Cubs Draft is Turning Up Aces

None. Zero. Zip. Zilch. That is how many first round picks Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein has used on pitching during their Chicago Cubs tenure. When drafting, especially at the top, the tandem has opted to select college hitters. There’s security is selecting hitters. You can see what they are capable of, and when they own elite level bats – executives rarely swing and miss.

That changed on Monday night as the Cubs selected two pitchers with the 27th and 30th picks in the MLB draft.

27th Pick – Brendon Little, LHP State Junior College of Florida

Welcome to the Chicago Cubs, Brendon! pic.twitter.com/w4c4CBsOWp

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 13, 2017

Brendon is anything but little. A lefty that touches 97 MPH is a definite prize. Topping that, Little already has success against wooden bats and struck out 1.5 batters per inning.

He also has a solid curveball, a pitch that is having a bit of a renaissance in Major League Baseball. His spinner is graded out at 60 on an 80 scale, and when that and his changeup are on he is dominating.

“He may have the best curveball in the draft.” – @PGammo on Brendon Little #MLBDraft pic.twitter.com/7pfx9c2WKf

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) June 13, 2017

He does have issues with mechanics when in trouble, which is common in young pitchers. There is a belief that professional coaches and repetition will clean that up. However, when he does lose mechanics it is his offspeed pitches that take the toll.

Like so many of the Cubs last recent draft picks, Little’s makeup is thought of as highly as his talent. Case in point. After his first college season with UNC, he pitched in the Cape Cod League. He was able to catapult his success there to a great sophomore season at State JC of Florida.

While raw, there are many that feel Little can be a very good major league pitcher. He isn’t done progressing, and with slight tweaks, he can add velocity and improve his secondary pitches.

30th Pick – Alex Lange RHP LSU

It is rare to draft a player that has already faced adversity. Typically a team drafts kids That have been nothing but dominate from Little League through college. But that is exactly what the Cubs did when they selected Alex.

Alex looked like a top of the draft guy just a couple years ago. His stuff, especially his curve, looked like top of a rotation quality. In 2015 FanGraphs featured Alex’s curve in what would be a breakout season for Lange.

Alex fluttered a bit in his sophomore season. After a freshman campaign which he posted a 12-0 record with a 131/46 K/BB in 114 innings, and sub-2 ERA, he followed it with a 3.79 ERA and 125/49 in 111 innings.

Where things went bad was in his mechanics. When Alex would get in trouble, he would hurry his delivery, and he’d lose command of his secondary pitches. Adding to this, he lost the ability to command his change throughout much of the year, and his 92-95 MPH heater would get hit.

Alex rebounded nicely in his junior year, especially early. He finished with a 9-5 record (I do hold W/L to a higher regard in college than pros) a 2.92 ERA and a 134/40 K/BB in 111 innings.

These up and down results had a similar effect on his draft position. There were some that thought Alex could go in the top 10 at one point, but most believe he would be a mid-first round pick. He did eventually drop to 30, but it wasn’t as much to do with his ability as it had to do with this year’s talent pool.

Scouts still believe Alex has the tools and ability to be a top end of the rotation guy. With a ceiling of a number two starter, he reminds me of former Milwaukee Brewer Ben Sheets. Low to mid-90’s fastball, dominate overhand curve, change that is just good enough to keep hitters off both pitches. While Alex’s curve is a blended curve and slider (slurve) he gets a similar hard downward motion.

If he compares to Ben, especially before vertigo, this is an excellent value pick by the Cubs.

(2) 67th Pick – Cory Abbott RHP Loyola Marymount University

Perfection. Cory Abbott is known around some circles as Mr. Perfect, and why not? Cory is responsible for the only perfect game in Loyola Marymount’s history, doing so against a BYU team that averaged seven runs a game.

Cory was ranked as the 187th ranked prospect in the draft, but impressed with Marymount records of 11.90 strikeouts per 9 innings and lowest opposing batting average (.179). In conference he shined, pitching to a time of 8-0 and a 0.27 ERA in his nine WCC starts.

Just about any measurable stat favors Cory. To add, the kid just throws strikes. Over and over he pounds the strike zone. This, paired with a low to mid-90’s heater, and a slider that grades rather well, Cory could excel at the next level.

He does throw a change, and it’s considered below average. In college, he was able to get away with throwing it in the strike zone, but MLB hitters will hit this pitch hard unless he improves it. He could also throw fewer strikes. This sounds weird to say for a pitcher, but one who is fastball/slider heavy, without elite speed, he could benefit from touching corners and getting guys to extend the zone.

In the next level he will need batters to get themselves in trouble, but his stuff and experience show he can gameplan to this. Keeping hitters off balance and stretching the zone will serve him well.

Pitchers are the hardest players to draft. The high-end guys tend to have about a 25% success rate and you end up getting surprised by a no name throwaway pick you make in the 6th round. If a third of the pitchers hit their ceiling, it was a good draft by the Cubs.

What is interesting is, last postseason seemed to have a lot of conversation about the curveball. Each of these pitchers features great curveballs, and Brandon’s might be the best of the draft followed closely by Alex. If there is a shift from cutters to the curve, like has been mentioned, the Cubs could be ahead of this… ah… curve in pitching mentality.

I feel rather confident that at least two of these guys will make their impressions felt on a big league roster. They all appear to have stuff that translates to the majors, it’s up to them now to work hard enough to ensure they get that chance.