Chris Coghlan is more valuable than you think
Chris Coghlan: 2009 NL Rookie of the Year, 1.3 fWAR combined over the next four seasons, 5.7 fWAR combined in 2014 and 2015 with the Cubs after signing a minor league deal before the 2014 season.
Pretty cool, eh?
In 432 plate appearances in 2014, Coghlan tallied nine home runs, 41 runs batted in, and 50 runs scored along with a .169 ISO (SLG% minus batting average), which was the highest of his career. Seeing nearly all of his action in left field, Coghlan still produced a negative Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -1.0, but it was the best of his career, too.
In 2015, the lefty moved around a tad with about 10% of his innings coming in the infield. With nearly 900 innings of work in the outfield, Coghlan’s hard work paid off as he produced a 9.0 UZR, which was the first positive in that metric in his career.
Seeing 71 more plate appearances in 23 more games in 2015, Coghlan blasted 16 home runs and scored 64 times. His BABIP was .284, the lowest of his career, and that reflected in his batting average. He also saw a dip in his weighted on-base average (wOBA), about 20 points from 2014. Something positive was a 2.5% increase in his walk rate while maintaining his K%, and also raising his ISO to .193 to set a new career high.
You see that fWAR over the last two seasons and you’re probably thinking: they seem pretty similar to me; 2015 had better traditional numbers, but saw some dips in a few key metric numbers from the year before. 5.7 though…WOW.
Yes, WOW is correct. You may be surprised to learn (if you don’t already know) that, in 2015, Coghlan was nearly an entire win better than his 2014 campaign. His offensive numbers may not have been as bolstering for you to think that he produced a 3.3 fWAR in 2015 as a primary platoon guy, but we have to go back to his defense: 9.0 UZR (first time being in the positive) and had zero defensive runs saved (DRS). Yes, zero!
Now you’re probably thinking: zero DRS?! Lol that’s not good.
Au contraire! In the previous four seasons, Coghlan had a -35 DRS, posted a 2 in only 770 innings in 2010, and was in the negative his rookie season. In theory, his defense made him .9 wins (almost one win) better than what he was in 2014 just by itself.
Earlier today, BP Wrigleyville discussed whether Coghlan was the best fourth outfielder in the league (I suggest you go peruse through that article). With the almost-certain defensive scheme being Soler in right, Heyward in center, and Schwarber in left, Coghlan appears to be the first guy out. When thinking about him seeing time again in the infield: Rizzo at first, Zobrist at second, Addi at short, and KB at third. Then you have Javy as the primary backup for nearly all of those positions, including the outfield as he has seen time in center in the Dominican league.
Now, with him coming off his two best seasons (I’ll include his rookie year as a tie with 2014 for simplicity’s sake) and what looks to be like a crowded roster of players, is now the time to trade him when he’s at his highest value? In short: yes.
The return doesn’t have to be great, but Coghlan is worth something decent as he can step into a clubhouse and contribute everyday as a corner OF, and at the very worst give you 400-500 quality plate appearances from multiple positions on the diamond. I’m sure the Cubs would seek a young starting pitcher still in the minors.
A team that comes to mind is the Angels, as they’ve been looking for an outfielder, but have been reluctant to spend money on any of the big-time guys. The only one left is Cespedes, and it doesn’t seem likely at this point. To me, they are an obvious match. To the contrary, however, is their lack of farm products. Four of the top 10 prospects, according to mlb.com, are pitchers. The thing is with the Angels, a top prospect for them isn’t necessarily a top-10ish prospect for another team. A guy like Joe Gatto is someone I would like to see the Cubs go for if the front office also sees a match with the Angels. However, I’m not sure if they would want to trade a guy who’s ETA isn’t for another few years for a player who only has a year left on his current deal.
Another team is the Orioles who, without looking at any of their prospects, I would automatically (probably) be OK with as a trade partner. See: Cy Arrieta and Tilted-hat Strop. They’re decent pitchers.
Expanding just a touch more on a trade possibility, I don’t believe Coghlan could net a lot as the primary piece in a trade. That’s probably why a deal with the Angels/Orioles might not work. With talks supposedly still going on with the Rays about a hitter-for-pitcher swap, Coghlan could be a second-tier guy the Rays could use, which could also land the Cubs a young, controllable pitcher along with another piece to help the team in 2016 or the future.
Signing Coghlan to a minor league deal couldn’t have worked out better for the Cubs. After sticking with him for two (pretty great) seasons, I think it may be time to free him to a team that could use a quality starter in a corner OF spot since there’s just not a lot of room anymore on this Cubs squad. I’d be happy to see him stay, but he’s expendable and would like to see him contribute to the Cubs netting a nice return.
*picture is courtesy of chicagotribune,com
