Could Kris Bryant’s Next Contract Surpass Bryce Harper’s?
The wait finally ended last week for baseball fans as free agent outfielder, Bryce Harper, and the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a record-setting contract, 13 years for $330 million (guaranteed). It is a ton of money for a great player. Whether he’s worth it or not is only something time will tell. So, for now, we can only say one thing: wow!
Of course, once the shock wears off, we can then say the second thing that comes to mind—who’s going to surpass him? Now that Harper has set the bar as high as he has, we want to see who is going to reset it. We want to see who is going to get more.
In the years ahead, there will be a few candidates that could come close. Mookie Betts and Mike Trout are the two most likely to do it. While it would be harder to justify making it less likely to happen, Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant may have a shot as well.
He is undoubtedly one of the elite players in the game today. Along with being a solid infielder, he has been productive on the offensive end as well averaging .285, 27 home runs, and 82 RBIs. Just like the argument can be made that Harper is young and will only get better with the time, the same can be said about Bryant (who turned 27 this year).
Last year wasn’t a great year for him, but he was battling through injuries for much of the season. Bryant is looking forward to proving all the critics that came out of the walls wrong this season now that he is healthy. He talked about his critics with Jesse Rogers of ESPN:
“…. When you’re not playing, you have a whole lot of time to just sit there and either go through a Twitter rabbit hole and start seeing things about yourself or seeing things about ‘trade him’ and this and that. And I’m like, ‘All right, I’m motivated. Keep ’em coming. Bring it.’”
Assuming he does get back to hitting around .290 and 30 home runs as he did in 2016 and 2017, he’ll have a pretty good case for a hefty pay raise when the time comes. Hefty enough to rival Harper’s? Probably not. Still, not because he isn’t worth an insane amount of money like Harper.
He just isn’t going to be worth as insane an amount for one reason and one reason only—his age. Bryant is 27 now, and when he is set to test free agency following the 2021 season, he will be 30. No one is going to give a 30-year old player a 13-year contract worth $330 million.
If the Cubs were to offer him the right extension now, Bryant has said he would listen. He has also said that there has been no talk with the Cubs front office about an extension. Nonetheless, the club hasn’t been bringing in too many new faces leading some to speculate either the team doesn’t have the money or doesn’t want to spend it.
Why pay him more now when they can get away with paying him less during his last two arbitration-eligible years?
Even if he is seen as a better player in a few years (when he hits free agency) than Harper is (or was when he signed his contract), the odds on him signing a Harper-like deal are minimal. At that point in his career, it is more likely that he’ll have five to eight excellent years left in him making a Nolan Arenado-like extension more of a possibility.
Harper’s deal only averages $25.4 million a season anyway. Arenado’s averages $32.5 million. Seven million more a season is not a bad trade-off for a shorter contract. If the Cubs do not pay him accordingly, someone will.
