Primed for a Long Term Deal
Under Armour
The clearest route to becoming a successful franchise is through drafting good young talent. While there is a risk to this approach, five of the past six champions had a roster built predominantly of homegrown talent. The way baseball’s economics work, teams only have a six-year window before their talent begins to leave town. Once that window begins to close you better hope you’ve continued to draft well and was able to sign a couple of guys before they leave.
One of the best ways to circumvent the mass exodus is signing guys before their rookie deal is up. This isn’t a new concept, many teams have employed it. The Cubs used it to lock up Anthony Rizzo in 2013.
It would be great if the Cubs could lock up all their youngsters, but that isn’t possible. Kris Bryant, a Scott Boras client, is poised to earn a $35 million per year contract in just a few short years.
Neither Addison Russell or Javier Baez should need a deal like this. I don’t even know how you could construct a deal for Kyle Schwarber. Kyle Hendricks could be that type of guy, but with the money getting tossed around to pitchers nowadays he’ll likely cost himself money.
The guy that is primed for a long-term deal, buying out their arbitration years is Willson Contreras.
Willson Contreras
Already pegged as the game’s third-best catcher, Willson has superstar written all over him.
Before Contreras was placed on the DL he was the Cubs MVP. Especially in early August, where every rally was done so behind a huge hit from Contreras.
Defensively Contreras is making a name for himself as well. With a strong arm, he has cut down would-be base stealers and back-picked unsuspecting men on base.
Emotionally Willson has been a spark plug. He’s fiery, energetic, animated. He is the first to put an arm around your shoulder, but not afraid the yell at even the most red-assed veterans.
This is the type of guy you want around for a long time.
Contreras contract
Why sign Contreras now? He’s a guy whose star is on the rise. His modest sub-$550,000 salary would likely explode once he hits arbitration. To what is anyone’s guess.
A Contreras extension is a very interesting one too. If he continued down the arbitration path, his first jump could increase as high as Buster Posey’s 2013 jump. I am not saying that Contreras is as good as Buster, but for the game to remain healthy, salaries should increase (and yes, even to potentially underserved astronomical levels). We saw Kris Bryant break the first year arbitration record, Jake Arrieta broke the arbitration gap record, and Josh Donaldson broke the all-time record this offseason. After several years of a rather predictable and stagnant arbitration process, this current changeup is very welcomed. It also makes it more difficult for teams to sign players to a long-term deal.
Take Anthony Rizzo‘s extension back in 2013. The deal gave Rizzo a $2 million signing bonus and $750,000 salary for 2013. Then increased a modest $1.25 million in 2014, $5 million in 2015 and 2016, $7 million in 2017 and 2018, and $11 million in 2019. Rizzo’s deal also includes two separate $14.5 million club options through 2021. Something in this framework would be a great deal for both sides. It would give Contreras an increase in the next two seasons, a guaranteed significant increase in 2020, another increase in 2021 and fair salary in 2022. Another significant increase in 2023 and I would guarantee his 2024 and 2025 salaries.
If the Cubs and Contreras come together for an extension, they need to do it like now. Willson doesn’t become eligible for salary arbitration until 2020. So why do it now when the Cubs could wait and save some money? Simply put, once he hits arbitration free agency is in his sights — and $80 million-plus paydays. Would you rather know you have Willson under team control until 2025 at a manageable rate, or succumb to a potentially unstable arbitration process and lose him in 2023?
Excuse me while I try and conference Theo Epstein and Willson Contreras’ agents.
