Cubs Passing on Castellanos Could be Good
Ultimately, passing on Castellanos might be what’s best for the Cubs franchise.
The Chicago Cubs haven’t officially moved on from anyone, even though there is a 12UP article out there suggesting they are moving on from Nicholas Catellanos. I haven’t clicked on it as their content is rarely of value and traditionally take an off-put comment as a way to say the sky is falling. I would assume they are talking about Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma’s piece on the Cubs offseason.
In their peice, they discuss how “there is no realistic sense that Castellanos will be coming back to the North Side.”
I would love to see Castellanos come back, but there’s a matter of worth that has been blurred when it comes to him. For years, Castellanos was considered a disappointment. Coming out of the 2010 draft, Castellanos was rated as the third-best power-hitting prospect and 14th best prospect. This is the same draft as Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal. Harper has 217 homers, Yelich has 139, Machado has 207, Grandal has 141 – Castellanos has 120. As far as value, Harper has a 31.5 WAR (according to Baseball-Reference), Yelich 33.6, Machado 36.9, Grandal 16.1, and Castellanos has a 7.1.
1.5 WAR of which was in the two months Castellanos was a Cub.
Now, Castellanos very well could be a victim of his environment. According to Park Factors, it has been the 15th most difficult park to hit a home run in. As such, 63% of Castellanos’ home runs had come away from Comerica. But just sweeping all of Castellanos’ power issues under the Comerica Park rug isn’t telling the full story.
Castellanos has a .807 OPS at Comerica and a combined .834 away from Detroit. While he hit a higher percentage of homers away from Comerica, he has hit an equal percentage of doubles home and away throughout his career and 23 triples in Detroit as opposed to the 9 away. Plus, remember, these stats include his ridiculous numbers playing in Wrigley as a Cub too.
Essentially, over the course of a seven-year career, Castellanos has been a perfectly average player – outside a two month run after the Cubs acquired him. Dating back to the 2013 season, Castellanos’ first in the big leagues, he’s 23rd with a 10.7 fWAR, 27th with a 112 wRC+, and 22nd with a .797 OPS.
This is the main reason early projections had Castellanos earning a four-year $56 million deal. That price immediately seemed like a bargain to a lot of Cubs fans – and many others across the National League. The offensive onslaught he showcased after being dealt to the Cubs made folks believe he was a $20 million a year type of player. But the entirety of his career proves he isn’t and the two month in Chicago suggests he’s worth much more.
The simple fact of Castellanos is, he isn’t as average of a guy that was in Detroit and he isn’t as good as the guy that was in Chicago.
A team that offers him a long-term deal for more than, say, four years and $18 million a season is banking on him being closer to the Cubs version. If they’re offering something closer to that $14-15 million AAV range, they’re saying he’s that guy from Detroit.
If I were a betting man, I would say Castellanos going on to produce at about a .850 OPS and high 20’s in homers the rest of his career. He will never be a great defensive player, but those numbers put him, offensively, in the top 10 of right fielders. If the current top-10 RF’s make an average of $19.6 million, he’s a bargain at anything under $17 million and paid accordingly at around $18 million.
If the Cubs can’t afford to sign low-budget guys, even trading a current player to free up money to sign Castellanos is a gamble the Cubs might not be able to afford. They already have large investments in Heyward, Jon Lester, and Yu Darvish. Then they are expected to pay Kris Bryant $18.5 million, Javier Baez $9.3 million, Kyle Schwarber $8 million, and Willson Contreras $4.5 million through arbitration. Imagine if they spent on Castellanos and missed?
Now imagine the Cubs traded someone like Bryant or Baez in order to free up salary so they could sign Castellanos? Players that are better than Castellanos, so the Cubs could then sign Castellanos? Like seriously, how does that make the team better in 2020?
You just don’t trade a superstar so you can pick up another player that is a gamble. I know some fans won’t understand that Castellanos is a gamble, but consider this. In two months, former Cub Jesse Chavez looked like one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. He posted a sub-2.00 ERA in Chicago and fans were demanding that the Cubs sign him last offseason. The Rangers beat the Cubs in negotiations by adding a second year and Chavez went on to have a horrible 2019 season.
Now, I think Castellanos’ next five years will be better than his last five years, but the Cubs just cannot gamble on contracts anymore. It is already going to cost them one of Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, or Rizzo and making another deal could cause them to lose more of those types.
