My Ballot: 2016 Hall of Fame Ballot
The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) was founded in 1908 as a means to help improve the working conditions for sportswriters who covered baseball. The organization later gained the authority to vote on baseball awards, such as; MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year, and also gained the honor of voting for the entrants to be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.
101 years later the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America (IBWAA) was formed to support the digital age of baseball writers. The IBWAA’s goals are to be an alternative association for writers from all areas of writing (print, digital, elsewhere) to have a voice in the cluttered world that is the media. Through that voice we are privileged with the honor of voting for the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year awards. Additionally the IBWAA has created a Rollie Fingers American League Relief Pitcher of the Year and Hoyt Wilhelm National League Relief Pitcher of the Year Awards.
The greatest honor is in December when each writer (unlike the BBWAA) can vote for the Hall of Fame.
This creates a very interesting experiment each and every year. While there are sure-fire Hall of Fame players on the ballot, there seems to be more reluctance from the BBWAA to vote for some players based on any number of factors that typically doesn’t make sense.
…doesn’t think they are a first ballot type, was bad with the media, doesn’t want to vote player x in because player y is also on a ballot, and any number of other mindless dribble…
It seems, so far, that the IBWAA vote has disregarded some of the nonsense in voting that some of the BBWAA writers have had in the past. The proof of this is in the past season’s Hall of Fame voting.
In 2015 the IBWAA elected Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines. The BBWAA elected Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio. The IBWAA had already voted Biggio in (2014) and Raines remains on the BBWAA ballot.
Here is a glance at the 2016 IBWAA Official Ballot.
As you can see, the likes of Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, and Raines have already been elected (unlike the BBWAA).
With seeing the ballot, here are my selections for the 2016 Hall of Fame Class.
Alan Trammell
It seems as though Alan Trammell is the quintessential under the radar guy. While any casual fan outside of Detroit struggles to really explain to you what Trammell was as a player, looking back at the back of his baseball card (especially one made by Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference) will blow you away.
Trammell probably wasn’t helped by being on the ballot for the first time alongside of possibly the best shortstop to ever play the game, Ozzie Smith. While Smith was inducted on his first try, Alan received only 15.7% of the vote.
As much as Ozzie may have hurt Trammell, Barry Larkin was supposed to help him. Even looking at their Baseball-Reference.com pages (conviently linked to each player’s name), you will see the player Alan is most similar to is Larkin. Their WAR is eerily similar (70.4 for Alan, 70.2 for Larkin) and similar average and power numbers. Where Larkin had a better OPS (.815 to Alan’s .767) Trammel nearly doubled Larkin’s Defensive Wins Above Replacement, 22 to Barry’s 13.8.
In fact, the average WAR of a Hall of Fame shortstop is 66.7. There are four shortstops with a career WAR above that mark, not already in the Hall of Fame:
1. Alex Rodriguez 118.9 (still playing, but PEDs, and a position change might change his history)
2. Bill Dahlen 75.2 (mystery as to why he’s been left out, he is on the 2016 Pre-Integration ballot which will be voted on this year)
3. Derek Jeter 71.8 (most likely a first ballot guy once eligible in 2019)
4. Alan Trammell 70.4
It is time to end the questions with Alan Trammell and place him in Cooperstown with all the other great shortstops.
Lee Smith
At the time that Lee Smith retired he was the career saves leader. With more than 478 career saves, Smith showed the career dominance that voters typically look for when considering the Hall of Fame.
The picture of consistency, Smith closed out ballgames for eight teams for 21 years. Lee took to the mound in the ninth and compiled a 3.03 ERA to go along with those 478 saves in 1,289 IP, and a 29.4 WAR.
To be fair to the BBWAA in the case of Lee Smith, there really aren’t a lot of standards to compare relievers to in the Hall of Fame. The list includes the names of; Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Rich Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Rollie Fingers.
So where does Lee Smith fit in this conversation?
Well, Eckersley’s lore comes from his ability to flip from a quality starter into one of the most dominate closers of all-time. While his career 3.50 ERA doesn’t stand up against Wilhelm’s (2.52), Eckersley is in the Hall because of his dominance over a decade, something else baseball writers hold dear when voting .
Lucky for us, Jay Jaffe created JAWS as a way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by calculating his average WAR season with his seven year peak (WAR7). You could easily take his JAWS and compare it to that of the current Hall of Fame players already enshrined at his position.
Lee Smith had a 25.4 JAWS over his 18-year career. The average Hall of Fame relief pitcher has a 34.4 JAWS. While simple math says he’s well below average at the position, I would remind you that there are only FIVE relievers enshrined today.
While Smith was not comparable to Eckersley or even Gossage, he does in fact compare to Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers.
If it is possible that as a whole Lee Smith was a better pitcher than two current Hall of Fame relief pitchers, and retired as the all-time leader in saves, it shouldn’t be a stretch to say that Smith belongs to be included in Cooperstown with them.
Trevor Hoffman
There will be a very similar argument surrounding Trevor Hoffman as there is around Lee Smith. Mostly it surrounds around some fans ideas that closers, or just all relief pitchers, do not belong because these are the guys that weren’t good enough to be starters.
There is also the argument that these players do not log enough time to truly make an impact on a game to be considered a dominate figure in the sport.
I suggest they have never had to face a 97 MPH heater that looks like it was going to hit you in the torso and then moved back over the plate for strike three to end a ballgame.
but I digress…
Hoffman never had that 97 MPH heater, heck he was more than 10 miles per hour under averaging 86.5 MPH on his fastballs throughout his career. But he had possibly the most devastating change-up in baseball.
His change-up is the pitch that helped guide his way to owning the highest strikeout per nine innings mark of any reliever, and not to mention the most saves of all time (at the time of his retirement). While some still will point to Hoffman only pitching an inning, he was able to dominate his position for 18 years, with nine of those seasons recording 40 or more saves (most among any reliever in the Hall).
(Not to continue to make arguments for Lee Smith) Hoffman has a ton of support going into the first time on the ballot, much more so than Smith has or first-time ballot mate Billy Wagner. While certainly worthy of that support, typically relievers do not get the call for their “sexy” numbers… strikeouts, saves, ERA… but Trevor will more than likely be the exception.
Not only did he surpass Lee Smith’s career saves mark, he demolished it. Finishing his career with 123 more saves than Smith should definitely be something that voters need to consider. Additionally, his near 10 K/9 mark shows his ability to dominate, even in a smaller innings window.
Ken Griffey Jr
1989 happened and Ken Griffey Jr became the best baseball player I had ever watched. I grew up in the Chicago area and Ryne Sandberg had always been my favorite player. In an honest moment, Griffey Jr challenged that fandom.
“The Kid” showed the baseball world that baseball was fun again. The backwards hat, the smooth swing, the joyful excitement when he made a fantastic defensive play or belted a huge home run… it was an honor to watch him play.
Now all of the stats…
There will always be a huge portion of baseball fans that sit and think, what could he have become? If he remained healthy would he of surpassed Hank Aaron‘s home run record? If he remained healthy, could he have become the best player of all-time?
We will never really know, but what we do know is… he was damn good.
To look at his JAWS, he ranks fifth all-time in centerfield behind Mickey Mantle, Tris Speaker, Ty Cobb, and Willie Mays. He ranks fifth all-time in WAR7 for centerfielders behind those same four suspects. And yes… he ranks fifth all-time in overall WAR from a centerfielder.
Then you look at the sexy numbers…
He ranks second all-time in home runs for a centerfielder (630) behind only Willie Mays (660). He ranks third in RBIs, behind Ty Cobb and Willie Mays. He ranks fourth in hits, fourth in doubles, seventh in runs, and fourth in games played as a centerfielder. Additionally, he ranks sixth all-time in home runs and fifteenth all-time in runs batted in.
While there will certainly be some arguments when all of the Hall of Fame inductees are named — over who should be in — you will not hear a single person call into question Ken Griffey Jr’s name when he is undoubtedly announced.
So, who did I leave off the ballot? Who did I vote for that you highly disagree with?
Let me know in the comments.
* I did indeed purposely leave off any player with a rumored involvement in PEDs. While I do not assume I’m a judge in these cases, I would prefer there to be a little more guidance from either MLB or the Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum on performance enhancing drug use and enshrinement. While I personally believe the Hall is ultimately a museum, built to tell the story of baseball, its quirkiness, its worst moments and its best, labeling someone a Hall of Famer without consent of higher powers is not a conversation I look forward to at this point.
