A New Rizzo Contract Outlook
With all the crazy money being tossed around in MLB, it sounds like Chicago Cubs first basemen, Anthony Rizzo, wants his too. Of course he packaged his interest in a new deal with the thought of retiring as a Cub. But even with that wish, which is completely genuine, reading between the lines – Rizzo is looking for mass amounts of paper.
A new deal for Rizzo is complicated. He’s currently on a team friendly deal, which offered him security early in his career.
“What’s great is seeing everyone signing these big deals,” he said. “In a couple years hopefully I’ll be in position to cash in on some bigger earnings. But as of right now I signed a great deal that has me financially set.”
That 2013 deal has offered the Cubs one of the best values in sports. Using WAR as a reference, Rizzo has a 26.4 WAR since he signed that deal and has given the Cubs $202 million in value. He’s only been paid $22.5 million and is set to earn $11 million this season.
Based on past performance, if the Cubs paid him $35 million he would still provide value.
But the Cubs have made it a point to not pay for past performance. So we’re in a position to start predicting future performance. I’m not smart enough to project his performance or salary. But it’s the internet so we’ll try.
The first thing we need to look at is age. He’s 29 now, and can potentially become a free agent after the 2019 season. The Cubs won’t allow that as they have an option for both the 2020 and 2021 seasons. This would allow for him to become a free agent for his age 32 season. There has been several prominent players who have earned significant deals in their age 32 season. Former Cub, Jake Arrieta signed a deal paying an AAV of $25 million, Yu Darvish signed a deal paying an AAV of $21 million.
Then there are guys like Robinson Cano who signed a 10 year $228 million deal at age 32. Albert Pujols signed a 10 year $240 million deal. Alex Rodriguez a 10 year, $275m deal at 31. Miguel Cabrera signed an eight-year deal for $248m at 31. Zack Greinke penned a six-year pact for $205m at 32.
That top tier talent, even after they are in their 30’s, are still receiving more than $20 million in AAV.
Right now, Rizzo is the 11th highest paid first baseman in baseball, with an AAV $5 million less than Houston’s Yulieski Gurriel. The question starts to become, where does Rizzo fall in this list now, and where will he be on the list when he becomes a free agent?
Since Rizzo has been a Cub, there are only four first baseman that have played more games than he has. Of the four, there are only two with a higher OPS.
If we scale things back even more, starting the clock in the 2015 season, or when the Cubs became competitively relevant, Rizzo has the fourth highest fWAR (17.1), home runs (120), OPS (.893), and fourth least strikeout percentage (14%).
If we place Rizzo up above the upper half of the league’s 1B, then would he be worth a median line salary based on the top half? If we averaged out the top half of salaries at the position, then a deal with an average AAV of $18.5 would fall in-line. The average amount of years falls between seven or eight years, making a potential deal (assuming a continued level of play) around eight years and $148 million.
Do the Cubs, or any other team for that matter, believe that an eight-year deal paying $18.5 million a season is a great investment for a 32 year old first baseman?
The league probably wouldn’t. This is why the best opportunity for Rizzo to earn a max deal, at any point in his MLB career, would be if the Cubs extended him early (again). While the top talent in the league is still finding top dollars (albeit, needing to wait much longer than players are used to) there is a shift in free agency and the power free agents command.
Honestly, I don’t see that happening either. Rizzo plays the most replaceable position in baseball. Over the past four years the league has shied away from mega-deals for first baseman, outside of Eric Hosmer. Take 2017 for example, there wasn’t a single first baseman that earned a deal. In 2018, the only deals signed by first basemen were either minor league deals or one-year agreements. Rewind to the 2016 offseason and there were only four first basemen that signed deals for more than one year, Eric Thames 3-yr, Brandon Moss 2-yr, and Luis Valbuena 2-yr, and Sean Rodriguez 2-yr.
Now, of course someone would be highly interested in signing Rizzo, as guys like Hosmer and Chris Davis have shown the position can still be paid. The issue with Rizzo is of course the position, but he’s already shown signs of having back issues. Some have suggested that his back has caused a slight dip in overall production in recent seasons, especially 2018.
All of these details cloud what Rizzo is worth, especially on the open market.
As far as the Cubs are concerned, and something that a lot of other teams wouldn’t account for, is his leadership capabilities. This is an incredibly difficult thing to put a value on. Like, do you say his presence in the locker room is worth four extra wins a season? Or that you can translate his leadership to $5 million?
There really isn’t a way to quantify that value. There’re some examples that you can partially point towards the value of leadership. Like following the 2016 World Series and with David Ross retiring. A lot of players felt that they missed a guy in the locker room pushing them daily for excellence. But knowing that, and with the de facto leader now being Rizzo, the Cubs have achieved less since Ross’ departure.
So all you can really say is Rizzo’s ability to be a vocal voice in the locker room is valued somewhere above the average player and David Ross.
At the end of all of this, I can see the Cubs coming to Rizzo at the end of 2019 and presenting an extension somewhere in the neighborhood of six to eight years, paying something north of $17 million and somewhere south of $21 million. If they did this, I think Rizzo would be smart, and ecstatic to accept that deal. This would certainly help solidify his wish of retiring as a Chicago Cub.
