Arrieta’s Rise to Dominance

We need to talk about this. Earlier, David discussed the outrageous insinuations via video that were made by Stephen A. Smith, followed by Skip Bayless, on ESPN’s First Take this morning here.

Here’s the video link to the full segment.

And here’s Jake’s response to Stephen A.:

Laughing is exactly what I will do. You continue to do your thing though. No one will undercut my hard work. @stephenasmith

— Jake Arrieta (@JArrieta34) April 27, 2016

One would imagine that when you’re a highly touted sports journalist, you would think (and maybe do some research) that you would think (get it?) before you spoke on a topic that’s so outrageous.

I almost wrote I expect this stuff from one of these two on that show, but I can’t expect them to blatantly provide information that they think a player is on PEDs. That’s ludicrous.

But, of course, they never fail to surprise. I was floored when I saw the video of this. First Take hardly ever talks about baseball, even in the summer. But, when someone comes off a Cy Young award season after not being that dominant before and is continuing the next season, the first thought for guys with such prowess as Stephen A. and Skip is steroids.

Hey, I get it. The guys who played baseball when these two were making their mark in the journalism world were dirty. Baseball has gone to such extravagant measures to prevent this from happening, and it rarely does.

Stephen A. first brings up Jake’s innings pitched the last few seasons. Please, if you watch the segment, take it with 49 grains of salt.

He only mentions major league innings from the past few seasons. Major League innings. He neglects the innings pitched ever since he’s been pitching professionally. Stephen A. is amazed how he goes from 75.2 innings in 2013 (those are just ML innings remember) to 156.2 in 2014, to 229 last season.

I’ll go through the rundown since 2008.
2008: 113 innings – High A
2009: 150.2 – 59 in AA and 91.2 in AAA
2010: 173.1 – 73 in AAA and 100.1 in MLB
2011: 119.1 – MLB (out the rest of the season in early August*)
2012: 170.2 – 56 in AAA and 114.2 in MLB
2013: 154.2 – 75.1 in MLB (CHC/BAL) and 79.1 in AAA (both)
2014: 156.2 – MLB
2015: 229 – MLB

2015 marked the sixth year Jake thew at least 150 innings in professional baseball.

*If he didn’t have a bone spur in his elbow in 2011, he would’ve (probably) finished with 150 innings.

Stephen A. isn’t giving false information. Rather, he is completely ignoring the minor league inning Jake put in those seasons. Minor league innings matter, too.

Something else I want to point out that David brings up in his video is that the Orioles tried to make Jake throw “normal” and not how what comes natural to him. Baltimore has a history of getting top pitching prospects (yes, Stephen A., Jake Arrieta was a top-40 prospect) and then tearing them up. They are not a model franchise (see Dexter Fowler’s contract issues, but that’s another issue).

Stephen A. turns the table to Skip. They both say they have no idea. Obviously they don’t. But they’re going to discuss it anyway.

Now look. What Stephen A. said is idiotic. I’m going to argue that what Skip says is even more ridiculous based on what Skip does. He eats freakishly healthy, works out, etc. Sounds like someone we know, doesn’t it?
“He came out of nowhere.”

Ugh. As I mentioned a little bit ago, and David does in the video, Jake was a top-40 prospect with the Orioles. Now, I’ll concede the point that his results came from nowhere, despite him showing signs of being really good as soon as he came to the Cubs because they let him throw his natural way.

In his nine starts for the Cubs after some time in AAA, Jake had a 3.66 ERA with a K/9 at 6.4 and BB/9 at 4.2. Before 2013, Jake always had a K/9 around eight and a highish walk rate, too. But, there were signs of improvement in the short time on the North Side.

In 2014, Jake threw 156.2 innings all in Chicago. His ERA dropped to 2.56 and FIP was at 2.26. He lowered his BB/9 to 2.4, which any pitcher would have more success after doing that as much as he did. He also elevated his K/9 to over nine. He finished ninth in Cy Young voting, and if the Cubs didn’t limit him to 25 starts then maybe he would’ve finished higher.

Skip goes on to mention how Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Max Scherzer were good from the beginning. I’ll give him one: Kershaw.

David discusses a little bit about Scherzer, and I’m going to go a little into Greinke’s numbers.

In his rookie season, Greinke started 24 games and threw a 3.97 ERA in 145 innings pitched. His K/9 was only 6.2, but his BB/9 was 1.6 (anyone will have success with a walk rate that low).

His next season was awful. Greinke started 33 games and accumulated a 5.80 ERA over that time. His BB/9 elevated, as his K/9 lowered. But an ERA that bad and a WHIP of over 1.5 means he just didn’t have the stuff.

He only appeared in three games the next season for Kansas City, and had a FIP of 5.04 in 6.1 innings.

Over 2007 and 2008, Greinke had a combined ERA of 3.55 in 46 starts and 84 total appearances. His BB/9 stayed constant from 2005, but he elevated his K/9 to eight.

THEN he had his breakout season when he won the Cy Young…in 2009…his sixth year in the league…in which he just wasn’t very good until the previous two seasons, when he was all right.

The next few seasons, Greinke was okay…nothing too special until he was traded to the Dodgers. We know how that worked out.

Stephen A. then brings up miles per hour on pitches. David points out that Jake’s fastball is average .2 mph faster than before. Point two. As in a decimal before the number two.

Which leads him to arm fatigue. When you throw six seasons of over 150 innings, a pitcher will be able to throw a lot of innings. When a pitcher is having a season like Jake did in 2015, he’s going to throw even more. But did Stephen A. see the playoff games Jake pitched? He accumulated a 6+ ERA and…wait for it…he credited it to arm fatigue.

I mean, duh, his arm was tired. He admitted it. This is why he said in Spring Training he would be “ok” with an innings limit this season. He doesn’t need to throw the complete game when the team is up by seven runs. He only did last week because he was throwing a no-hitter.

I wish there was a way to calculate high stress innings because I will guarantee you he didn’t throw that many in 2015.

Here are links to Jake Arrieta’s FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference pages so you can look more into it if you’d like.

Has it passed through your mind? Maybe. But, when you’re a sports journalist with such pedigree as these two, wouldn’t they think before they even speak on such a topic? They don’t come out directly and say they think Jake is using PEDs. However, they bring it up because they obviously need higher ratings. It’s just jaw-dropping that they would even bring this up and not look at websites designed to show you all stats, advanced metrics and basic stats.

I didn’t need FIP to prove an argument here. All I needed was innings pitched and K/9 and BB/9.

Good thing Skip’s leaving in August. Hopefully this show is done before then.

BTW, we should be laughing. Because hating as hard as these two did is pathetic.

*Featured image is courtesy of elichap.sportsblog.com