OPENING DAY ROSTER ALMOST SET
The Cubs made some additional moves today shaving a few more names off the roster. According to MLB rules, the 25 man roster doesn’t have to be named until just prior to the first game. So technically the Cubs could take these final 10 days to figure this out.
Seven more players were eliminated from the list of potential players heading to St. Louis on April 2nd. Jim Henderson, who spent a few days with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, was given his release today. As a non roster invitee (NRI), he was not given a major league deal when he came to camp. This move did not affect the 40 man roster.
Three players on the 40 man roster were assigned to AAA Iowa. Those players include Jeimer Candelario, Jake Buchanan, and Alec Mills. It is possible that one or more of these players might still participate in some Cactus League games as the preseason winds down. The other three players assigned to the minor leagues were Dylan Floro, William Perez, and David Rollins all NRI.
But I want to focus on who is left, not who is gone.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS
While it is being reported that today’s “cuts” sets the count at 36, there are actually just 29 players left in camp from the 40 man roster. Of those 29 there are 22 that are automatic, barring injury. Do I really need to name them? OK…
Brett Anderson (especially after the pitching rotation story that came out today), Jake Arrieta, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Wade Davis, Carl Edwards, Justin Grimm, Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Miguel Montero, Mike Montgomery, Anthony Rizzo, Hector Rondon, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Pedro Strop, Koji Uehara, Ben Zobrist
I hear you asking; “Where’s Albert Almora and Matt Szczur?” Almora has to be at least a 99.9% chance to make the final roster. The only reason I didn’t include him in the 22 is because he does have minor league options. Meanwhile, Szczur is out of options and I only left him off because of the rumors this week regarding a trade. Something I suggested over a week ago. This week Ken Rosenthal reported that the Atlanta Braves were showing interest in Szczur. He also mentioned that the Cubs were likely going to hang on to him. What was he trying to tell us? If you want to add them to the 22, that’s easy math and leaves only one spot remaining. But there is the outside chance there are still three spots available.
STILL IN THE MIX
Let’s compare the reported 36 players left in camp to the 29 players that remain from the 40 man roster. That is a difference of seven, which means there are still NRI’s in camp. They may not be the magnificent seven, but a few may still have an outside chance to at least make the 40 man roster. The obvious is Ian Happ. He has been destroying Spring Training pitching, but has shown there is still work to be done in the field. It won’t surprise anyone to see his name get added to the 40 man roster before April 2nd.
John Andreoli had a good showing with Team Italy in the WBC and will likely be chasing fly balls in Des Moines most of 2017. Taylor Davis, who raised a ton of money by getting his flowing blonde locks cut, has also had a great Spring. However, expect him to be behind the dish in AAA along with Carlos Corporan.
Chris Dominguez has shown some power and a decent glove at first base, but again Iowa here he comes. Munenori Kawasaki keeps hanging around. In spite of his age, he seems to be an insurance policy and could work his way back on the 40 man roster. September might be the only time he gets back into the MLB dugout. Jemile Weeks is the last NRI player and an injury has kept him out of many games this Spring. Not sure if he’ll go to Iowa or be released like Henderson.
WHO IS LEFT?
So we named 22 (OK 24) players very likely to make the 25 man roster of the 29 players left from the 40 man roster. So who are the remaining five players? Well there is Eddie Butler, who has been very impressive this Spring, but will likely continue his comeback in AAA. Then there is Rob Zastryzny, who seemed to have an outside chance to make the 25 man roster, but also looks to be headed to Des Moines. Of course, remember that being on the 40 man roster means you could be called up at any time during the season.
Caleb Smith and Brian Duensing have a lot in common. Both are left handed pitchers and both have major league contracts placing them on the 25 man roster. If either is NOT named to the 25 man roster, they could end up with other teams rather than in AAA Iowa. The only way both make the 25 man roster would be if the Cubs don’t trade or cut Szczur and option Almora (thus the 99.9% for Albert). I expect one, if not both of these players to be let go if the Szczur trade doesn’t happen. Letting one or both go, does open up a spot for someone like Happ. I totally expect Happ to be on the 40 man roster by April 2nd. Did I mention that?
Finally we have Tommy La Stella. Can we just forget about last year? it seems the entire organization has.
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
If you were counting, there are 12 pitchers on the list of 22 names. If the Cubs go with 12 pitchers and 13 position players, just add La Stella with Almora and Szczur. The versatility of the position players, however, allows the Cubs to go with just 12 position players and thus carry 13 pitchers.
If the Cubs keep both Szczur and Almora, that locks up the 12 position player spots. Which means Duensing, Smith, Zastryzny, or Butler (likely in that order) will be the 13th pitcher.
I know what you’re saying, “Nothing has really changed since February 14th when the pitchers and catchers reported”. Maybe, but it definitely seems to be more clear. Still, several things to consider for those last few spots. What might be surprising is that talent might have very little to do with these last few decisions.
