How Shelby Miller Screwed the Cubs
So, yes… it is a little difficult to fathom that the Chicago Cubs were screwed in any way this offseason. Signing John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, and Jason Heyward certainly lists the Cubs as an offseason winner, if not the team that had the best offseason. But the trade of Shelby Miller from Atlanta Braves to the Arizona Diamondbacks screwed the Cubs.
During the Cubs offseason there were reports from all throughout the league, Chicago was in hot pursuit of a young, cost controlled pitcher. One of those names was the Atlanta Braves Shelby Miller.
While the Cubs and Atlanta had some very advanced conversations, some going into the wee hours of the winter meetings. The rumors were that the Braves and Cubs had nearly reached an agreement sending Javier Baez to Atlanta in return for Miller. The Cubs eventually balked at this deal, and the Braves then turned towards Arizona where they received Dansby Swanson (number one pick in this year’s draft), Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Blair. These are all extremely high level and respected prospects that were in the Diamondbacks organization.
So how does this screw the Cubs?
Before the Shelby Miller trade, the going rate for one of these cost controlled pitchers (Miller, Carlos Carrasco, Tyson Ross) was a player like Jorge Soler or Javier Baez and another prospect (with eventual major league ability). After the deal that sent Miller out West, the price for pitching went up to include both Baez and Soler, as well as another prospect of similar potential. In fact, there were rumors that the Braves were asking for either both of those players or even Kris Bryant to be included in a deal.
While the Cubs will certainly continue to look for another arm, there will not be another team in the league willing to lower their costs, much like Lackey, Zobrist, and Heyward did. While just a couple of weeks ago trading Jorge Soler for Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco was a viable option, today the Indians wouldn’t pick up the phone if Soler was the only headliner in a deal coming back to Cleveland.
Perhaps this new revelation will cause the Cubs to look in a different market for pitching? Maybe someone like the San Diego Padres James Shields begins to make more sense for the Cubs?
The team had considered him in the past, and his reputation as being “Big-game James” will prove valuable for the Cubs in the playoffs. But does Shields also come with a much higher price tag in the trade market due to the increased value of the younger, cost controlled guys?
The Cubs have accomplished a lot this offseason, and with only a couple of spots left to fill — another starting pitcher and a centerfielder — the team is primed and ready for what should be a very exciting season. With complete faith that the Cubs braintrust will continue to make the proper moves, you can’t help but feel they were a bit screwed when Miller was dealt to the Diamondbacks.
