Cubs Unlikely to Sign Castellanos
Back in July, when the Cubs traded for Nicholas Castellanos, it came with mixed emotions. Throughout Castellanos’s career, he mostly underachieved. He was a corner outfielder, that didn’t provide much in terms of power and averaged 1.5 fWAR per season. He didn’t even offer much defensively, being moved from third base to right field where he has -35 DRS in the past three seasons.
But the light bulb was turned on when he was traded to Chicago. Instead of finding the negative, or taking time to learn his surroundings, he decided to look at this as an opportunity.
“Every day is opening day!”
Castellanos has taken this approach into every game, and it shows. On August 30th, Castellanos hit two homers, and the second homer of the day he threw his bat down in complete joy.
I love this emotional outburst by him. He didn’t do it to show anyone up, he wasn’t celebrating a personal achievement, he was overcome with emotion and this just… happened.
Since coming to Chicago, Castellanos slashed .335/.370/.675 with 16 homers and 21 doubles. To put this in perspective, Castellanos’s average is up 62 points, his OBP is up 42 points, his slugging is up a ridiculous 213 points. He has hit 5 more homers in Chicago than he did in Detroit – all in 213 fewer plate appearances.
His performance has sparked almost every Cubs fan to ask, plead, and beg for the Cubs to sign Castellanos to a long-term deal. This would be an excellent deal if the two sides could figure it out, but, I just don’t think that is possible.
His agent, Scott Boras is already planning on listening to multiple offers for Castellanos. He is very aware that teams will look at Castellanos as a lot of Cubs fans will.
One area that will push down his value is WAR. While some discredit the stat, it does tell a story, and even though Castellanos is OPS’ing 1.045 in a Cubs uni, he has only posted a 2.8 fWAR in 2019, 1.7 of that has come since July 31st.
“Well, never ask an artist how paint is made,” Boras said. “This post-performance analysis has nothing to do with performance.
“Believe me, we have a lot of conversations about readiness, how to prepare yourself with opposing pitchers and things like that. … (But) we don’t particularly believe in WAR.”
Boras continued to mention that WAR isn’t a great indicator of production when talking to the Chicago Tribune. While the team that might value him the most is Chicago, Castellanos and his team will certainly listen to other options.
“My ideal of exclusivity is to kind of listen to everybody you can listen to, and then Nick can make his decision,” said Boras, whom Castellanos hired in April. “Obviously I’d imagine any player who is a free agent is going to want to look at the process for a variety of reasons.
“Normally, they’re going to want to listen to the Cubs certainly and want to listen to other teams as well.”
I don’t think Castellanos has made himself a $25 million a year type of player. I think it is ok to consider him a poor defensive player, and one that will likely need to become a DH one day. Sure his defense hasn’t been bad in Chicago, but he isn’t going to age well into a corner position.
But if he can reciprocate his offensive outburst in Chicago, his defensive woes will become worthwhile. In fact, if he continues that type of production he would be a steal even at $25 mill per.
But, I think he is more in that $18-22 million a season, four or five-year type of deal range. How does that fit into the Chicago Cubs payroll?
The 2019 Cubs had a payroll of $211.5 million, which was tops in baseball. There is roughly $56 million coming off the books (biggest pieces are Cole Hamels and Ben Zobrist) which the team will certainly look to fill a rotation spot with some of that cash. Maybe they go all-in on Gerrit Cole this offseason, but after back-to-back incredible seasons, he will come with an incredible price tag. If it isn’t Cole, here are several other names that could work in Chicago:
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.1)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 4.0) — can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30, 3.6)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.0)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 2.8)
Strasburg isn’t walking from the $100 million, not with the lukewarm market pitcher’s have faced the past two offseasons. Bumgarner would remind me of the John Lackey signing. A strong clubhouse type, one of those guys only his teammates can like. He’s a gamer and a fighter, and that playoff resume is incredible.
But any of those guys will need several zero’s on the end of any deal they receive. After a season where the Cubs paid the luxury tax, will ownership be open to opening the checkbook even more for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer? They were already limited in the previous offseason, were only able to sign Craig Kimbrel because Ben Zobrist took the leave of absence.
Baseball-Reference estimates that the Cubs will have a payroll of around $201 million when they pick up any options and after arbitration deals are completed. Add a free agent pitcher, and the Cubs will likely jump past the $208 million competitive balance tax threshold. Will Tom Ricketts be excited to hand over even more money to the club to go over that threshold?
Sure, the team will find a windfall of money through the TV deal with Marquee Sports Network. , but if ownership is losing faith in the front office, why would they just hand over blank checks?
Personally I would like to see Castellanos back, but the Cubs won’t be able to commit a large amount of money before free agency starts. Then when it does kick off, Castellanos will certainly find attractive money on the market. As a guy that is this emotional in his life, he very well could see a lack of early commitment as the Cubs not wanting him back.
Or hell… maybe he loves this town so much he will do whatever it takes to stay here.
Took this 10min after game! I wish every player felt this way. Nick ?being a Cub and ? playing @Wrigley he’s grateful 2 wear a Cub jersey. He takes nothing 4granted not 1play not 1pitch!! We need more players like Nick!! He plays the game the right way #SignNickNow #Believe2020 pic.twitter.com/eDBIA4kewn
— Believer 2020 (@richieogracia) September 22, 2019
Hopefully, that’s the decision he makes.
