F@#$ It! The Cubs are a Contender

Maybe I am still punch drunk from the Chicago Cubs sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals. Maybe I’m still riding the high after the Cubs went 10 games over .500. Perhaps it is because the club has the second-best record in baseball since May 1st. Let’s even say I’m still delirious over the fact that the Cubs have a 22-13 mark against teams over .500, including a 12-4 mark against teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Maybe it’s all of that, and it is because of that that I think it’s time we start saying it out loud, without additional caveats, and without apologizing. The way this club is playing is a contender!

Now sure, someone is going to laugh at this post, bring up pitching, or something along those lines. I know all that, and honestly – it doesn’t matter. The play of this team is better than the sum of their parts, and it’s been really freaking fun to watch.

To lead this off, we have to discuss the job David Ross is doing. Here is a guy that most vocal fans (which tend to be the last ones you want to listen to) were upset about his hiring. Those fans wanted a hard ass that will put players in their place, and not a huggable, grandpa Rossy type that is friends with half the roster. But Ross has been anything but that old grandpa that dances on the side. He’s been the hard ass, in the clubhouse and through the media. He’s also managed these guys, including his “friends”, perfectly.

While managing the day-to-day lineup has been more of a “who’s available today” kinda job for Ross, it is his juggling of the pitching that is most impressive. He’s balancing the metrics with momentum and matchup. He’s been a joy to watch, and I’m sure some will point to pitchers not getting the chance to throw deep into games, his moves have paid off far more than not.

A perfect example of how Ross is balancing the metrics verse momentum was in the game Sunday night against the Cardinals. Zach Davies was rolling, he didn’t allow a baserunner until the fifth and was averaging around 10 pitches per inning. But, Davies was facing the Cardinals hitters for the third time and this is typically a problem area for any starter, let alone a starter that relies on location and movement to be successful. But, instead of pulling him, Ross allowed Davies to face the heart of the Cardinals lineup for the third time in the seventh inning. Even after Dylan Carlson hit a leadoff ground rule double, Ross stuck with Davies to face Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tyler O’Neil. Davies got both Goldy and Arenado to ground out, the Cubs escaped the situation without giving up a run after Ross turned the game over to Ryan Tapera. Rossy bucked the trend and it paid off.

Of course, a manager’s job is easier when the players perform – and they have. A giant kudos has to go to the Cubs bullpen, who sit third in baseball with a collective 2.9 fWAR. Their 2.72 bullpen ERA stands as the second-best mark in baseball, and their 3.82 xFIP ranks fifth in the league. But it might be their 11.1 K/9 that most impresses me. You can’t give up runs off the other team can’t hit the ball, and they are striking out more hitters per nine than any team in baseball.

For a unit that a lot of folks questioned coming into the season, they’ve become one of, if not the best pen in baseball. All while many fans applaud the great season being put together by Craig Kimbrel, and even getting behind the fun Andrew Chafin, or really enjoying Ryan Tapera – Tommy Nance looks like a superstar in the making. Here is a guy throwing the ball 97 with more than eight inches bat side movement. This is an elite-level heater. This pen has nine relievers with ERA’s under 2.50, which is simply incredible. One area to watch is the amount of innings they’ve thrown, currently at 251.1, which is the fifth most in baseball.

Offensively, this team is much different than the six teams that proceeded them. Yes, there is still some swing and miss, and there is still an emphasis on lifting the ball, but it is how they are putting the ball in play that is different. I don’t know if you can attribute this to guys like Jake Marisnick, but the team’s identity began to change as he received more playing time. Even through injuries to multiple players, this club continued to find ways to put balls in play.

I have been very hard on Javier Baez of late, but it’s been out of love and not negativity. He’s easily the most exciting and smartest player on the roster, but there has been periods of almost clueless moments early on. It seemed he was only hitting mistakes and pitchers were able to get him out on both offspeed and fastballs in and out of the zone. During the month of May he posted a 131 wRC+ and was a big part of the Cubs success against the San Diego Padres at home. You absolutely knew Baez circled those two series’ on his calendar after Fernando Tatis Jr earned his giant deal this offseason, and after turning down a large deal with the Cubs last offseason.

The biggest unsung hero, that has gone relatively unnoticed, has been Ian Happ. Through the month of May, Happ lead the Cubs with a 165 wRC+ and really stepped up after returning from injury. He’s played adequate center, while allowing Bryant to fill in for the injured Jason Heyward in right. As of now, it appears he’s lost the leadoff role to another hot bat in Joc Pederson, his continued success is rounding out the offense very well. His bat is essential to this whole thing and he hasn’t disappointed since coming off the IL.

This Cubs team might be in fourth right now if it weren’t for Kris Bryant. Not only has Bryant been better than ever, but his ability to handle and pitch anywhere in the zone while putting it in play (with authority) has been a catalyst offensively for the Cubs. But, it is his versatility that has allowed this Cubs team to nurse injuries in left, center, right, and first. Another bonus of Bryant’s versatility is, Matt Duffy wouldn’t have gotten as many opportunities as he did if Bryant couldn’t play all over the diamond – and we wouldn’t even know who Patrick Wisdom was if Bryant didn’t have the ability to play nearly every position.

Yes, there are some players that have put up some stronger numbers, but for my money, Kris Bryant is the MVP of the first third of 2021. I cannot see how anyone could look at what he has done to keep this team in contention and not cast their vote for KB if the season ended today.

This team is putting a ton of pressure on the front office and ownership. I am certain guys like Anthony Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez have a, “this is our last chance at a run” mindset. They are putting Jed Hoyer’s feet to the fire and are showing ownership that they are a legit team, and worthy of being buyers. It will be interesting how much Hoyer will go to supplement this roster, and how much he may dip into the 2025 talent pool to acquire talent. The even more interesting question is, when do they put a contract offer in front of Scott Boras to ink Bryant up for the next seven years or so?

If this team is a competitor, it deserves to be added to. If Bryant is showing the Cubs and the MLB that he is a guy you build a team around, you try and keep him as long as possible. Both of these things can happen, both of these things can happen while also keeping an eye on the future. How Hoyer and ownership try and do it will be a side-story for the remainder of 2021, but till things play out, I am going to enjoy this playoff caliber Chicago Cubs team.

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