ESPN Suggests Contreras Trade

Chicago Cubs fans avoided a trade of a core player this past weekend. While many speculated that the team was nearing a trade involving Kris Bryant, a trusted source within his camp denied that assertion. So when there is trusted information out there suggesting there was a trade nearing, who was that player?

Trying to figure that out will end in far too many Facebook arguments, many of which I have zero interest in partaking in. While we’re mostly left in the dark, it leaves us all to play the speculation game. I’ve speculated, other Cubs blogs have speculated, Cubs insiders have speculated, and even national media has speculated.

It is now ESPN’s David Schoenfield’s turn, and he suggests that the team is shopping Willson Contreras – regardless of what Jed Hoyer has said – and even points to several teams that should be trying to acquire him.

Now, yes, person that won’t read this article but tell everyone that Hoyer said they’re not trading Contreras, he did ‘say’ that. But many Chicago insiders, as well as others that cover teams in other cities have also confirmed Contreras’s name is coming up in trade talks. Jesse Rogers suggests that everyone is really just splitting hairs on verbiage.

Hoyer says a 'report' from yesterday that Willson Contreras is being shopped is 'fictional'

Could be splitting hairs/words because the Cubs have talked with teams about him a lot, not just now but in the recent past. But nothing is imminent.

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) December 30, 2020

We have said for two offseasons now, if the Cubs are serious about replenishing the organization with young talent, Contreras gives them the biggest return. While Bryant is the most talented player on the roster, he’s due around $19 million this season and becomes a free agent after the 2021 campaign. Then, he, like Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and like a third of all MLB star players, had a poor 2020 season.

With Contreras being controlled for the next two seasons still, relatively inexpensive, and already in the top tier of catchers in baseball, a premium position – he should present a good opportunity to replenish the system.

Of course, that also means the team would need a starter in 2021. Which is why we’ve heard the Cubs kicking the tires on free agent Jason Castro.

Yes, Willson Contreras >>> Jason Castro so there is absolutely a drop off. But the Cubs are extremely rich in the catcher talent pool. They would take a giant hit, trading both their 2019 and 2020 starters.

This all said, Schoenfield suggested these landing places for Contreras.

Los Angeles Angels: he notes Joe Maddon’s familiarity with Contreras. But the Angels also have some bullets to use in trade. Jo Adell isn’t on the table – of course – but notes guys like Brandon Marsh or Jordyn Adams.

New York Yankees: it sounds like the Yankees and Gary Sanchez would both like to separate. If that is true and a swap is made, the Cubs would likely get Sanchez – and a few prospects. I doubt that the Cubs would get anything of high-value in return if the received Sanchez.

Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies might see Contreras as a less expensive version of JT Realmuto. While JT is better defensively, offensively you’re splitting hairs. It seems like the Phillies are backpedaling this off-season (to the point where some suggested Bryce Harper should ask for a trade). But Schoenfield notes Dave Dombrowski’s “win now” mentality and the possibility to move “Bryson Stott or Mick Abel, the team’s past two first-round picks.”

Toronto Blue Jays: the Jays are aggressive this off-season. They have been involved in Trevor Bauer, JT Realmuto, and George Springer conversations. They were also involved in trade talks for Francisco Lindor before he was traded to the New York Mets. Schoenfield suggests the Jays could possibly take Criag Kimbrel and his $16 million salary in a potential deal as well.

Washington Nationals: they are making moves, i.e. Kyle Schwarber. They are also a strong candidate in any Realmuto conversation. Now, it does seem like any Contreras idea lingers on what happens with Realmuto, and that makes sense. To sign JT it only takes cash, to acquire Willson it takes sending valued prospects. If the Gnats were to lose out on Realmuto, would they be willing to give up arms like Jackson Rutledge or Cade Cavalli?

Houston Astros: it isn’t a secret, the Astros have lost some offensive punch – Springer and Michael Brantley – and the catchers on the roster aren’t really masters with a bat. The problem here is, outside of Forest Whitley, the Astros prospect cupboard is rather bare (and he has some issues as well). The idea behind a Contreras trade would be to replenish the farm to some capacity, that’s not really a match in Houston unless the Cubs look for 18-20 year olds that are several years away.

I can’t see the Cubs pulling the trigger on a Contreras deal just yet. Like previously noted, the market will wait for Realmuto and the way this off-season is moving that decision could come sometime in February. With the Cubs tentatively scheduling pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February, I can’t see a team aggressively making a move once they’ve started to report. Those first few weeks are an important time for catchers and pitchers. While a lot of it is pitchers building arm-strength, the connections they make those first few weeks to a long way in developing a trusting relationship.

It isn’t easy for a new catcher to learn a new staff, it’s even more difficult for that catcher to hold a pitcher accountable. Remember this outburst from Contreras?

It wasn’t until the 2018 season where Contreras could approach Jon Lester and say something like that to him. That is not an indictment on Lester or Contreras, it is more a point to the level of trust a catcher has to build with a pitcher.

For the Cubs, it doesn’t make sense to wait till the season for Contreras. While players like Baez, Rizzo, or Bryant can only improve their trade value, every game Contreras plays in a Cubs uniform can decrease his trade value.

Now, the Cubs are better with Willson than without. He’s made great strides defensively the past two seasons and is a much better all around player today than at the start of the 2019 season. Part of that growth was due to him learning, the hard way, that he cannot take time off.

During the 2018 season, Contreras admitted to not working as hard during the season. He contributed that to his lack of production in the second half. He then vowed to never take this opportunity for granted, and it has shown. Since then he’s posted a .845 OPS (.888 in 2019) with 31 HR, 90 RBI, 120 OPS+ in exactly 162 games.

Who knows what will end up happening here. I am leaning more towards the thought that the main core guys (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Contreras) will be on the roster till at least June 1st. The payroll is already reduced, and I would rather retain Willson long-term than trade him. He’s young enough to still be a force whenever the future that Jed has his eye on comes.

I would like to see what some of the others plan on doing. If they know the team is building for their next window, is Bryant, Rizzo or Baez willing to waste three to five years waiting for that to develop? With them being 28-31 and the re-tooling likely taking them just past their prime years, why would any accept an extension in Chicago? Especially if winning is the biggest motivation?