This Series is Ridiculous, How the Cubs Can Win

So… Wednesday night’s National League Wild Card game didn’t exactly go as most Chicago Cubs fans wanted. While the Cubs can never seem to shake off the New York Mets, the San Francisco Giants pose an incredible threat. Their pitching, experience, the fact that it’s an even year (I mean it’s not a thing, but it’s a thing… right?), and this was the best team in through the first half of the season.

Pitching

The pitching in this series is lining up to be fantastic. In Game One we get Johnny Cueto against Jon Lester in Wrigley Field. Immediately you may say advantage Cubs, but don’t count Cueto out. Johnny (Cueto) finished the 2016 season with a 2.79 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, and 2.94 FIP, his name will be in the Cy Young conversion, again. In fact, Cueto may have been the single biggest victim of Clayton Kershaw’s brilliance, finishing second in Cy Young voting in his outstanding 2014 season.

What it could come down to…

Lester has been brilliant in 2016, and if I had a dollar I’m putting it on Jon to win the 2016 Cy Young. As good as he had been, he has been even better at home, pitching to a 1.74 ERA, 0.890 WHIP, and a 10-2 record. Cueto on the other hand has been good, but not great in Chicago. His lifetime 3.05 ERA and 1.260 WHIP at Wrigley has been just enough to award him a .500 record at the confines. Lester will continue his brilliance in a low scoring affair.

Game Two is the return of Jeff Samardzija. Jeff will matchup against the Cubs soft throwing Cy Young candidate, Kyle Hendricks. Jeff has had a Resurgence types season in San Francisco, rebounding after a terrible year on the southside of Chicago for the White Sox. Or so we are lead to think anyways…

He finished the year with a 3.81 ERA, and while he ended the 2016 season better than he began – 3.91 first half ERA, 3.66 second half – he doesn’t strike fear into an opposing team.

While Kyle Hendricks probably doesn’t scare a hitter, he has been one of the hardest pitchers to hit in the 2016 season. Like Lester, Kyle has thwarted opposing offenses at home – pitching it to the tune of a 1.32 ERA and 0.860 WHIP. While Jeff is no stranger to Wrigley, the Cubs have roughed him up to the tune of a 8.10 ERA and nearly a 2.000 WHIP.

There’s no shark attacks in Chicago, and the Cubs, behind Hendricks, will take a 2-0 series lead going to San Francisco.

Game Three. Madison Bamgartner IS THE BEST PLAYOFF PITCHER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME. He cemented that when he completed the shutout against the Mets on Wednesday night. He has now pitched 23 straight scoreless innings in elimination games, and will be favored against any lineup in the playoffs.

Madbum will matchup against Jake Arrieta. Through all the belly-aching about Arrieta’s season, he was one of the top five hardest pitchers to hit in 2016. Arrieta has also been extremely tough in California over the past two seasons, giving up a total of 1 run and 12 hits in 37.0 innings pitched on the left coast.

2016
Ballpark	Runs	Hits	Walks	IP	ERA	WHIP
Angels Stadium	0	2	1	7.0	0.00	0.429
PetCo Park	0	2	3	8.0	0.00	0.625
AT&T Park	1	4	2	7.0	1.29	0.857
Totals	1	8	6	22.0	0.43	0.637
2015
Dodgers Stadium	0	0	1	9.0	0.00	0.111
AT&T Park	0	4	1	6.0	0.00	0.833
Totals	0	4	2	15.0	0.00	0.472

He has also been incredible in AT&T Park, giving up 1 Run in his two starts in San Francisco over the past two seasons. If we get the typical California Arrieta, this will be a great duel, if not – the Giants win Game Three.

Regardless, you cannot bet against Madbum in the playoffs and the Giants avoid elimination for another day.

Offense

The Giants showed the world that anything can happen in the playoffs, and anyone can be the hero. Wednesday night Conor Gillaspie was that hero. On paper this is how the two teams matchup (likely lineups). While I am using lineups that were the most often used lineups, and I am not directly comparing position to position (somewhat unorthodox) I did want to show the matchup, batter-by-batter.

	Chicago Cubs		San Francisco Giants
1	Dexter Fowler, CF	1	Denard Span, CF
2	Kris Bryant, 3B/LF	2	Joe Panik, 2B
3	Anthony Rizzo, 1B	3	Brandon Belt, 1B
4	Ben Zobrist, 2B	4	Buster Posey, C
5	Addison Russell, SS	5	Brandon Crawford, SS
6	Jason Heyward, RF	6	Hunter Pence, RF
7	Javier Baez, 3B/UT	7	Angel Pagan, LF
8	Contreras/Ross, C	8	Conor Gillaspie, 3B

Not only does Dexter Fowler hold a 60 point advantage over Denard Span in OBP, his dominance stems to just about every other offensive category that is measured. Don’t trust my word, well here you go…

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Span	143.0	637	572	70	152	23	5	11	53	12	7	53	79	0.266	0.331	0.381	0.712
Fowler	125.0	551	456	84	126	25	7	13	48	13	4	79	124	0.276	0.393	0.447	0.840

Fowler also has a 4.2 WAR while Span finished at 1.0. We shouldn’t be surprised here as Fowler spent much of the first half of the season being thrown into MVP conversations – and deservedly so.

Can the Kris Bryant and Joe Panik be even more lopsided? Well here we go…

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Panik	127.0	526	464	67	111	21	7	10	62	5	0	50	47	0.239	0.315	0.379	0.695
Bryant	155.0	699	603	121	176	35	3	39	102	8	5	75	154	0.292	0.385	0.554	0.939

You’ll always have triples Joe…

Seriously though, Kris only has a couple of comparables in the league, and possibly only one player would beat him handedly – Mike Trout – and fortunately (or unfortunately) the Cubs will not face the Angels this postseason. Bryant is a MVP candidate, and for many the frontrunner to take home the award. In a WAR argument, which is tough to do since they both play different positions, Bryant is 6.6 wins better than he is.

Anthony Rizzo is also clearly better than the three hole hitter for the Giants, Brandon Belt. While it isn’t as much of a complete runaway conversation, Rizzo clearly was the more talented hitter in 2016.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Belt	156.0	655	542	77	149	41	8	17	82	0	4	104	148	0.275	0.394	0.474	0.868
Rizzo	155.0	676	583	94	170	43	4	32	109	3	5	74	108	0.292	0.385	0.544	0.928

Rizzo finished the 2016 season at a 5.7 WAR player and Belt finished at 4.3. Like I mentioned, Rizzo is a better player, but Belt is certainly a dangerous bat as well.

Now we get to Ben Zobrist and Buster Posey.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Posey	146.0	614	539	82	155	33	2	14	80	6	1	64	68	0.288	0.362	0.434	0.796
Zobrist	147.0	631	523	94	142	31	3	18	76	6	4	96	82	0.272	0.386	0.446	0.831

On paper, this year, you would give a slight advantage to Ben Zobrist. While Zobrist has a 3.8 WAR, and Posey finished with a 4.7 WAR, these are adjusted per position and it is tough to compare a second baseman’s performance to a catcher’s performance. So lets take a look at each player’s postseason performance.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Posey	49.0	214	191	16	46	3	0	4	21	1	1	21	40	0.241	0.318	0.319	0.637
Zobrist	37.0	148	132	22	34	10	0	4	9	1	0	13	20	0.258	0.327	0.424	0.751

While Posey has driven in more runs, runs are often more of a product of those around you than a testament of you yourself. So we look at other stats, and mostly everything on paper seems to tell a story of similar players during the 2016 season as well as their performance in the playoffs.

So really on this one I have to go to pedigree, and Posey owns that conversation. While Zobrist will be remembered as a very good player during his time in the majors, Posey has started to write a possible Hall of Fame type of career. The advantage, after much deliberation, goes to Posey.

The Addison Russell and Brandon Crawford conversation is not going to be one that fellow Cubs fans will like. While I like Russell, and I feel he has the ability to one day be in the MVP type of conversations, he isn’t there today and Crawford is a better all around bat at this point.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Crawford	155.0	623	553	67	152	28	11	12	84	7	0	57	115	0.275	0.342	0.430	0.772
Russell	151.0	598	525	67	125	25	3	21	95	5	1	55	135	0.238	0.321	0.417	0.738

Yes I know Addison hit more home runs, yes I know Addison drove in more runs (see Buster Posey Ben Zobrist conversation), but Crawford has a more reliable bat at this point. A better average, better on base percentage, better slugging percentage (mostly due to making more contact leading to more doubles and triples) – which leads to a better OPS. Russell makes it a much closer conversation when considering WAR (Crawford leads 4.5 to 4.3) but this takes into account defense – which Russell might be the best defensive short stop in the National League.

I don’t know if anyone would seriously argue this, but Hunter Pence is the first no doubt advantage for the Giants. He bats more than likely sixth, and this is where we find Jason Heyward.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pence	106.0	442	395	58	114	23	1	13	57	1	1	43	95	0.289	0.357	0.451	0.808
Heyward	142.0	592	530	61	122	27	1	7	49	11	4	54	93	0.23	0.306	0.325	0.631

As Cubs fans we can only hope that Heyward finds his stroke in the playoffs, but I would also put money on Heyward batting further down in the lineup during the postseason.

This is an interesting comparison – Javier Baez and Angel Pagan.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pagan	129	543	495	71	137	24	5	12	55	15	4	42	66	0.277	0.331	0.418	0.750
Baez	142	450	421	50	115	19	1	14	59	12	3	15	108	0.273	0.314	0.423	0.737

The two had a very, very similar season. While Baez has struck out, and will strike out, more than Pagan, their actual numbers average out similarly. We could measure the two by WAR (like I have with each other position, however, like mentioned, we are comparing different positions and it doesn’t exactly relate). Baez finished with a 3.4 WAR, and Pagan finished with a 1.0, but keep in mind Pagan is weighed much more heavily as a corner outfielder than Baez is as a utility player.

Ultimately I will give an advantage to Pagan because of the experience and Baez’s high chance of striking out, especially facing Giants pitchers that tend to strike out a lot of batters.

The eighth spot is a toss up. While Gillespie was the Wild Card hero, he more than likely will not be the guy to carry the Giants in this series. Likewise, how can anyone expect a lot from Willson Contreras, David Ross, or even Miguel Montero.

	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gillaspie	101	205	191	24	50	8	4	6	25	1	2	12	28	0.262	0.307	0.440	0.747
Contreras	76	283	252	33	71	14	1	12	35	2	2	26	67	0.282	0.357	0.488	0.845
Ross	67	205	166	24	38	6	0	10	32	0	1	30	54	0.229	0.338	0.446	0.784
Montero	86	284	241	33	52	8	1	8	33	1	0	38	58	0.216	0.327	0.357	0.684

If I were a betting man, I would think Contreras finds a way to come through with a couple of big hits. I don’t think we should expect something like Kyle Schwarber out of him, but I can see him contributing in this series. But I will say this is a push spot, and if any of the two teams are relying on their eighth spot for much production – they are in a bad spot.

Defense

This isn’t even a conversation. The Chicago Cubs may have been the most reliable defense in 2016, followed by the San Francisco Giants. While they may have finished one/two in the standings – it wasn’t close at all.

Two days ago we posted an under-read piece on the Chicago Cubs and their postseason chances in 2016. In that piece we showed you how the Cubs defense had saved 82 Runs on the season. This is a great figure, but what is even more interesting (or impressive) is that they had saved 32 more runs than the second place Giants had. Taking this even further, UZR – the most widely used metric to establish how good (or bad) a player (or team) is at saving or giving up runs – the Cubs led the league with a 73.7 UZR while the second place Giants finished with a 42.6 mark.

That 31.1 difference in UZR is the largest difference between teams in a season, ever.

To add to the Cubs team defense, there will likely be three Gold Glove winners on the Cubs – Jason Heyward, Addison Russell, and Anthony Rizzo – and that doesn’t even mention the brilliance of Javier Baez.

Manager

How can one decide between Bruce Bochy and Joe Maddon? Joe has taken the Cubs to two consecutive playoffs, and last season brought the team to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2003. Bruce has been the standard in the National League. Winning three World Series’ in the past six seasons, and has his team in position to win their third.

“Any ranking based outside of straight numbers is an inexact science.”

Sporting News put out an article earlier in the year ranking all 30 managers. They selected Bruce Bochy as the number one, and Maddon as the number two manager in baseball. They rated Bochy as the top guy as he is looking to add the team’s fourth championship in seven years, even with multiple injuries and a poor bullpen. Maddon ranks high as being the ultimate players manager, as a guy who gets more buy-in from more players than any other skipper in the league.

These are completely accurate descriptions of each, and to be honest, to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. Bochy is the best manager in the game right now, Maddon is a close second. For Maddon to become the best, he must beat Bochy. Because he hasn’t, yet, Bochy earns this nod.

Prediction

As much as I believe this is going to be a good, hard fought series, I do think the Cubs win it in four games. Their talent on paper is so much better than that of the Giants. The Cubs lineup is 10 times better than the Giants, the rotation is better, the defense is better, the intangibles are better. This is the Cubs series to lose.

While this is the playoffs, and in the playoffs stupid things (stupid in a sense, but typically they are phenomenally great moments) happen, i.e. Conor Gillaspie – the Giants have a real shot of stealing this series. But aside from freak moments, the Cubs are built for this, and built for this series.

Cubs in Four