Chicago is the Center of the Baseball Universe, Again

There is no other city that becomes more alive in the summer months than Chicago. From street fests, our parks, to the gorgeous beaches, there is nothing like Chicago in the summer time.

Except perhaps, Chicago in the summer time when both baseball teams are playing well.

While it rarely happens, the times that it does had Chicago buzzing a little louder, shining a little brighter, and while I have no proof to this -the weather is just that much better.

And we all deserve it! Struggling through grueling winters, with snowfalls taller than our dogs and temps below zero. We deserve it. We get up in the mornings, lace our boots, and deal with the frigid cold with the belief that come summer we are the envy of the world. This year we just may happen to be the envy of the baseball world as well.

Look around the baseball fan pages on Facebook, or forums throughout the internet. People are already talking about Chicago our teams, and the potential for an all Chicago World Series. Surprisingly, you’ll also see the jealousy from other fans as well. Odd, especially for a city that is known more for its failure to win is being attacked because we seemingly have turned those tides.

The baseball season is just a month in, and both Chicago teams own the best records in each league. The Chicago White Sox are 18-8 on May 3rd, a far cry from the 8-14 at this time last season. The Chicago Cubs are doing everything in their power to fulfill their lofty expectations from experts all around the world, sitting at 18-6.

With just 26 and 24 games played respectively, fans have already begun whispering what it would look like if the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs met in the World Series.

While yes, this is getting out in front of ourselves a little bit, it is still something fun to talk about. You’ll see, it’s not that far-fetched either. The White Sox and the Cubs are the two best teams in baseball, and they are going about it in different ways.

Chicago White Sox – 18-8, 1st American League

One would think that this is closer to how the White Sox should have played last season. Great pitching, strong defense, and the ability to score enough runs to compete in the AL Central. While it turned south quick for the Southsiders in 2015, the pitching formula is responsible for their early success in 2016.

The rotation is second in the AL in opponent OPS while their bullpen is first. Jose Quintana and Chris Sale lead the American league with a 1.3 and 1.2 WAR, respectively, and Quintana also leads the league with  a 1.77 FIP. All the while their staff as a whole leads the AL with a 4.5 WAR.

The White Sox currently have three starters rated in the top 15 in all of baseball in ERA – Quintana (1.47), Sale (1.66), and Mat Latos (1.84). Oh, and I haven’t even begun to speak about their closer, David Robertson.

Robertson currently is second in baseball with 8 saves, and in his 11 appearances, he has 14 strikeouts, a 1.66 FIP, 2.74 xFIP, and a 0.79 ERA. The ONE RUN that he has given up was in a non-save appearance.

Now here is what I believe is the biggest difference between the 2015 version and the 2016 version of the White Sox. This year’s club actually catches the ball. According to Fangraphs’ Def statistic, the White Sox were the worst fielding team – BY FAR – in 2015, with a -41.5 Def rating. Currently, in 2016, they are posting an 8.2 rating (Kansas City leads the AL with a 12.7 Def rating), which is an incredible turnaround in just one offseason.

This is a HUGE improvement that is paying off extremely well for their pitching staff. Take Chris Sale for instance. In 2015 teams had a .302 BABIP against him, meaning if they made contact, opponents were hitting .302 on those balls hit into play. So far in 2016 however, teams have a .207 BABIP against Sale. While some of that could be hitters finding holes, a lot of it had to do with poor defenders not able to reach balls that were hit, fielders not able to make those just above routine plays, and fielders putting additional pressure on the staff causing the advantage to tilt into the hitters favor based on situations (men on base, runners in scoring position, etc.).

Putting your pitching staff in a bad position because of poor fielding has ALWAYS been the undoing of a starting rotation. Whether it is Little League, high school, college, minors, or the pros – no pitcher is good enough to overcome poor fielding behind him.

Chicago Cubs – 18-6, 1st National League

The Cubs have been dictating the gameplay all season long. We had already showed you how the Cubs were forcing pitchers to throw them 16% more pitches than ANY TEAM THREW in 2015, but I’m about to take it further. National League teams have thrown an average of 3,770 pitches and have faced an average of 976 hitters so far on the season. NL pitchers are averaging 3.5 pitches per at bat and 148 pitches per ballgame. The Cubs however are seeing a remarkable 6 pitches per plate appearance, and 161 pitches over the course of a ballgame.

This is almost 10% more than any other team in the National League.

Equally astounding is, while the rest of the National League is averaging 3.7 walks per game, the Cubs are drawing an amazing 5.6 per contest, or the average amount of walks the Washington Nationals and New York Mets give up – COMBINED. That is on average two more baserunners than anyone else in the league, just from walking. This is step one and two of being able to score more than 6 runs per game, tops in the NL.

Step three is, the Cubs are swinging at pitches in the zone.

 

 

 

 

This tells the story of how and why the Cubs walk so much, see so many more pitches than other teams, and eventually score more runs. They rarely swing at pitches out of the zone (22% O-Swing) and even though they are selective on pitches in the zone, when they swing they are making contact (84.2% Z-Contact). While this team will finish the season in the upper tier on the strikeout leaderboard, their selective process and ability to work counts is paying huge dividends on the scoreboard.

While these are all reasons both Chicago teams are currently on top of the AL and NL, we hardly scratch the surface. The Cubs are getting outstanding pitching from their staff and the White Sox have been getting great production from guys like Adam Eaton and Brett Lawrie. But there is reason to believe that there is much more success to come. The White Sox have yet to get a ton of production from guys like, Dioner Navarro, Avisail Garcia, Todd Frazier, and their most dangerous hitter – Jose Abreu. Flip side, the Cubs have yet to much from Jorge Soler, Miguel Montero, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell, or their best hitter – Anthony Rizzo.

Yes, it is too early to buy your Cubs White Sox World Series tickets. But wouldn’t it be an awesome sight to see? The White SOx dominate pitching, verse the incredible patient Cubs offense. The Northside vs the Southside. The battle for the city’s bragging rights. Yes it is too soon, but for the greatest summer city there is in the world, it sure is great to daydream about it.