Cubs Verlander Trade

The buzz around the Chicago Cubs and Detroit Tigers ace, Justin Verlander heated up last night. It all apparently started with a tweet and report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.

#Cubs scouted Justin Verlander *again* tonight, per @beckjason. @MLB @MLBNetwork https://t.co/8LiERcuT9g

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2017

Sources: #Tigers, #Cubs continue to have trade discussions; Alex Avila and Justin Verlander are of interest, but extent of progress unclear.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 24, 2017

Sources: #Cubs remain interested in Justin Verlander but have shown reluctance to pay full $28 million in '18 and '19. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 26, 2017

This report set off Cubs Twitter with a flurry of tweets, and every Cubs scribe writing about it.

The biggest question is, who will the Cubs send back in return? While the organization has a plethora of quality arms, mostly in the lower levels, they probably aren’t desirable for another two seasons. There aren’t many position players that are coveted or could headline a deal to land a potential Hall of Fame pitcher.

So that leaves someone from the Major League roster.

Albert Almora

That player is likely Albert Almora.

Albert has been the odd man out all season. With Jon Jay‘s excellent play, and Ian Happ forcing himself into the lineup almost every day – Almora has fought for his opportunities all season. Defensively the best center fielder (perhaps fielder in general) on the team, Albert hasn’t had the chance to prove his offensive worth every day. And, he hasn’t deserved that chance with all things considered.

What I mean is, all of Almora’s success has come against lefties. With a regular season slash line of .277/.335/.402, he slashes .240/.271/.322 verse righties and .349/.446/.556 against lefties. I have, and most people would agree, no doubts that Almora will hit against righties, but a pennant race isn’t the time to figure it out.

Verlander’s contract

Then there is a question of how the Cubs could afford Justin’s “crazy contract?”

I’ve never really understood the issues fans have with players contracts. I’ve also never understood why they get upset over a team spending money on a player. But that’s another discussion for another time.

The Cubs can easily handle Justin’s contract, with our without Detroit eating some of the deal.

Verlander earned his deal by being one of, if not the best pitcher in the American League. While most long term pacts tend to get upside down towards the end, Verlander was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award just last season. His velocity is where it’s always been, and his stuff appears to look ok.

https://twitter.com/TTownTiger/status/889659182592425988

Justin can still be a good pitcher in this league, and the NL is the perfect landing spot for him.

I’ve made this argument before, in the NL he wouldn’t be expected to throw 119 pitches. He could, but often wouldn’t be expected to. With the pitcher batting, he will more often be lifted earlier in games and would benefit from facing a pitcher two or three times a game.

Much has also been said about Verlander losing it. This isn’t exactly true. In his 21 starts, he’s given up four or more runs in five of those games. Now, in two of those games, he was hit hard, giving up three homers to the Cleveland Indians in a 9 run outing and giving up two more home runs in a seven run outing against those same Indians. He did, however, come back to give up a single run in his very next start against the tribe.

In fact, subtract Justin’s three worst games and his ERA is just 3.24, that isn’t bad at all. Imagine if your boss judged you on your three worst days at the office.

 

There are legit questions about how many walks Verlander has given up, 4.1 per nine, up from 2.8 over his career. Even with an elevated amount of walks, it seems a lot of fans unknowingly discredit his performance on just three of the 21 games he has played in this season.

I am in the camp that believes the Cubs will be better with Justin Verlander, and while I would hate to lose someone like Albert Almora, it would be a great deal for the Cubs today and in the next few seasons. Oh yeah, and how do the Cubs afford Verlander the next two seasons? Well, check out this article from Brendan Miller at Cubs Insider. There Brendan explains how easily the Cubs can afford Justin and have room for other additions, and give their own players necessary arbitration raises. Don’t believe me? Check out the article for yourself. Seriously.

Ultimately, Justin improves the Cubs rotation. With a starting five of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks, and Verlander – that is an extremely formidable rotation. Now, I would suggest to Theo Epstein and Joe Maddon to have an intern tell John Lackey he is either demoted or is DFA’d, not as a form of disrespect, but who wants to be on the other end of his tirade when he finds out?

Nonetheless, this would look nice down the stretch…

https://twitter.com/DetroitMoments/status/889663796033318912

The Hot Stove League is certainly heating up, and while there will be a ton of rumors, and the move the Cubs end up making is usually the one no one hears about, but this deal would prove to be huge for the 2017 Chicago Cubs.