Could the Cubs be the Best of All-Time?
Yes, it is still early. Like really early. Like if this was a marathon (which it is) the runners wouldn’t have hit their first water mark, early. So I must preference this all with, it is early. But doesn’t it feel like this marathon has an elite Kenyan runner (Cubs) matched up against the Chicago matadors (rest of baseball)?
Part of me wants to ensure that I remain even-keeled, and just enjoy the ride. Part of me wants to crown this team. Then part of me, which is probably winning at the moment, is in between the two, enjoying every lopsided win with cautious optimism while planning how I’ll be in Wrigley during October.
While yes, there is a little bit of putting the cart ahead of the horse here, there’s statistical reason to do so. While we have heard ad nauseam about the team’s incredible run differential of 143, which is more than double that of the second best team the Boston Red Rox (70), there is a bigger reason to be optimistic about the team’s continued success this season.
The Cubs starting rotation.
Not only is the Cubs rotation the best in baseball through the first two plus months of the season, but their incredible pace is setting them up to be the best rotation in the live ball era (since 1920). The Cubs starters have a ridiculous ERA of 2.30 (WOW) at the moment, and if this incredible performance continues they are set to beat the old mark, by the 1968 St. Louis Cardinals (2.40).
The Cubs pitchers also benefit from the fifth highest rated defensive team, according to Fangraphs. Additionally, when the Cubs offense is hitting, and giving this Cubs staff a lead, opposing teams press, which plays into the pitchers advantage.
#Cubs starting pitching – this season
2.30 ERA, 372.0 IP, 260 Hits, 362 K, 0.970 WHIP
Opponents hitting .198/.261/.300— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) June 8, 2016
Again, this is early… but this Cubs staff is putting the team on a path to possibly be the best ever. The 1927 New York Yankees, widely considered the best team to ever play, are in line to be crushed by this Chicago Cubs team, from a run differential standpoint, WAR, as well as total wins – the 2016 Cubs should destroy the Yankees of ’27.
This might be the most amazing reason the Cubs just might push the all-time greatest teams. Runs allowed.
The Cubs have only allowed a league low 164 runs this season, 29 less than the New York Mets, who is second best team in this category and 71 runs better than the Cleveland Indians who boast the lowest in the American League. While this is a stat that you could assume the Cubs lead in, since their entire pitching staff has an ERA of 2.56 and their team defense is rated as one of the best in the league.
Their pace is setting them up for another live ball era record in allowing the least runs throughout a season. Again, we are still early in the season, and you would imagine that some regression back to the mean will happen at some point, but the fact of the matter is this team is on pace to give up 393 runs in 2016, which is 79 runs fewer than the 1968 St Louis Cardinals, who hold the 162-game season record for least runs surrendered. What is more impressive is, they aren’t that far off a pace to match the 1918, 154-game record set by the Boston Red Sox.
At some point it will be ok to finally say this team is good and could push the all-time teams. At some point the fact that the Cubs have only lost four games this season by more than three runs will mean something to the naysayers. At some point the fact that the Cubs have won 21 games by five or more runs in their first 58 games of the 2016 season will be enough for the doubters to start to believe.
Sure it is early, and sure Cubs fans above all other fans know the heartache of what can come. But at some point, with all of the evidence on the field, it will be ok for all of us to believe in what we witnessing.
