Holy Crazy Cubs Predictions – Did ZiPS Nail it?

So we have some very interesting predictions using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. ZiPS is one of the most respected projection processes out there, and of course, if ZiPS projects say 25 home runs for someone, doesn’t mean that’s what they’ll finish with.

Whenever I write about projections I like to note, they always tend to error on the side of conservative. Rarely will you see ZiPS (or any other projection service) predict 50 homers or 160 RBI. So if you feel a projection is light in some way, either you have to curb expectations or the system just doesn’t predict incredibly great performances.

Chicago Cubs projections

ZiPS predicts that six Cubs will finish over 3.0 wins or more, three pitchers and three hitters. Jose Quintana (4.9 zWAR), Jon Lester (3.5 zWAR), and Kyle Hendricks (3.2 zWAR) lead the pitchers and Kris Bryant (5.8 zWAR), Anthony Rizzo (4.9 zWAR), and Addison Russell (3.0 zWAR) lead the hitters.

From a pitching perspective, I understand the projection. They may have undercut Hendricks a little, and over-predicted both Quintana and Lester a bit. From the offensive side, they’ve nailed some and are off on some. There’s absolutely no reason to not expect Kris Bryant to lead the team in WAR. He has done it every year he’s been on the team and is one of the game’s elite players. Rizzo is about where he should be and Russell might be rated high, but they do expect him to have 123 more plate appearances in 2018 than 2017.

Here are the notables.

Starting Pitching

ZiPS isn’t the only system that isn’t expecting a lot from Jose Quintana. Paul Sporer has Quintana listed as the 19th best pitcher in baseball, and the top dog in the Cubs rotation. I heavily disagree with some of his rankings, but his Quintana take is pretty good.

There are a lot of fans that sleep on how good Quintana is. They look at record, maybe ERA, and underestimate his ability. Thing is, he is really freaking good – and with Kyle Hendricks (who is still unbelievably underrated) and hopefully a rebounding Jon Lester – this should be a very good top end rotation.

Here is how they project the rotation:

Jose Quintana – 186 IP, 188 K, 51 BB, 3.19 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 73 ERA-, 72 FIP-, 4.9 zWAR
Jon Lester – 170.3 IP, 169 K, 48 BB, 3.54 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 81 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 3.5 zWAR
Kyle Hendricks – 155 IP, 136 K, 39 BB, 3.48 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 80 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 3.2 zWAR

I would fully expect Kyle to pitch closer to a full season. In 2015 and 2016 he made 30+ starts and finished with 180 and 190 innings pitched, respectfully. He was injured in 2017, and it appears that ZiPS assumes he will spend time on the DL yet again. I don’t, and even if he does miss some time it will likely be a start or two, and not a large chunk of the season. For a guy that owns a 1.098 WHIP, I would expect him to fall somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 season, except more innings pitched.

I probably have less faith in Lester’s ability to continue to pitch at a high level in the regular season. Now, before you blast me for speaking ill of Jon, I believe he will pitch much better than he did in 2017. The biggest reason I believe he will be better is through familiarity with Willson Contreras. The pitcher/catcher relationship is always one that is blown out of proportion. I feel it is usually argued incorrectly regardless of the stance. But I do know there is something to a catcher knowing a pitcher, and a pitcher knowing a catcher. With increased familiarity I would expect Lester to reduce his walk totals, cutting down on free baserunners.

In the case of Quintana, 2018 will be the season that he breaks through. He will not have trade rumors over his head. His familiarity with the Cubs and being on a winning team will help, but it will ultimately be run support which will turn heads. Now, wins and losses is an archaic argument to make in regards to judging a pitcher’s performance, but so many fans still rely on it to tell them if a pitcher is any good. I really believe if Quintana finishes with 15 or more wins (as right or wrong as this is) he will finally be looked at as the quality pitcher he is.

Offense

There might be some issues with the offensive projections, which I will get into a little bit later, but from the looks of it, ZiPS believes the Cubs will be a good offense. I approve of that assumption.

As good as Kris Bryant is, both baseball fans and some Cubs fans severely underrate him. Kris Bryant‘s 2017 was an insanely phenomenal season, but I think fans saw a dip in RBI (another old and outdated stat) and think he wasn’t nearly as good as his MVP season. Fans from all around baseball tend to sleep on him as well, which is asinine to me. I fully believe Kris would be a more coveted free agent than Bryce Harper – and Harper is in line for $400 million. There are several players in today’s game that are certain Hall of Fame guys. The only player I can say with certainty that will be better than Bryant is Mike Trout – and that shouldn’t be controversial.

Here is a look at the key offensive players according to ZiPS:

Kris Bryant 3B – 670 PA, 106 R, 34 HR, 95 RBI, .272/.381/.522, 134 wRC+, 5.8 zWAR
Anthony Rizzo 1B – 658 PA, 94 R, 33 HR, 110 RBI, .276/.389/.527, 137 wRC+, 4.9 zWAR
Addison Russell SS – 508 PA, 63 R, 17 HR, 71 RBI, .247/.317/.431, 92 wRC+, 3.0 zWAR
Willson Contreras C – 475 PA, 56 R, 17 HR, 68 RBI, .265/.342/.448, 106 wRC+, 2.8 zWAR
Jason Heyward RF – 538 PA, 64 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, .262/.335/.393, 92 wRC+, 2.3 zWAR
Ian Happ 2B/OF – 545 PA, 77 R, 28 HR, 85 RBI, .255/.325/.488, 107 wRC+, 2.2 zWAR
Ben Zobrist 2B – 478 PA, 71 R, 11 HR, 52 RBI, .255/.345/.400, 96 wRC+, 1.9 zWAR
Javier Baez 2B – 507 PA, 63 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, .254/.300/.435, 85 wRC+, 1.7 zWAR
Kyle Schwarber LF – 511 PA, 78 R, 31 HR, 81 RBI, .231/.325/.496, 110 wRC+, 1.2 zWAR
Albert Almora CF – 427 PA, 49 R, 9 HR, 50 RBI, .272/.306/.409, 84 wRC+, 1.2 zWAR

So, that’s a lot to unpack… But I’ll try.

I already swooned over Bryant a bit, but to add, I would estimate that he will hit around .285 in 2018. But that would be picking hairs in an otherwise decent projection for the Cubs all-star third baseman. I think Rizzo is pretty spot on as well. Maybe give or take a half win, but again that is splitting hairs.

With Russell, I feel if he gets 500 or more plate appearances that he will hit 20 or more home runs. I stop short of saying he is a power hitter (regardless of what Russell himself thinks) but I think 500 plate appearances equals 20 homers for him.

I think they are way off on Willson Contreras. This dude could very well be the Cubs MVP (if some things go right), that is how good he is. Defensively he is solid, has maybe the third best arm in baseball, and offensively the dude can rake. His feet are wet and he knows how pitchers will attack him in the bigs, this dude is primed for a huge season. I would peg Willson for 25 bombs and around 80 runs scored.

I think they nailed Heyward and Baez. I even think Zobrist and Almora are pretty spot on. Maybe Almora finds his way on base at a higher clip and both of them pop a couple more homers, but they are mostly spot on.

I am going to come off as an even more Schwarber apologizer than I really am, but I think they are far underestimating what he will do this season. I’m not the homer dude that will project 60 homers, 165 RBI, .330 AVG. I do feel that a reasonable projection for Schwarber is a .260/.335/.515 31 HR type of season. While not incredible, this is a .850 OPS season which is very very good and I don’t think this is a ridiculous expectation from him. They also have him down for a -8 defensive rating, when he has never rated under -3.4. With all the extra work he’s done (yes, I have fallen hook, line, and sinker for his offseason work) I gotta think he at least stays the same and doesn’t get significantly worse.

ZiPS has projections for just about any player that may have an appearance on the big league roster in 2018. They can’t guess how many plate appearances they will get, so you will see a guy like Charcer Burks have an estimated 531 PA. That won’t happen. But, if he were to get that many plate appearances, ZiPS gives what you might expect from him.

Overall though, I think ZiPS did a great job. Sure you can argue a couple of the guys, but you have to remember that there are some players that don’t have defined roles. Like Baez, Happ, Almora, and Zobrist. These guys might see 500 plate appearances each, but by moving all around the diamond. Or, they only see 400 plate appearances each because they are moving all around the diamond. So just through not being able to know what someone’s role is the projection could vary crazily.

But that said, visit Fangraphs and take a look at the projections. Once you to, come on back and let me know what you think. Do you like them? Do you think they are off? Its cool if you are a homer and project 100 HR from everyone – let us know!

Jamie Baker

Hi, I’m Jamie and I run this site. I’ve published work on multiple other sites and through that experience I decided to create CHICAGO style SPORTS. We truly aim to speak for the Chicago fan. Additionally, as a member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association of America) you can be assured that all content you read will be written with incredible integrity.

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