Just Stop It – Bryant and Bote Debating is Dumb

I haven’t written anything in a while. This is because I am working, have been helping the kids stay active while I am working from home, I am a director of a local baseball organization, and I also am a coach. I have about 2 hours a week when I can see my wife and have an adult conversation with her. So understand, when I jumped at the opportunity to write on this subject, I must feel strongly about it.

Chicago Cubs fans need to STOP with the Kris Bryant vs David Bote debate.

This is the most shortsighted and dumb debate I have seen in this fan base in a long, long time. These guys are not comparable – like at all. While, yes, Bote is a very fine player, he isn’t Kris Freaking Bryant. It is as if some “fans” have completely forgotten what Bryant is, has been, and by all accounts will continue to be. I don’t want to sit here and sh*t on Bote, because he is an exceptional bench/role player, but he just isn’t a dangerous enough bat to be considered a starter in this league.

David Bote: Career .247/.341/.418 Hitter, 3.5 bWAR, 101 wRC+

Kris Bryant: Career .282/.382/.512 Hitter, 23.8 bWAR, 137 wRC+

I get that some fans like the late-inning heroics that Bote has produced at times. But you’d be foolish to believe that Bote’s 7th through 9th inning production is worth more than a full game of Bryant in the lineup. Additionally, you’ve been fooled to think Bote is a far superior late-inning hitter than Bryant is.

Here are the late and close stats from both players, as you can find on Baseball-Reference:

• David Bote – .227/.321/.361 3 HR
• Kris Bryant – .249/.372/.466 20 HR

I understand you will now say it is “what have you done for me lately!? Well…

• David Bote
  • 2020 Late & Close – .167/.375/.167 .542 OPS
  • 2019 Late & Close – .217/.288/.267 .555 OPS
  • 2018 Late & Close – .258/.368/.581 .949 OPS
• Kris Bryant
  • 2020 Late & Close – .400/.400/1.000 1.400 OPS
  • 2019 Late & Close – .312/.424/.701 1.125 OPS
  • 2018 Late & Close – .233/.333/.367 .700 OPS

There’s only one season where Bote outperformed Bryant in late and close situations, and that was 2018 when Bryant had his shoulder injury.

But, Injuries

Ok, there is a concerning recent rash of injuries with Bryant over the past three seasons. Up until the 2018 season, Bryant had never sat out due to an injury. He has gotten days off, in the past, but since his shoulder injury in 2018 there have been more and more issues that have popped up.

It isn’t concerning to myself, or should it be to anyone else, that he has experienced injury. Most athletes, playing at a high level, will experience injury. What is a tad alarming is that when he is injured his production drops a lot. Now, of course, you could expect some production loss when he is, or anyone is injured. When Bryant is injured or has nagging injuries, he is a completely different player. He’s essentially a shell of himself.

Through the first 38 games of 2018 and the first 135 games of 2019, Bryant has put up a .282/.403/.547 with a .950 OPS, 34 home runs, 49 doubles, 126 runs scored in those 173 games played. This is an elite level player over that time. In fact, over the 173 games between the start of the 2018 season till Bryant’s injury and from the start of the 2019 season up until Bryant’s knee injury, there are only eight players that rank in the top 30 in fWAR throughout that period. Here are the results:

• Mike Trout – 11.8 fWAR 183.5 wRC+
• Mookie Betts – 9.9 fWAR 174 wRC+
• Matt Chapman – 7.3 fWAR 126.5 wRC+
• Francisco Lindor – 7.1 fWAR 137 wRC+
• Nolan Arenado – 6.8 fWAR 134.5 wRC+
• Freddie Freeman – 6.4 fWAR 154 wRC+
• Yasmani Grandal – 6.3 fWAR 130.5 wRC+
• Kris Bryant – 6.1 fWAR 150.5 wRC+

If you need to be reminded, this is an elite company, this is a group of players any modern player would like to be mentioned in. Now, of course, we have seen guys like Christian Yelich or JT Realmuto or Cody Bellinger step up and should be listed higher than a couple of the players on that list. Heck, they should replace Bryant on that list – but this should help further illustrate the weird bias a chunk of Cubs fans has had with regard to Bryant.

Bote is starter material

These things are always weird to do because when talking up one player, you gotta push another one down. I don’t want to do that with Bote. I like him, I think his story is a good story. A kid that was a walk-on to Liberty University’s baseball team, leaves to play JUCO at Neosho County Community College. Works his tail off to become professional material. Catches the eye of the Cubs and they draft him in the 18th round, 554th overall in the 2012 draft. He continues to work hard, fits a specific type the Cubs leadership like, and after bouncing around multiple levels of the Cubs system, makes his MLB debut in 2018.

His story is a story that can be seen as inspirational. A guy that probably could have quit the game 100 times over and no one would have batted an eye. But he kept working harder than others and found his way to Wrigley Field.

It is a story people can get behind.

But fans need to pump the breaks when they are suggesting Bote should take Bryant’s spot. These two are not the same. They aren’t even close.

Bote is a career .247/.341/.418 hitter. His batting average is 35 points lower than Bryant’s, his OBP is 41 points lower than Bryant’s, his slugging is 94 points lower than Bryant’s. His OPS+ is 100, which suggests he is an average player in the league (league average is 100, anything above that is of course above league avg, lower than that is below league average). Bryant has a 135 OPS+, suggesting he is 35% better than the league average player. His wRC+ is 101, suggesting he is just 1% better than a league average player, and Bryant has a 127 wRC+ since 2018 – which has been the worst three years of Bryant’s career.

When you compare Bote to other third baseman since the 2018 season with 600 plate appearances (Bote has 636 since the 2018 season), he ranks 35th in HR (22), 39th in Runs (78), 36th in AVG (.247), 18th in OBP (.341), 34th in SLG (.418), 27th in wOBA (.326), 28th in wRC+ (101), and 27th in fWAR (2.8). Every single category he is decisively worse than Bryant is. There are more data points that suggest that he would be the worst-rated third baseman in baseball than someone ready to take a starter role from a former MVP player.

What if he played every day! Won’t that increase his numbers!?

Sure, some… and maybe his works his way to being a respectable starting player, but one that is very, very easily replaced. You might think this is a diamond, but it is just cubic zirconia that can pass as a diamond unless you put the microscope on it.

A lot of Cubs fans are fooled because of the walk-off grand slam, and a handful of other moments that he’s had late in games. They see him have a solid game like he did Monday in Detroit, and think that he’s earned the ability to be in the lineup every day. Then, naturally, they compare him to Bryant. In 2020, Bryant hasn’t had a great go at things – neither has Bote, or Anthony Rizzo, or Javier Baez, or Willson Contreras, or pretty much throw a dart at the roster and you’d find someone with a slow start. So for some reason, they make the jump to Bote should be the starter over Bryant.

That’s just asinine.

Here’s a fun exercise. Just look at the Cubs record and runs per game before Bryant was injured (August 12th). The Cubs had an 11-3 record and scored 5.3 runs per game. After Bryant’s injury, the Cubs are 6-7 and have averaged 4.3 runs per game. So, without Bryant – who, yes has struggled – the Cubs are scoring a run less per game than with him in the lineup. Since Bryant has been out, Bote has gotten a vast majority of those starts.

Do you want to know why there is a run difference and a huge record difference? It is because just having Kris Bryant in a lineup forces a pitcher to attack the Cubs differently. Just the simple fact that for the first two weeks of the season, Bryant led baseball in pitches seen helps the lineup be better. His presence helps others get better pitches. His presence helps wear down opposing pitchers. Him hitting leadoff immediately puts the opposing pitcher in a defensive and stressful position.

NONE OF THAT CAN BE SAID ABOUT DAVID BOTE.

No team fears Bote. No team game plans for Bote. No pitcher feels extra stress when throwing to a bench player in David Bote. He just isn’t in the same stratosphere as Bryant.

I understand a lot of folks feel I have a man-crush on Bryant. Sure, I’ll own a man-crush, but this is because I know what I know about the game. I know what I know about Bryant. I know from the second he was drafted, that was the moment the Cubs won the World Series. It wasn’t when they hired Joe Maddon, it wasn’t when they drafted Javier Baez, it wasn’t when they traded for Anthony Rizzo, it wasn’t when they converted Willson Contreras to catcher, it wasn’t when they drafted Kyle Schwarber. It was when they drafted Bryant.

Maybe the Cubs do have to find a replacement *IF* he leaves after his contract is up. Maybe Bote can be that relatively inexpensive piece that bridges the gap from Bryant till a real third baseman comes. But what is crazy is, Cubs fans want to kick out the most productive third baseman in Cubs history (which includes Ron Santo), a player who – if he retires a Cub would certainly have his number hanging on a flag pole, a player that all but maybe five or six teams would replace their third baseman in a heartbeat for – it’s crazy there is a loud portion of this fan base that wants to help walk him out of town for someone that has hit like four big balls in his career.