Cubs Game One Starter
The regular season is coming to a close and it’s about time for the pretenders to book their tee times. While nearly 70% of the league is planning tropical vacations, the Chicago Cubs are firming up their playoff roster. A huge piece of that will be their starting rotation and what order they’ll set things up in.
We got some useful information today as Jake Arrieta will not see action until at least Game Three.
Joe Maddon said he will be penciling in Jake Arrieta past game 1 or 2 of the NLDS
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) September 29, 2017
This tells us a little bit here. Of course the obvious is Jake will likely be the Game Three guy, but also it gives us an idea of a couple other things.
The first, the Game One starter will likely be either Jon Lester or Kyle Hendricks. I would answered this question differently a few days ago, but Jonny will get the start.
Lester has been shaky for a while now, and honestly has been a shell of himself for much of the season. But he’s been the best version of himself in his last two starts of the season. Allowing a single run in 11 innings of work. Add this to his playoff resume and I think it’s a lock that he’ll get the Game One nod.
One other thing this should all but guarantee is – John Lackey will be on the playoff roster. This isn’t a huge surprise, but this might be. I expect him to get a start in the postseason.
Lackey will mostly be an emergency guy. If Jake can’t go Lackey will step in. He will also be there in case Lester falls apart. He very well could be the person that saves the season for the Cubs.
Matchup
The Washington Nationals have a great rotation, their bullpen is suspect, but again… their rotation is great. The reigning Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer leads a rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, and Edwin Jackson. The Nationals did have a scare when Scherzer left his last start of the regular season with an apparent leg injury. As it turn around out, he had stiffness/cramping in his leg and was lifted for precautionary measures. I don’t think he eats his bananas, right Munenori Kawasaki?
Nationals
Scherzer – Max pitched once against the Cubs this season, giving up a run on two hits in six innings. In his career against the Cubs he has pitched to the tune of a 2.92 ERA in six outings. He’s also struck out 51 Cubs hitters in 37 innings, so that will certainly be something to watch. So far Max has been normal in the playoffs, owning a 3.74 ERA in 14 playoff games (12 starts). In the 2016 playoffs he gave up 5 runs in 12 innings of work, which could show that he’s hittable. But we should also follow that leg injury, which could be nothing or the start of something bad.
Strasburg – Stephen pitched once against the Cubs in 2017, giving up three runs (two earned) in seven innings pitched. He also struck out 13 hitters. In his career against the Cubs he’s been rather dominant, in his 34.2 innings he’s given up only 8 ER while striking out 10.6 per 9 innings. He carries a WHIP under 1.000, somethin he’s only done against two other teams. He has pitched once in the playoffs (2014), giving up a single run in five innings.
Gio – he pitched well against the Cubs in 2017, giving up a run in his only outing. He did strike out eight in his six innings while walking five. In his career against the Cubs he has a 3.06 ERA while striking out 63 in 10 starts. In his four playoff starts he carries an ERA near four with a 1.473 WHIP.
Cubs
Lester – Jon has been a roller coaster to watch in 2017. He began the season rocky, got better, then it got strange again. In his games against Washington this season, he was his normal brilliant self. He gave up four runs in 12.2 innings, however he didn’t factor into a decision. Lifetime Lester owns a 2.74 ERA against Washington in six career games. He has been even more staunch in the playoffs. Overall, in 22 games, Jon has a 2.63 playoff ERA. Even more impressive, he owns a 1.53 ERA in the divisional series.
Hendricks – In Kyle’s only start against Washington in 2017, he gave up three runs in seven innings pitched. Over his career he owns a 2.67 ERA in 30 innings against the Nationals. In Kyle’s seven playoff starts he has a 2.38 ERA and was remarkable in the 2016 playoffs, pitching to a 1.43 ERA.
Arrieta – This is a tough one since Jake very well could be skipped for John Lackey, or even Mike Montgomery (a new rumor that has begun). For the sake of guessing, we’ll move forward with Jake. In Arrieta’s sole start against Washington he was roughed up, allowing five earned runs in four innings. He hasn’t fared much better in his career against the Nats. A career 5.48 ERA in nine games which he’s averaging five innings per outing. Jake’s playoff numbers are okay, not great. Holding a 3.64 ERA in his 42 innings.
Quintana – Jose is interesting. He doesn’t have playoff experience, nor has he ever pitched against the Nationals. I would be a huge fan of being able to split up Quintana and Lester since they both pitch very similarly. The same reason could be a vote for having Lackey on the playoff roster. Not only could he be pivotal if Arrieta cannot go, but he can be that long man who comes in relief if someone gets knocked around. I do expect Jose to be his regular self in these playoffs, which is good news for the Cubs.
Splits
The Cubs will have two left handers in the rotation, and potentially three in their bullpen. With Lester, Quintana, Montgomery, Brian Duensing, and Justin Wilson you would think the Cubs would be prepared for the Nationals’ Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. Thing is, the Nationals lead the league in left handed hitters against left handed pitchers (.283 AVG). They don’t hit lefties for much power (9) but their lefties handle themselves extremely well against fellow southpaws otherwise.
The Cubs have an interesting trend. We all have heard (at least locally) how the Cubs are the second hottest team in baseball since the break. But there hasn’t been much detail as to why. The answer to the why is offense.
Sure the Cubs pitchers, namely Hendricks, Arrieta, and Lackey have been much better, but it has been the Cubs bats that have woken up. The Cubs, as a team, hit .237 in April, May, and June. After that point they raised their team average to .274 in July, August, and September – nearly a 40 point jump. There was also an uptick in home runs, hitting 1.3 a game to 1.4, but the real change was slugging as a whole.
Before July the Cubs slugged .416, .392, and .435 for an average of .414 over the span. Since the Cubs have slugged .462 as a team, nearly a 50 point jump. This has put more baserunners in scoring position since July than before – which has cause the surge of runs scored (365 before July, 456 after).
Part of this has been the great lineup management from Joe Maddon, putting guys in the right position to succeed. Part of this is the World Series hangover subsiding. Part of this is- the Cubs are just damn good.
This will be a very stressful series, and people will call Maddon out on some things, and we will point and laugh on Dusty Baker’s use of his pitching staff. The bottom line though, this will be a very hard fought series and I don’t know if anyone can properly predict what will happen.
