are the only Cubs with real playoff experience. Correa is a 28 year old that has played in the World Series in three separate years (2017, 2019, and 2021). He has improved the last four seasons, sitting within the top 20 in fWAR since the 2019 season.

The Cubs seem to always be one Tom Ricketts veto away from not doing something, but I’ll remain optimistic that they find a way to land their target.