Free Agency, Nolan Arenado Changing Kris Bryant’s Extension Possibilities
The 2018 baseball offseason was supposed to be a vacuum, a single occurrence that you shouldn’t put too much stock in. But when the 2019 offseason hit, and its the end of February and 115 high quality free agents remain, it’s potentially becoming the norm. Now with guys like Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, and the mega-deal with Nolan Arenado being announced, free agency is on the cusp of a fundamental change.
It’s apparent, teams are tired of getting burned by gigantic commitments to players over a number of years. That message has never been more clear than in an offseason which should have seen more than a billion spent between Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, and Patrick Corbin alone, has seen a rather underwhelming tolerance from teams.
Now with multiple players suggesting they received the exact same offer from multiple teams on the exact same day, there’s the potential of real evidence on collusion. Cap this with free agency beginning to create multimillion questions instead of multimillionaires, and player might be more willing to discuss extensions that go through that debacle
Which brings us to the Chicago Cubs star third baseman, Kris Bryant.
Bryant is a guy that is built in the mold of Machado or Harper. A guy that had 2021 circled as the time he signs a contract with $300 million written somewhere on it. But that isn’t looking as certain as it once was.
Bryant, outside of 2018, had performed better than Machado, and Manny just inked a 10 year, $300 million deal. It’s assumed there is already a 10 year, $320 million deal on the table for Harper, and Bryant is arguably more valued than he is. In fact, the only players with a higher fWAR than Bryant since he’s been in baseball are Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, and Mike Trout.
On Tuesday, Nolan Arenado signed an eight year extension worth $255 million. Bryant, who in 73 less games from the start of the 2015 season, has posted an fWAR 2.5 wins higher than Arenado.
Between Machado, who has notoriously played third and Arenado who plays third, the market for Bryant is set. The Cubs, assuming they’re game, have the blueprint of an extension for him now.
With free agency being a crapshoot, and teams obviously willing to pay what used to be free agency value for players under control – would Bryant consider an extension now? Well ESPN’s Jesse Rogers believe he might.
“He said, ‘Absolutely,’” Rogers said of Bryant’s response to a question about accepting an offer like Arenado’s. “Now, he said it like, ‘That’s a great deal, how could anybody turn it down?’ Yet we know that if this was Theo and Scott, ‘Absolutely’ may not be the answer.
“He was absolutely impressed by 255 (million dollars) and eight (years). I think he understands if he doesn’t say yes to that, he sounds selfish. But I don’t know if it was presented in front of him if he actually would, or if Scott Boras would.”
“Kris made a point of saying to me, and he said it exactly like this: ‘I want to reiterate that I’m the client, I’m the guy in charge,’” Rogers explained. “Now I’m paraphrasing: ‘I’m the guy that Scott has to listen to.’”
“I think Bryant would be willing to play ball if Scott will listen to him, and vice versa,” Rogers concluded.
Now, this isn’t a lock. This doesn’t even mean that tonight Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, Tom Ricketts, Scott Boras, and Kris are sitting at a steakhouse hammering out language on a new deal. Even with the framework of what should be a new contract paying somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-35 million over eight to 10 seasons mostly set, we are likely a ways away from that point.
Boras ain’t no fool. He is well aware that there is going to be a new CBA in 2021. He’s also well aware that the players will be looking to gain more control after the past couple seasons and how free agency has been a pretty big letdown.
While there is a “framework” of a potential extension, Machado and Arenado have different circumstances than Bryant has.
Machado is a 26-year old who has hit free agency as he is about to reach the prime years of his career. Bryant is already 27, and won’t hit free agency until his age 29 season. Arenado had just signed a record $26 million deal avoiding arbitration earlier this offseason, which would have been his last before hitting free agency. Just a month later the Rockies awarded Arenado with another record deal,
Bryant will have the potential new CBA dangling over his head. While a new deal, which should allow for some more favorable language for players, could help free agents – it’s also a giant question mark in a game that’s already trying to limit player salary.
If I were a betting man, I’m not, I would think Bryant allows the regular arbitration process to play out. Then the first time he actually talks extension, seriously, will be In his final season with the Cubs. And we are such a long ways away from that point.
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