Cubs Are in on deGrom, Judge – Here’s Why to Believe it

Yes, the Chicago Cubs have been oddly quiet these past few weeks. Their perceived non-action is something that has angered fans across social media. One such fan, BleacherNation writer, Michael Cerami took to the Twitter to blast the Cubs efforts, or lack thereof. Some fans have started to prepare themselves for another offseason of mostly underwhelming signings (Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki notwithstanding). This would be a disappointment since players like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Justin Verlander, and Jacob deGrom are available. All players that can help the Cubs compete for an NL Central title in 2023. While it has been mostly quite, late last week Mike Puma of the New York Post suggested the Cubs are in on deGrom, and MLB.com is says the Cubs are interested in Judge.

Cubs interested or Jed’s Lawyer Speak?

There’s several fans on Twitter which suggest Jed Hoyer is extremely good at lawyer-speak. He is great at saying things, that don’t say anything at all. All of which cannot be proven true or false and helps to cover his public persona. It is easy for Hoyer to stand up in front of the media at the GM Meetings and tell everyone that the Cubs will be active in the offseason. It is easy for him to tell fans that ownership promises the financial resources for any free agents.

In either case, Jed isn’t lying. Jed can be involved in discussions and just not land someone. Ownership can suggest the financial resources are available but they don’t spend. We may assume that means they can offer deGrom $50 million a season over the next 8 years, but it might mean they will land a one-year $5 million deal with a utility outfielder. But, it doesn’t mean is isn’t true. It doesn’t suggest the lawyer-speak was untrue, but it doesn’t necessarily suggest it was accurate.

Why to believe the rumors

Regardless of what is going on, the last few weeks the Cubs have been noticeably silent. Outside the New York Post report, fans haven’t seen any action and were stung when they saw Jose Abreu sign with the Houston Astros. I don’t blame Abreu, as I would also sign the longer contract with the defending World Series Champion. But him choosing the Astros irked Cubs fans that thought Abreu was the Cubs top priority.

In watching the way Hoyer operates, this Cubs front office prefers to work in stealth. Other than reports saying the Cubs have interest here or there, there aren’t many leaks on the Cubs front. Case in point, outside the initial reports of interest, did we have a report of the Cubs meeting with Abreu’s agent?

Understand, what you hear about the Cubs in the media is strategic. Sometimes it is strategically placed by the Cubs and sometimes it is done by an agent. See, the Cubs will leak to someone that they have interest in all four of the big shortstops available this winter. Internally, they likely have genuine interest in maybe two of them, but certainly not all three. So, leak a story to the press saying they have interest and have met representatives of all four in hopes to pull the market to them. An agent will leak the story to help drive up costs. Hey, Mr. Putila, I know you want Aaron Judge, but it looks like the Cubs are also interested and we’d like to see what they offer.

Those leaks help on a number of fronts, but the biggest for the Cubs, and Hoyer, might be showing the fans that they are playing ball this winter. However, the real strategy is locked away in the Cubs war room where only a select few know the actual plan and actual interest.

So, the Cubs might have actual interest in Judge, but their strategy is likely being played out in silence instead of through the media. We have all saw the video of Judge visiting San Francisco, we have all seen the pictures of Koudai Senga on the Oracle Park video board, these aren’t accidental, it is part of the strategy. Likewise, the Cubs have a strategy of working in the shadows as they approach the Winter Meetings.

Hoyer has operated like this in the past, recall the trade for Jose Quintana, that final stretch when they landed Yu Darvish, dealing Kris Bryant to the Giants. A lot of the noise was distant or non-existent, which allowed Jed to work in quiet and get the best value. (Well, maybe not the best value in that Quintana deal)

The Cubs, *can* spend a lot on one or a few players this offseason, but there’s a sense that they want to do it on their terms. To get that, they need to be that “mystery team” or do so under the cloak of secrecy. So if they are publicly quiet on a player, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re not working towards an offer or a deal.

Correa, others still in the mix?

One thing I learned when talking about any contract offers the Cubs made (or, didn’t make) to Bryant was, they don’t make it official until they know they’re close to a deal. So they may pen it out on a napkin, toss “hypothetical” numbers to an agent, but they don’t submit official offers. This seems to align with the Carlos Correa conversations last offseason.

“Quick note on [Carlos Correa]. I’ve heard this from a couple people, one of them being really reliable. Correa and the Cubs, there was not just a little smoke there. There was a huge offer thrown Carlos Correa’s way in Chicago, but because of some representation issues, let’s say, with Correa and his camp, that deal never came to pass.”

The Cubs had genuine interest in signing Correa, and had several conversations with the star shortstop. When Correa changed agents last winter, somehow the offer from the Cubs didn’t carry over to Scott Boras. We also heard some rumblings that the offer was never actually made. From experience, I strongly believe the Cubs never submitted anything official and only spoke in hypotheticals. When the agent change was made, the hypothetical wasn’t addressed and Correa signed with Minnesota.

So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cubs and Boras have picked up conversations quite a bit these last few weeks, in silence, and have traded some napkins with long crooked numbers on them. I would also assume they have done the same with Xander Bogaerts and even deGrom. This should line themselves up for more advanced conversations during the Winter Meetings.

The one thing that causes pause here, this approach doesn’t seem to mesh with the way Boras likes to work (agent for both Bogaerts and Correa). I understand it, and if I were an agent, I wouldn’t take a napkin offer serious. If I’m representing a player and I have two teams submitting strong offers and I have another team talking in hypotheticals, I won’t waste time with that third team and will only present the real offers.

Ultimately, who knows if the Cubs are offering terms that will get the job done, but, their preference is to work in the shadows. Is that preference causing them to lose out on players? Maybe? Does that preference look like they are quieter than fans would all like? Also, maybe? So, Michael Cerami, it is ok to be mad and other fans, it is ok to question if they’ll do anything of any significance.

The team is likely doing what they do, and when you work this way you win some and you lose some. Hopefully soon, the Cubs will win one.