Adam Warren Will be a Beast

Starlin Castro haters are happy, Castro lovers are angry, Baseball people are ecstatic. It is all because around seven o’clock central time Tuesday, this happened.

Starlin Castro trade is official: He goes to #Yankees for RHP Adam Warren and a player to be named later. #Cubs

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2015

Most Cubs fans didn’t know who Adam Warren is, and immediately were upset that the Cubs only received an unknown swingman/reliever in return for Castro, a 25 year old, three-time all star, and a player they’ve rooted for over the last six seasons.

We get a bullpen Pitcher for Castro? That's not enough #Cubs

— Chicago All Day!!!!! (@Ggdog108) December 9, 2015

While a part of me is upset to see Castro leave (that damn sentimental Cubs fan in me) my mind quickly shifted to, what exactly are the Cubs getting? That’s when I began to work, researched it, and penned it out for other fans as well.

When you first Google Adam Warren, you aren’t exactly blown out of the water. My first stop, and I just assume everyone else’s as well, is Baseball-Reference. There you find that he’s been a relatively successful reliever/swingman, but I want more from a guy that the Cubs traded their best homegrown prospect in ages (until Kris Bryant came around) for.

While I love the value in an inexpensive bullpen arm, his swingman reputation doesn’t excite most fans that were expecting to see the Cubs land a young stud pitcher that would solidify the rotation for several years to come. So while searching for proof that Warren is more, I came across this nugget.

“Adam Warren is a quality major league pitcher,” Epstein said. “We really came to feel the price of poker was very high to acquire starting pitching.”

Wait, so does that mean the Cubs are counting on him to start? Yes, yes it does.

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/674419400833921024

While this was interesting news, Warren has only seen limited time as a starter, and is still a relatively unknown in that role. So again, I began to investigate.

Adam Warren can help #Cubs rotation: 7-6 with 3.98 ERA and .693 OPS against in 20 career starts, all with an AL club.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2015

Warren has started 20 games for the New York Yankees, and while he was moderately successful (in the AL East this is considered fairly successful), he still had trouble locking down a starting role for a pitching inept Yankees. Causing me to wonder, why do the Cubs brass think he would be a valuable starter, if he couldn’t secure a job in New York?

I found that part of that answer was, the Yankees committed too much to their current starters and it would prove difficult to turn over the reigns to a relatively unknown. The other part was, he was too valuable as a spot starter on a team that couldn’t count on their starting pitchers to make 30 plus starts every year. He became the pitching version of another Cubs acquisition, Ben Zobrist, a super utility pitcher.

Calling it now: the new label for guys like Wood/Warren/Cahill/Richard and how Cubs might use them? Super Utility Pitcher.

— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) December 9, 2015

The Cubs and Joe Maddon love these types of guys as they allows Maddon to manage his staff in sort of a new approach that is catching on around the league. This approach limits the amount of times a batter sees a pitcher during a ball game, since hitters ability to be successful increases dramatically in their third at bat against a pitcher, the strategy implies that the pitcher is removed before the leadoff hitters third at bat. While this could be taxing on a bullpen, having experienced starters ready in the pen helps reduce the strain normally felt if a pitcher is removed from a game early.

Outside of how the Cubs plan on using him as a starter, I wanted to find out more about what to expect from Adam Warren, the starting pitcher. That is when I learned that the Cubs got a steal when they traded for Warren, as he projects even better than the coveted Shelby Miller.

I turned to another trusty source to learn more about Adam Warren. As Adam was expected to see more time starting in 2015, Fangraphs decided to break down Warren to determine how he would adapt to the new role on the team. The results were nothing short of impressive.

Fangraphs compiled data from every pitch he’s thrown up unto the 2015 season. They took that data, analyzed it, and compared it against every other pitchers’s data in the league. To say their findings were thorough would be an understatement. Through the research, they found Warren’s sinker compared to Zack Greinke‘s, his change-up compared to Michael Wacha‘s, and his curve compared to Shelby Miller’s. These are some of the best pitches, from some of the best pitchers in today’s game.

While I caution, none of this means he will be a Greinke, Wacha, or Miller, I still wanted more proof that Warren could be what Fangraphs was suggesting. So while Fangraphs data is excitable, I looked towards his ZiPS projections the information I had learned about the new Cubs hurler.

And Adam Warren as a starter. Holy God does ZiPS love Adam Warren. pic.twitter.com/hmKALxTCpC

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 9, 2015

ZiPS is a projection algorithm that was created by Dan Szymborski which uses a number of factors including (but not limited to) BABIP tendencies, regressions, pitcher’s tendencies, plus three to four years (dependent on the age of the player) of similar players outcomes. The system itself is highly respected throughout the Sabermetrics community, and while it isn’t a perfect system (it cannot factor injury, or other surprises) it is widely considered the best system in place for predicting future production.

All of that said, WOWSA! Warren’s projections as a starter are strong (a low 3.00 ERA over 150 innings)! Equally impressive are his projections as a reliever.

This is Adam Warren's ZiPS as a full-time reliever. pic.twitter.com/vGXcX8pTqp

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 9, 2015

The research had made me a believer in Adam Warren, and the trade of Starlin Castro reminded me of the mantra Theo Epstein and other newer baseball executives chant, you need to pay for future production, not past production. While Castro was the only thing to watch on the Northside for several years, was a three time all star, who compiled 991, Warren represents the Cubs future which has championship aspirations.

Warren’s predicted 10.6 fWAR as a starter over the next three seasons has proven to me that the Cubs front office addressing future production in this deal, and has certainly garnered the interest of other baseball people who are intrigued about what Warren will become.

https://twitter.com/LenKasper/status/674584364907302913

While I was almost completely sold on Warren, the last evidence i needed was how Adam compares to other names the Cubs were rumored to have interest in. I wanted to be assured that if the Cubs targeted a relatively unknown commodity, they were getting something that was comparable to the names being floated around. That is when I learned that not only does Warren compare, he’s projected to be better.

I saw a lot of people pointing out Warren’s projections were more favorable than Shelby Miller, you know… the guy the Atlanta Braves reportedly wanted anything from Javier Baez and Jorge Soler, to the Chicago Sun-Times post suggesting they even asked for Kris Bryant in return. Not only were his projections better, Miller’s estimated 5.8 WAR over the next three seasons were about half of Warren’s. HALF!

The Cubs received a pitcher projected to be twice as good as Shelby over the next three seasons, and it ONLY cost them Starlin Castro. That’s a huge win!

To top things off, these projections do not include the Chris Bosio factor. The Boz has had a positive impact on almost every pitcher he’s touched, and Warren should prove no different. Under Chris Bosio’s tutelage, Adam Warren will be a beast, in the National League, Adam Warren will be a beast, and over the next several cost controlled seasons you can expect that beast to thrive in Wrigley Field with the red and blue “C” on his chest.

Embrace Adam Warren Cubs fans, he’s going to be a good one.