Provocative Jake Arrieta Possibility Becoming More Likely?
The baseball owners and players union avoided their first work stoppage since 1995 when they agreed to the new CBA this week. Perhaps the biggest win in the new agreement was the all-star game no longer decides home field advantage for the World Series.
What is probably most important, which will change the strategy in which team’s look at, and handle potential free agents is, the changes to the Qualifying Offer.
Turns out draft-pick compensation won't disappear. Teams over threshold lose a 2nd- & 5th-round pick. Under threshold: lose 3rd-round pick.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 1, 2016
Basically this allows for a team to actively pursue free agents that have been offered the QO, without losing a first round pick. Additionally it would allow a team under the luxury-tax to ONLY lose a third round pick, while a team over the threshold would lose a second and fifth round pick. Small market’s can now actually be a player in high value free agents, without the fear of setting their franchise back years by losing their top draft pick that season.
That’s right Billy, the old team (the team that offered the Qualifying Offer) would only receive the pick IF the player signs a $50 million total contract.
Team that loses QO free agent will get pick only if player signs contract of $50M+. Pick it gets will depend upon that team’s market size.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 1, 2016
This could be a reaction to what happened with Dexter Fowler in 2015, and many others in recent memory. While Dexter was certainly worthy of long-term deal, he didn’t get too much traction due to any team signing them needing to give up a first round draft pick. In fact, the only team (Baltimore) willing to sign him, asked him to compensate them in return for losing their draft pick.
But what does this have to do with Jake Arrieta?
Jake is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2017 season, and with the Cubs more than likely not surpassing the luxury-tax threshold  ($195 million), would stand to earn back a sandwiched second and fifth round pick. For a pitcher that just about equalled the greatest stretch of pitching ever, in the history of the game, the Cubs would only secure a second and fifth round pick for Jake.
How would they combat this? Simple, resign him or trade him.
To resign Jake Arrieta it will take $200 million and a seven year deal. The Cubs, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, are smarter than that. In a contract that would cover his age 32 through 38 seasons, a smart front office cannot pay an average of $28 million to a guy that was inconsistent through much of the 2016 season. While they could front load a deal, making the final three or four years easier to swallow, that would be a change from how most of these deals are done now.
It isn’t that the Cubs don’t have, or won’t have the money, it is more due to the fact that sometime in the next five years the team will need to pay the likes of Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant. I again, don’t think finances would be an issue, but the potential $28 million could be better spent elsewhere down the road.
This opens the possibility to trade.
The Cubs have been in several trade rumors already this offseason, and one name that has come up, surprisingly, has been Arrieta.
It sounds like the #Cubs might actually have some serious interest in the #Tigers Justin Verlander. Jake Arrieta could be involved as well
— Sean Sears (@seanrsears) November 29, 2016
Real fast, while I know I just used a tweet from a guy named Sean Sears, and not someone like Jayson Stark, or Ken Rosenthal, or Jon Heyman, or Bruce Levine, or David Kaplan, or hell, even Gordo. But I’m going to tell you, Sean has been privileged to some exceptional info of late.
His source, and what I’m saying doesn’t mean that it’s happening, but there are strong indications that there has been some conversation, at least internally, about an Arrieta/Verlander swap. The recent changes to QO in the CBA does in fact make a Jake Arrieta trade more likely than it was before this change. While a first round sandwich pick wouldn’t necessarily replace Jake, a sandwiched second and fifth wouldn’t either – so should the Cubs let Jake walk and get nothing in return (besides maybe another Cubs World Series).
Now, there is some smoke to a potential Justin Verlander deal. The Detroit Tigers are certainly stuck in a bad spot. They have several high priced players, and they seem to be stuck in that 75-85 win sandbox that is painstakingly difficult to escape from. The Cubs were in that bubble before Theo reconstructed the entire organization. Now the Tigers could go the route that the Cubs went, but the CBA would restrict their ability to grow through the draft since players offered a QO will no longer fetch a first round pick in return. So they are probably forced to deal current players for prospects.
A deal between the Cubs and Tigers would also include a top prospect or two in return, since the Cubs would get Verlander’s services for the next four seasons. Now that will be Justin’s age 34 through 37 age seasons, but it is still the services of an ace for several years, and that in itself costs something in baseball.
But more likely the Cubs would deal Arrieta to a team like the Seattle Mariners. A team that has a rather rich farm, and can send the Cubs someone like a Tyler O’Neill or a Luis Gohara and an Ariel Miranda? The Atlanta Braves have been heel bent on acquiring pitching this offseason, and have several of baseball’s top 100 prospects. Any of the west coast teams besides the Angels or Athletics would be a good spot as well, and they each have high value pitching prospects that can come back in trade. While the LA Dodgers might be facing financial ruin (maybe, kind of, sort of), I would be happy to net a couple of these guys in return for Arrieta. Plus, the Dodgers have seen firsthand just how deadly Jake can be.
I’m not sold on Jake being moved, but the current climate, and Jake’s own words, have inched me closer and closer to believing that it is something that could potentially happen at some point. Look, the offseason can be a weird, weird place, and the Winter Meetings is just the time to have strange ideas turned into some sort of reality. I don’t think he’ll go, but don’t be too surprised Cubs fans if there’s more smoke to this small rumor.
