Cubs Can Compete in 2020, But These Things HAVE to Happen

I’ve had this discussion before, but when a general manager believes in his guy, then they should be allowed to act as such. It doesn’t excuse fans or pundits from questioning their moves, or lack of moves in the Chicago Cubs case. The Cubs have had their most lackluster offseason since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer arrived in Chicago. It doesn’t help that for the second straight September the Cubs stumbled to the end of the regular season.

Then the Cubs didn’t make the playoffs for the first time in four years, they separated with Joe Maddon, and for the second straight offseason fans were promised sweeping changes. But the fact is, for the second straight offseason, hardly anything changed at all.

So if the Cubs aren’t making moves to change-up the roster, they’re telling us all that these are their guys. And if these are their guys, then they should be ok sticking with them, but we will certainly question those moves.

But let’s play this out and assume that this is a competitive roster. Let’s fast-forward to October and say the Cubs won the division and had a successful playoff run. Here’s what needs to happen for that to be true.

Cubs HAVE to be right about David Ross

David Ross be a good change for the Cubs. It might not all come at once, but he will eventually be a great manager in this game. But, with young managers, there is an expected learning curve and sometimes that learning curve isn’t complete until they are on their second job.

While it is weird bringing up AJ Hinch, since the cheating scandal, but outside banging on trash cans he was a very good manager. But he didn’t hit his potential until he was on his second job in baseball. In his first two years managing for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Hinch owned an 89-123 record. He was able to turn it around in Houston and now sits at a .558 winning percentage. And sure, we can look at the cheating scandal as to why he was successful, but he owns a .570 winning percentage on the road since he managed the Astros.

But Hinch isn’t the only one… guys like Joe Torre had a .458 winning percentage before the New York Yankees, Bruce Bochy was a “losing” manager in his first go-around in San Diego. Felipe Alou had a .491 winning percentage in Montreal and improved to a .529 % in San Francisco. So, Ross might not be successful in Chicago (I think he will be fine) but can still be a great MLB manager.

The Cubs need Ross to be able to take his relationships with the players to that next level. He has always been that guy in the clubhouse that has pushed guys to be better. He’s the guy that many superstar players have pointed to as the guy that showed them how to be successful in baseball and not just good individual players.

What a lot of people question is his ability to change from “friend” to “boss” but here’s the thing… most organizations don’t have “bosses” they have moved to a leader moniker. While, yes, you still report to a leader, there is a giant difference between a boss and a leader, and this is something that Ross should be able to transition into since he has almost always been a “leader” among the players. He’s the guy that has showed everyone in the clubhouse that he’s willing to do the work, and put in more work than anyone else. He’s had to have this mentality because when constructing a roster, do you keep the talented kid that hits 20 bombs or do you keep the back-up catcher that hits his weight?

Ross has put in more work because he was never the most talented around. He has pushed others because he was doing the extra work and it was a slap in the face to others that play when the most talented players weren’t putting in similar work. He will continue to be looked at as a leader not because he is a friend that sits on the top step of the dugout, but because he’s going to demand the most out of his guys and will show them he’s not afraid to get in the mud with them to prepare.

Kimbrel needs to be Kimbrel

The Cubs haven’t assembled the best, most well-known group of relievers. In fact, outside Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Jeremy Jeffress there isn’t a Cubs reliever that has pitched more than 200 innings in the big leagues. Looking at those three, are you comfortable with any of them?

You should be comfortable with Kimbrel. He is a future Hall of Fame pitcher. He has been the games best closer in this era, and there is no evidence that he is losing velocity or anything else. In fact, the issue seemed to be that his fastball was floating back over the plate which has allowed hitters to tee off. Which, we know this because on an ESPN telecast Ross was showing us what was going on with him. Luckily, this is a minor mechanical issue that can be fixed. This should be a positive tick in the box of both Kimbrel being good in 2020 but also a nod to Ross’s ability to fix pitching issues on the fly.

The other thing that should bode well for Kimbrel is the fact that he will have a real offseason. He went into the winter working out for the 2020 season. He didn’t have to worry about where he would play and will report to camp when all other pitchers and catchers report. He will have a regular spring, and barring injury he will enter the 2020 season as the closer of the Chicago Cubs. With things returning to normal in Kimbrel’s life, things should return to normal in his professional life as well. Athletes are creatures of habit, and when there’s a wrench that gets thrown in that habit things usually don’t turn out well.

Expect Kimbrel to have a giant season for the Cubs in 2020.

One of the lefties need to be special

It has been a couple of seasons since Jon Lester has been special. He is on the wrong side of 30, so much so that he’s now on the wrong side of 35. That doesn’t usually mean good things for a Major League pitcher.

2019 was Lester’s worst as a Cub. I don’t know if there is a way to sugarcoat that to make it look or sound better. His ERA was the highest it’s been since the 2012 season. His 1.497 WHIP was the highest it has been since his rookie season in Boston. His 171 innings was the least he’s thrown since his 2007 season. Finally, he gave up more hits per nine innings (10.7) than he has EVER allowed in his career.

Now, Lester did not benefit from all the issues with the baseball in 2019. From tighter seams to tighter wound cores, the ball would move left-to-right less than ever and when you throw 91 MPH and the ball is flat, MLB hitters will have a field day against you. The good news is, the call cannot continue to be “juiced” in 2020 and Lester should come back down a bit. The jury is still out on how much better of a season Lester can have in his year 36 season over his year 35 campaign.

On the other end, Jose Quintana can improve. We see the glimpses from him. He has to own records for the most games in a row giving up two or fewer runs and then getting blown up in his next game for eight runs in three innings. If he can figure out how to limit those bad games, even more, he can be a very, very strong third or fourth starter on this team. But, because he does have the tendency to have those blow-up games, he will continue to be a question mark.

Now, I’m not as down on Quintana as a lot of Cubs fans. We are talking about a guy that will spend most of the 2020 season as the team’s fourth starter. But he just hasn’t taken that step that Chicago White Sox were waiting for when he was there and continues to be an enigma in the Cubs rotation. He is still a Cub only because he comes on the cheap, but also because the Cubs don’t have many other options within their system to take that spot.

In 2020, the Cubs absolutely need both of these pitchers to have a better season than their 2019 and they will need one of them to play more like a number two than a number three or four.

Ian needs to be special

The Cubs banked on Ian Happ when they selected him ninth overall in the 2015 draft. He has been wrongly billed as a power hitter and I think he fell for that much more than anyone will let on. Back in 2017, Happ wowed Cubs fans in Spring Training with an incredible run of play. But, he was playing over his skis a bit and the Cubs still sent him back to the minors to fine-tune some things.

The biggest thing he was tuning-up was the length he gets in his swing when he starts fishing for homers. Now, don’t get me wrong, Happ will run into plenty of home runs over his career. It won’t surprise me if he becomes a 30+ homer guy at some point. But, he will do so by becoming a better all-around hitter and not the hitter that we saw in the 2018 season.

One of the early reports on Happ was when he hits a homer he will fall in love with it. It was almost like a home run was the worst thing for his swing. He will start searching out pitches he can drive and took harder than normal cuts that took him out of his happy zone. He would then get into stretches where he would strike out at a higher rate, turnover more balls than usual, and simply become undisciplined at the plate.

We saw a lot of this behavior in the 2018 season. After he hit that home run in the first at-bat of the year, he wouldn’t register his second hit until the fifth game of the season while collecting 10 strikeouts. He would hit his second home run in the 11th game of that season and strikeout another seven times in the next four games.

A lot of fans believe that he was sent to Triple-A to start the 2019 season because he was a bad player in 2018 and the Cubs wanted to give Albert Almora more chances. The fact of the matter is, they sent Happ to Iowa because they wanted him to fix the issues in his swing so when he came back up he would take the centerfield position away from Almora for good.

Almora has become nothing more than a decent defensive replacement in this league. His demise has nothing to do with opportunity, but everything to do with the fact that in the opportunities he’s received (many more than his fans actually give him credit for) he has proven that he just isn’t a capable MLB hitter. Happ has shown the ability to be, not only a capable hitter but someone that could potentially be a special type of hitter.

Now, don’t hang up on “special” I’m not declaring him the next Mike Trout here. I am saying he has the ability to be a reliable hitter in the Cubs lineup with the potential to put up .850 OPS seasons. When you have a Cubs lineup that looks like this…

• Kris Bryant .903 OPS
• Anthony Rizzo .924 OPS
• Javier Baez .847 OPS
• Kyle Schwarber .871 OPS
• Willson Contreras .888 OPS

…and then you add Happ with the ability to put up a .850 OPS at either the front of those guys or the end of them, it creates a very tough seven-hitter heart that becomes nearly impossible to navigate – especially late in games with new relief pitcher rules.

The good news, Happ has shown that he was able to cut down on the strikeouts in 2019. He did so in Triple-A and he did so in his short time in Chicago.

Strikeout Percentage

• 2017 – 31.2%
• 2018 – 36.1%
• 2019 (AAA) – 26.3%
• 2019 (MLB) – 25.0%

If Happ can keep that K% under 30%, which it seems that he should be able to do, he will be a major contributor to this offense.

Schwarber needs to be a monster

For the Cubs to make a huge run, I think we need 45 or more homers from Kyle Schwarber. This shouldn’t be a huge stretch either.

In what was really his first “full season” he hit 38 home runs in 610 plate appearances. Tack on another 40 plate appearances, tack on another year of experience, tack on the knowledge of how pitchers will attack him in certain situations, and I don’t think it is crazy to expect him to hit seven more home runs in 2020.

I think Schwarber will have some additional opportunities to get more AB’s during this season too. With no clear leadoff man, Schwarber has a chance to earn AB’s there in 2020. But, his hitting profile also works in the two-hole as a guy that will hit the other way, has shown the ability to bunt. There will certainly be times Anthony Rizzo takes days off and his profile can fit into that three-spot or ever benefit from moving up in the order if Ross shifts Baez up to the three-hole.

I am curious as to how teams will attack hitters later on in games. Since a relief pitcher will be forced to face at least three hitters, will teams focus on getting the right-handed hitters in the Cubs lineup out? Guys like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras? Or will they elect to get the lefties out? Guys like Rizzo, Schwarber, and Heyward? Personally, I think they will bring right-handed pitchers in to get the righties out, knowing that shifts can help neutralize the left-handed bat.

In either case, this likely means more at-bats for Schwarber against opposite-handed pitchers, which should work into his favor (.872 OPS vs RHP, .658 OPS vs LHP).

It should go without saying, the Cubs stars (Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez) will need to be themselves. But these six factors absolutely need to happen for the Cubs to be playing meaningful games in October. If they don’t, well, then start the fire sale in June cause the team won’t make it past July.