Hey Joe, You Have Your Leadoff Hitter on the Roster Already
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 15: Ian Happ #8, Albert Almora Jr. #5 and Jason Heyward #22 of the Chicago Cubs celebrate after a 10-3 victory against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 15, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Ok, I love the dynamic the Robel Garcia brings to the lineup – he’s just not a leadoff hitter! I don’t know what possessed Joe Maddon to put him atop the order… Was it his unwillingness to accept walks or his 41.5% strikeout rate? Oh, maybe his complete lack of speed! Maybe it was just his turn. You know, cause everyone knows if you stick around the Cubs big league roster long enough, you’ll eventually hit leadoff for Maddon.
There isn’t a single part of his game that screams leadoff hitter. But there he’s been, over the past three games atop the order.
Here’s a secret Joe, you already have a leadoff hitter on the roster. Ian Happ.
Yes, I know there’s instantly the response, “ALL HE DOES IS STRIKEOUT!!!” Thank you for playing, and falling into the narrative folks.
Actually, all Happ has been over his big league career is an above average offensive player. He’s been leaps and bounds better than Albert Almora, better than David Bote, better than Jason Heyward, and better than Garcia.
Oh, and he’s reduced that strikeout thing.
Since his call-up, Happ has walked at an astounding 33.3% and has reduced his K rate to 26.7%. Anything below 28% K rates you can live with out of the leadoff spot, especially if you are getting on base at a .400 clip (Happ’s current OBP).
WhAt AbOuT tHe HiTz!?
Yes, Ian Happ has only one hit on the season, but he’s proven to be a rather dynamic offensive threat that has the ability to drive the baseball. His .100 average isn’t something anyone should be concerned with – especially since he’s getting on base at an (current) elite level.
Rolling this back a bit, Happ has a career .320 OBP from the leadoff spot, which is 34 points higher than all Cubs leadoff hitters this season. Maybe it’s still lower than you’d like, but it’s better than Garcia (.067), Kyle Schwarber (.304), Albert Almora (.250), and Willson Contreras (.000).
Happ isn’t the perfect option – but as shown above – the Cubs don’t have a perfect option. It’s looking less and less likely that the Cubs will trade for a legitimate leadoff guy. It seems that ownership is willing to see what Ben Zobrist can bring, as they can’t even rub two nickels together in an attempt to improve this club.
With the lack of a legit option, I’d take Happ’s .400 OBP over the Cubs current .286 OBP from their leadoff hitters.
Yea he’s better than Garcia, Bote, and Almora but there’s no way he’s better than Heyward this year. And give it time..,that .400 OBP will crater eventually.
The assessment is based off Happ’s career numbers as a leadoff hitter. His .320 OBP is higher and better than all of the others. Heyward not only doesn’t like hitting leadoff, he doesn’t add much value there and why push him into a spot he doesn’t like or feels comfortable doing in a season in which he finally started hitting?