Cubs Offseason Non-Option: Trading Jason Heyward

There are already sources coming out to say that the Chicago Cubs need to shed current payroll for them to consider low-budget free agents. This is a large reason behind the Cubs’ “manic” and “aggressive” effort to trade Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, or Anthony Rizzo. The Athletic’s, Ken Rosenthal suggests (paid link) that with the Cubs already over the $208 luxury tax threshold a trade or two is inevitable.

But outside of Bryant or Rizzo, none of those players really release enough payroll for the Cubs to change their financial outlook. This is why Jason Heyward’s name comes up.

Well, to be fair, his name has come up in trade murmurs every offseason since they acquired him in 2016. With a salary of $21 million in both 2020 and 2021, then increasing to $22 million in the two years thereafter, he’s the biggest burden on the budget.

But of course trading a player like Heyward is a hard task. His salary alone eliminates half the league, then of the 10 or so teams remaining – most have viable options already on their roster.

In any trade that the Cubs make, they would look to bolster their minor league and/or acquire cost-controlled starting pitching. That type of pitching has been the white whale of this Cub’s front office’s existence. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s goal was to build a strong organization built on the back of strong offensive players and then finding pitching through free agency or trade. While they have found pitching in the likes of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Yu Darvish, among others – thus far the only pitcher they found since 2015 was Jose Quintana.

The problem is, pitchers are expensive. If you find a backend of the rotation guy, they will cost you at least $13 million a season see Tyler Chatwood. If you trade for a quality young arm, it will cost you a ton of valuable assets – see the Shelby Miller trade.

Trading Heyward for talent is going to be difficult since teams don’t like parting with prospects any longer. In some circles, the Cubs have become a diagram for how not to win because of how they traded prospects away. Now personally, there isn’t a trade I would do over because the Cubs did win the World Series (remember that?) but there are folks out there that criticize nearly every move made. The Cubs moved guys like Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Daniel Vogelbach, Jorge Soler, and Isaac Paredes over the past five years. Most of which have made valuable impacts on Major League rosters.

To trade Heyward, first, a team will need to believe any of the current free agents couldn’t properly fill their need. Here are the current right fielders available:

Right fielders

• Nicholas Castellanos (28 years old, 2.8 WAR, 121 wRC+)
• Kole Calhoun (32, 2.5, 108)
• Avisaíl García (29, 1.8, 112)
• Cameron Maybin (33, 1.6, 127)
• Yasiel Puig (29, 1.2, 101)
• Matt Joyce (35, 1.2, 128)

Teams would need to think that moving a prospect or two for Heyward (30, 1.9, 101) is a better option than tossing money at any of these right fielders, all of which will earn less than Heyward. Then there are guys like Mookie Betts and Starlin Marte are available in trade, which will take more suitors away from the potential Heyward market.

So, to trade Heyward, the Cubs would need to attach a young and talented player or prospect to get value in return. This will likely mean selling a player for less than they could in an effort to relieve salary and get a return.

Meaning, getting anything of value for Heyward would require the Cubs to attach someone like Nico Hoerner to a deal. Would you be ok selling Hoerner so early?

Essentially, I don’t see the Cubs moving Heyward, especially early in free agency, because there are just too many equal or better options available. Why would a team move a prospect for Heyward and his $21.5 million (avg over four years) when for $14 million a season they can acquire Castellanos?

Not only is trading Heyward next to impossible, but they would also have to wait for most of those other options to be signed or traded. This will take most of the winter, which doesn’t help the Cubs free up salary to sign even a low-cost free agent.

So, while trading Heyward is the most ideal way to free up salary, it is the worst possible option for the Cubs to move forward if they want to play in the current free agent pool. This is yet another reason you keep hearing guys like Contreras, Bryant, Baez, and now Rizzo. The only real way to improve the roster IS by moving one of those guys. A trade of one of those guys WILL return value. A move of one of those guys WILL get the Cubs at or below the luxury tax. A trade of one of those guys WILL allow the Cubs to sign current free agents.

Heyward just isn’t the option this offseason.