Cubs and RISP

Over the past several seasons there has been concern on the Chicago Cubs ability to consistently score with runners in scoring position (RISP). The biggest of the concerns have been around the core players, and especially in some of the most “clutch” moments. So, we wanted to take a dive into the Cubs and RISP production – even if it is after only three games. (Which we should know right now doesn’t tell much of a story at all).

Cubs and RISP

In 2020 the Cubs slashed .241/.360/.382 with RISP. The OBP was impressive, however their avg in those spots was lower than what you would expect and the slugging % was far lower than you would expect from a team that features some of the hitters they had. 2019, they slashed .259/.354/.481, which is much better and ranked 15th in AVG, eighth in OBP, and sixth in SLG. In the 2018 season, they posted a .247/.344/.378 line and their .722 OPS was 10th worst in baseball (remember, this is the season Theo suggested the offense broke).

This is where I think David Ross’s stance on having the players be more selfish will pay off. In each of the last several seasons, their offense has ranked rather highly in OBP in these RISP spots. That’s ultimately a good thing. But, the other side of that coin is teams know that they could pitch around the Cubs sluggers and be rewarded. To top it off, players like Kris Bryant have seen a near-criminal enlargement to his strike zone in the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Small sample size…but the computer is telling us that umpires have been calling balls as strikes for Kris Bryant. This stuff is prone to substantial error, so it's not "extremely accurate" right now.

But basically…KB is getting unlucky.

(Click on the photo for the '18-'20) pic.twitter.com/ngmHmUdnrH

— Brendan Miller (@CubsRelated) September 9, 2020

In the graph, the red represents a near 100% chance of a pitch being called a strike. In that 2020 season, while Kris had a broken wrist and other health concerns, having a strikezone that was 36% larger than the next closest player in the game didn’t help matters. Look, I am an umpire coordinator. I teach umpires how to call games and one area I tell them they absolutely cannot call a strike is low and away or low an in. A hitter cannot hit those pitches consistently and Bryant has been getting at bats robbed from him over the past two seasons.

So how could one be expected to perform, consistently, when a professional umpire – who should be the best in the world – is consistently calling bad strikes? For an entire group of players that have above average understandings of the strike zone, you cannot expect them to swing at these pitches.

2021 Cubs and RISP

So, with the check on the past and some of the issues that occurred, here’s a look at the 2021 season, Cubs and RISP, and what we might be able to expect.

Right now, the Cubs rank 27th in baseball with a .367 OPS with RISP. They are slashing .125/.242/.125 with three singles to their credit. Perhaps most alarming is their 37% K rate in these spots. Now, surprisingly, the Cubs have scored 9 runs with RISP in 2021 which is better than all other teams in the bottom 10 spots. Helping that number are the three sac flies they had on Opening Day, which don’t account for ABs. So while they end on positive results, they don’t really help other traditional stat lines.

Not only does commonsense tell us their production with RISP will improve, when we dig into these stats a little we immediately see where that would come from.

Currently, Javier Baez has appeared in 7 ABs with RISP, he has a single hit. Joc Pederson has had 6 ABs in this situation, with no hits (2 RBI). And the best performing player in these spots is Kris Bryant, with a healthy .500/.750/.500 line (1 RBI). When we look at RISP/2 Out things get even bleaker as the team has yet to record a hit, walk, or RBI. In fact, they’ve struck out in all but four of those plate appearances.

So, honestly there hasn’t been a big enough sample. But, we can draw some theories.

With runners on in general, the team is showing some of their past issues. There is an inability to get on base. In their 47 PA with runners on in the first three games, the Cubs’ hitters have reached base in only 12 of those chances. There is only one extra-base hit, a double from Anthony Rizzo.

Now, where I feel good about this team is here. They are making a lot of loud contact so far in 2021. In Sunday’s game alone, the Cubs hit 11 balls (whether actual hits or outs) that had exit velocities over 95 MPH. So far in 2021, they have had 28 balls leave the bat at over 95 MPH.

Exit velocity doesn’t have a direct relation to success with RISP, but we have seen that balls hit above 95 MHP have a greater chance of being hits than balls hit under that mark. This should make a ton of sense since a ball hit harder (and faster) will allow for less time to react. The biggest range in the world cannot account for a ball hit 110 MPH in the hole, but hit a ball 75 MPH in that same spot and a shortstop just might get to it.

Ultimately, this is very much a wait and see situation. Baez and Pederson have been up the most with RISP which makes sense since they are up just after the top four hitters, who (outside Willson Contreras) have started 2021 pretty well. Now, unfortunately, Baez and Pederson have always been very susceptible to the strikeout and that hasn’t changed in the 2021 season (as yet).