MLBTR Releases Estimated Cubs Salary Arbitration Increases

Annually, MLB Trade Rumors releases arbitration salaries for any arb-eligible player. While these are estimates, their algorithm is the most accurate prediction of potential arbitration salary there is in the game. Players will look to these numbers for reference, teams and agents point to theses in their own way. MLBTR often deals in the rumor game, but when they release these estimates they are the most reliable and source in the business.

Admittedly, MLBTR cannot accurately predict what will happen in this COVID-19 world. Will the absence of fans dramatically affect the salaries? Will the unknown that is 2021 push these salaries down some more? No one really knows what that answer is. I can guess teams will fight to keep them lower, citing the reasons above and players/agents will push the numbers higher assuming they should follow normal arbitration protocol.

If we were working in a normal environment, players can usually assume a salary raise through arbitration just by adding another year of service time. Even if the player has a bad year, they will typically see an increase. This is because the system is built in a way to reward players and systematically increase their pay from league minimums over the years. Look at Kris Bryant’s increase after the 2018 season. While Kris – due to a shoulder injury – had a down season, he received a $2.05 million raise from his $10.85 million salary. If 2020 was a normal season, he would likely receive another increase for 2021, pushing his salary up over the $20 million range.

But, environmental concerns are here. They are real. No one knows what 2021 will hold. I can tell you, most organizations are preparing for another season of either no, or a very limited number of fans in attendance.

A second season with unpredictable attendance (ticket revenue) will be a dangerous predicament for many organizations. We can see owners push the MLBPA for reductions in salaries, yet again, and I can see the union pushing back for possibly a shorter season, yet again. I wouldn’t predict 60-games, but I can see them reducing it to 120-144ish. In doing so, players would see an increase in per-game salary, but possibly a decrease (or stagnant) annual salary.

If you didn’t click the link above, here it is again. They are estimating the Cubs arb-eligible salaries to be as such:

• Albert Almora Jr.: (2020 salary, $1.575m, arb 2 or 3) $1.575m
• Javier Baez: (2020 salary, $10m, arb 3 of 3) between $10m and $11.9m
• Kris Bryant: (2020 salary, $18.6m, arb 4 of 4) $18.6m
• Victor Caratini: (2020 salary, $592k, arb 1 of 3) between $1.2m and $1.6m
• Willson Contreras: (2020 salary, $4.5m, arb 2 of 3) between $5m and $7.4m
• Ian Happ: (2020 salary, $624k, arb 1 of 3) between $2.5m and $4.6m
• Colin Rea: (2020 salary, $565k, arb 1 of 3) between $1m and $1.6m
• Kyle Ryan: (2020 salary, $975k, arb 2 of 4) between $1.2m and $1.5m
• Kyle Schwarber: (2020 salary, $7m, arb 3 of 3) between $7.9 and $9.3m
• Ryan Tepera: (2020 salary, $900k, arb 3 of 3) between $1.1m and $1.5m
• Dan Winkler: (2020 salary, $750k, arb 3 of 3) between $1m and $1.2m
• Jose Martinez: (2020 salary, $2.43m, arb 2 of 3) between $2.1m and $2.3m

Due to the weird status of our environment, we could expect to see many more non-tendered players than ever. Someone like Rea, who has the potential to receive over a million more in 2021 than 2020, could be someone that is in line to be non-tendered. That, or there’s an extension worked out before the December 2nd date (perhaps not in Rea’s case).

It is interesting to see one, how low some of these salaries are, and two, the players MLBTR expects to receive raises. Javier Baez was the third-worst-rated offensive player in 2020, producing a 57 wRC+. He narrowly beat out Eduardo Escobar (56 wRC+) and Nicky Lopez (55 wRC+) for the honor of drinking an Old Stlye from their cleats.

With Baez, MLBTR is suggesting nearly a $2 million raise for 2021. The third-worst offensive player in 2020 is slated for a $2 million raise. But we also have Schwarber slated for a potential $2.3 million raise. Coincidently, they also have Jose Martinez scheduled to take a reduced salary in 2021 ($2.43 to a potential $2.4). There are also several Cubs that should expect no change in salary year-over-year.

I still am more intrigued by the room this could provide the Cubs through their non-tenders. I have shown how the Cubs would likely have around $35 million to spend in the offseason, and non-tendering several players could free up quite a bit more.

Suggestions you ask? Suggestions I give.

• Jose Martinez – $2.43m
• Colin Rea – $565k
• Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575m
• Total: $4.57m

While this provides just under $5 million in relief, this also provides something in the range of a potential $18 million in future relief as well. For a team that is looking to find a way to creatively extend players, this provides some future wiggle room that they didn’t know existed.

It will be incredibly important for the Cubs to drop their payroll below $210 million for 2021, assuming Jon Lester and Daniel Descalso do not return. This would provide roughly $16.5 million in salary relief. Add this to the loss of Tyler Chatwood ($13m), Jose Quintana ($10.5m), Andrew Chafin ($3.04m, not all Cubs), Pedro Strop ($675k), Cameron Maybin ($1.5m, not all Cubs), Jeremy Jeffress ($850k), Jason Kipnis ($1m), and Billy Hamilton ($1m, not all Cubs). This represents an estimated $45 million.

The Cubs only have five players with a committed salary in 2021. There are 12 players up for salary arbitration (I suggest non-tendering at least three, but I can see them selecting up to five). There are eight more that are in a pre-arb status. With a 26-man roster, without any trades, I’d guess the Cubs add another five players through free agency.

Trades you ask? Well, that is a subject that if I discuss now I’ll end up spending far too much time in the comments correcting people. Yeah, I mean you.