Cubs Just as Good as 2016?
It has been a different season than the 2016 Chicago Cubs World Championship season, but can it be true that this team is as good as that team? Well, there are some stats that show this team is very close that season’s ballclub.
Through 87 games in 2016, the Cubs had a record of 52-35. Through 87 games in 2018, the Cubs have a record of 51-36. That is a single game difference from a season which the Cubs started out as the best team in baseball, and it wasn’t even close. I believe fans have a different feeling of the team this season, somewhat because of inconsistencies on both sides of the plate, but mostly because of the Milwaukee Brewers and the best start in their franchise’s history (54-36).
Regardless, let’s take a dive into some more stats, you know, to help the point a bit.
2016 Chicago Cubs
AVG .256 OBP .343 SLG .429 RUNS PER GAME 4.98 HR PER GAME 1.23
2018 Chicago Cubs
AVG .253 OBP .350 SLG .383 RUNS PER GAME 5.12 HR PER GAME 1.08
Through the first 87 games of 2016, the Cubs hit 119 homers, and that seems to be the biggest difference between the ’16 club and the 2018 version. The Cubs have been missing a lot of power from the likes of Kris Bryant (25 HR through 87 games) and Anthony Rizzo (21 HR through 87 games). While guys like Kyle Schwarber (17 HR) and Javier Baez (17 HR) have picked up the slack, the rest of the roster has lacked in the power department.
One area that the 2018 team far exceeds the 2016 team in, is, hitting the ball the other way. I know that many fans will reject the idea that this version of the team hits the ball the opposite way better than the 2016 team, but the proof is in the numbers.
2016
RHB OppFld – 0.78 Hits Per Game .281/.276/.386 .662 OPS
LHB OppFld – 0.65 Hits Per Game .300/.296/.452 .747 OPS
2018
RHB OppFld – 1.16 Hits Per Game .365/.361/.544 .905 OPS
LHB OppFld – 0.81 Hits Per Game .390/.383/.555 .937 OPS
Of course, it’s a small sample, but right-handed hitters had 120 opposite field hits in 2016 and they have already recorded 100 oppo hits this season. Left-handed hitters are only 24 hits away from matching their 2016 opposite field hitting performance. We hear a lot of belly-aching about how the Cubs need to go against the shift and hit the ball the other way, and their numbers tend to prove that they are doing just that.
Pitching
This is where the two teams separate. The 2016 Cubs had a much better starting staff than the current team. But it wasn’t for lack of trying.
Before the season started, Cubs manager Joe Maddon said this was the best rotation he has had here. Why shouldn’t it have been? The Cubs had Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana returning – all but Lester had HUGE expectations in 2018. Then you add Yu Darvish and a near unhittable Tyler Chatwood to the rotation and Maddon’s expectations weren’t such a crazy statement.
Well, that is until the season began… The Cubs didn’t get a whole lot from Yu Darvish, and he ended up on the shelf since May 23rd and isn’t expected back until August at the earliest. Then there have been the control issues with Tyler Chatwood, and Hendricks inability to keep balls in the ballpark.
The 2016 Cubs rotation was nearly historic. With Jake Arrieta, Lester, John Lackey, Hendricks, and Jason Hammel the team seemingly had a Quality Start every dang night out. But that’s what you get when guys aren’t here for a haircut.
The Cubs starters in 2016 owned a 2.96 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. The 2018 version is pitching to the tune of a 3.94 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, and a 7.7 K/9. The Cubs pen in ’18 is better than the ’16 version, but only slightly with an edge of .45 points.
Runners In Scoring Position
This is of course where the two teams really separate, right!? Well, not exactly. The 2018 Cubs have a higher average with RISP (.253 to .252) and are outscoring the world champs by 0.16 runs with RISP.
Again, the only category the ’16 Cubs were better than the ’18 Cubs is in the power game, hitting 0.10 more homers with RISP.
A lot of the Cubs success with RISP has come in the past week or so where it seemed as if the Cubs were coming through in nearly every situational hitting scenario they found themselves in. This, however, wasn’t the case for much of the ’18 campaign. For much of 2018, the Cubs had squandered their opportunities in run scoring scenarios. Don’t get me wrong, they have always been on pace to outscore the 2016 team, but it was through inconsistent scoring, putting up a 10-spot one day and then one or two the next. When you average out 10-runs and 0-runs, it looks like you score 5-runs a game, and this, for much of the Cubs season, has been the experience.
Their offense has been a lot more consistent since the team had a hitters meeting with Chili Davis, and I would expect them to become even more potent when Kris Bryant returns from injury.
Outlook
While the Brewers have been an incredible story, that is if you aren’t a fan of any other National League Central team. But, and I don’t care what the Brewers record is or what you might think is going on – THE CHICAGO CUBS ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL.
Hell, I will go further (and this should be no surprise as I have said it before) – THE CHICAGO CUBS ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE. Period. Print it (I sort of just did).
Think about this, it has taken a record start for the Milwaukee Brewers to ONLY lead the Cubs by 1.5 games (written before the end of the Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants game completed). The Cubs have weathered this storm for much of the start of 2018, and unless the Brewers trade for several difference-making players and they also perform as such in Milwaukee, the Cubs should be favored to win the division for the third consecutive season.
Knowing that Joe Maddon teams play much better in the second half (Cubs have played to the tune of a .664 second-half winning percentage) it isn’t insane to believe that this year’s club won’t be any different. With Bryant and Darvish returning from DL stints, and career years coming from guys like Baez and Albert Almora, Jason Heyward performing better than he ever has as a Cub, and the likelihood of the team adding something in the second half – the team should be able to repeat their usual second-half surge.
*Featured pic via 94.7 WLS-FM Chicago
