Theo’s Best Trade: Hint- It’s Not the Arrieta Trade
Rizzo was drafted by the Boston Red Sox under the Theo/Jed regime in 2007. In 2010, Hoyer would be with the San Diego Padres and would move his all-star MVP contending 1B Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres in exchange for Anthony Rizzo and a slew of other prospects. That deal had a ripple-effect on the Chicago Cubs that no one in baseball could have possibly seen coming at the time.
It would be the beginning of the end of Theo Epstein in Boston. That summer, the Red Sox would continue changing their approach from an organic-growth roster to that of high-dollar free agent and blockbuster trade acquisitions. Namely, Carl Crawford.
Theo Epstein and the Red Sox would have a historic collapse to end the 2011 season, he would leave Boston, and, with new ownership in tow, join Tom Ricketts in Chicago for an all-out rebuild of the roster from top-to-bottom. Minor league to major league and so on.
Within two days of signing on with the Cubs, Theo Epstein got the band back together in Chicago , with Jed Hoyer making a lateral move of GM of Padres to GM of the Cubs, while Jason McLeod would get on the same plane as his buddy Jed, and sign on as Head of Player scouting and development.
First order of business for Jed. What else would you expect? Continue stalking Anthony Rizzo.
Jed was the guy that had scouted and recommended Rizzo to be drafted in 2007, he was THE GUY who then traded for him in 2010. He was also the guy who may have called him up too early for the Padres in 2011, and for that, we thank him.
Rizzo would have an extremely poor dress rehearsal in the show in 2011, as he came up in June and July and only batted .143 while striking out 30% of the time. Meanwhile, the Cubs had an electric arm in Andrew Cashner who was having some trouble staying healthy, however had looked potentially dominating when he was able to stay on the mound.
With the new regime of Theo, Jed, and Jason all in place, there was one goal about to be implemented. Draft and acquire true-hitters with a solid approach. While the market was still swimming with teams over-paying for pitchers, hitters had become something of an “under-appreciated asset”. You could acquire a young, controllable hitter much easier than a young, controllable pitcher. So when the Cubs called the Padres to discuss a one-for-one swap it didn’t take long for San Diego to agree.
Even though fans were clamoring for a big-money signing of Prince Fielder or waiting on the “Bryan Lahair train” to come and save the Cubs franchise, the new front-office brass would have the brass balls enough to trade a young, controllable starting pitcher for a hitter who had struggled mightily in limited time.
So that’s how we got here. Now what has happened since then, you ask?
Anthony Rizzo is a bonafide superstar. He’s got his own commercials, his own cereal, but most importantly, he has one hell-of-a stick at the dish.
In the last two years he has been in the top-10 in voting for the NL MVP (and that includes a 2014 last place NL Central team), he has been good for 11.2 WARP, and he has owned a stat line at the plate of :
| .278 | .386 | .524 | .391 | 150 |
This is while striking out only 16% of the time and walking nearly 12% of the time. Additionally, as of this past weekend he had the most home runs since 2013 in the National League. He has been the anchor.
More importantly, though, he has been THE leader. Whether it be that work-ethic we talked about which has helped reduce his strikeouts percentage from 30% in 49 games with the Padres in 2011 all the way down to a minuscule 15% in 2015 and 14% through the first 19 games this season, or whether it be when he put the NL Central on notice that the Cubs were not to be pushed around any more:
http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDsMlEaAwBY
(and he’s made them pay on the field ever since)
Now don’t get me wrong, Andrew Cashner has not been bad since leaving the Cubs by any means. By all accounts, he has been a fine number 3 or number 4 starter in the Major Leagues, totaling 4.6 WARP over the last 2 seasons. He just hasn’t been even close to the realm of having an Anthony Rizzo-type impact.
Everything that had to happen for the Cubs to get Anthony Rizzo makes his ascension and the Cubs ascension seem almost kismet.
A life-long Bostoner in Theo Epstein leaving after going against his own conventional wisdom during the 2010 offseason before experiencing one of the worst collapses in MLB history(to current Cubs manager Joe Maddon, mind you) to end 2011. Jed and Jason hopping on a plane within 48 hours to join their boy in the windy city. Jed completing his love affair of Anthony Rizzo with one final trade taking place. It may not had been fate, but it was certainly more than just chance.
I get it. The Arrieta trade will likely go down as one of the most lopsided of any team in history, ever. On par with some of the Cubs horrendous trades involving Josh Donaldson, Chris Archer, and (gulp) Lou Brock. Statistically-speaking the Arrieta deal takes the cake, ice cream, and sprinkles.
However, if I can adjust my thinking away from statistics on this one and give a heavy-weighted advantage to the intangibles of Anthony Rizzo, anyone can. And let’s not forget, also, that the Cubs have him locked up on what will likely be the most team-friendly contract of any position player post arbitration-eligible through 2021.
Yes, Jake Arrieta’s trade has been a thing of magnificent beauty. The Anthony Rizzo trade, however, was a thing of absolute majesty that transformed the culture of the Chicago Cubs for years to come.
