Cubs Insider: Bryce to the Cubs is Inevitable
Pic via Chicago Tribune
There has been speculation ever since the Chicago Cubs star Kris Bryant and Washington Nationals star Bryce Harper first trolled the internet with social media posts about playing together. Then the Harper’s named their dog Wrigley, and then there was that Las Vegas Knights game, and game night at the Bryant’s. The courting of Bryce might have begun when the pair of sluggers were playing on the Little League diamonds and Kris’ dad Mike Bryant gave Bryce hitting lessons.
As a fan base, Cubs fans have been torn on Bryce, some absolutely want him on the 2019 Cubs while others warn of impending clubhouse issues, ego driven results, and offensive numbers that don’t support a $40 million a year type of player.
But all of this very well might be coming to an end as WSCR-AM 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine began a recent article like this, “a future marriage between superstar outfielder Bryce Harper and the Cubs seems inevitable.”
For many Cubs fans, it is inevitable. For years, it has seemed that Bryce Harper joining the Cubs was the most likely outcome of the 2019 free agent season. I among them. Then after the 2018 baseball season where the offense, as Theo Epstein put it, “broke,” it became even more clear that a mega-star and MLB legitimate slugger like Bryce would most certainly join the Cubs.
The Cubs are in a championship window, and these windows just don’t come around often enough to waste it by not trying to go for it all every chance they get. This is why the Cubs have depleted their minor league system, to win a championship. This is why they gave Jon Lester a huge deal, to win a championship. This is why Jason Heyward was brought in, to win a championship. This is why Yu Darvish was given a contract, to win a championship.
This is why Bryce Harper will be a Cub, to win a championship.
Now of course there will be folks that bring up his salary, and Levine mentions that the Cubs will start the bidding at around 10 years and $350 million. An AAV of $35 million is a hefty number to carry for just one season, and he suggests doing it for 10 years.
But here are some more details that make this much more tolerable.
The aforementioned Lester will have his deal run out after the 2020 season, opening up $25 million. Ben Zobrist becomes a free agent after next season, freeing up $12.5 million. Jose Quintana‘s deal comes off the books after the 2020 season. In fact, the Cubs will have around $62 million coming off the books by the end of the 2020 season, the vast majority of it from their pitching staff. With several young pitchers making their way through the Cubs system, this will allow the Cubs to focus their money and attention on the offense, through guys like Harper as well as re-signing Bryant, and Javier Baez among others.
Additionally, these mega deals that players are signing today all come with some sort of player option between years two and four, allowing them to opt out to seek more money on the free agent market. If the Cubs were to win the bidding, and Harper signed with the Cubs, an option after the fourth year would leave roughly $210 million on the table, but this would allow for Harper to renegotiate after guys like Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout have all gone through their free agent year. Assuming they all use Harper’s deal to catapult to bigger deals for themselves, Harper would be inline for yet another increase.
If you are worried about this season, or the next, it has been written on the wall for a long while that the Cubs intend on blowing past the Competitive Balance Tax the next couple of seasons, and ownership has made it clear that they will provide the front office with the resources needed to maintain a championship level club.
Let’s stop pretending that the Cubs aren’t going to be playing in this years bidding war for Harper, sorry David Kaplan, in fact, they will be the leaders in the conversations.
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Great hitters still need a good hitting coach!
While you make a point about the $$ coming off the books in 2020. Too bad Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Almora, et. al. will eat up all that surplus and then some. And the tax isn’t just financial, it hits draft picks as well, as will signing Harper. But we’ll see what happens. There won’t be many bidders out there for Harper and if this year goes like last year he might not get anywhere close to $35 AAV.
Yes, they will take up a bit of that, however the Cubs will have no issues running past the CBT and remember, any mega deal will have one or more opt out clauses, and I’m absolutely certain they will come around 2022 which is after many of the young players today hit free agency. This will allow Harper to jump back into free agency and relieve the Cubs his salary.
Also, don’t let this past season’s free agency sway your impression of how the market will move. That was very unique. There will be the Cubs, Yanks, Dodgers, Phillies, and Cardinals and possibly others involved.