Starting Bote Over Kris Bryant Is Not Your Best Idea
Per MLB.com
About three years ago I pitched the idea of creating a social blog to the Chicago Tribune and their blogging wing, Chicago Now. The idea was loved, however, they were afraid that I wouldn’t be accepted by the other bloggers. That in itself is a much longer story… But a lot of my stories I have written here have come from conversations I’ve had on social media or have read on social media. I have used this as a vehicle to correct general thoughts that were bad, and I have used it to sort out how I really think about a general topic facing one of the Chicago sports teams.
But today I am using the blog to address a social media idea that just needs to stop. Like right now. That idea is starting David Bote over Kris Bryant.
¿Estas loco?
The moment the Chicago Cubs drafted Bryant is the moment the Cubs etched their name on a World Series trophy. He has always been an incredible talent, with outstanding instincts, and ability to do everything on a baseball diamond better than nearly every player in the game. In the 2013 draft, Bryant was hands down the best hitter in the draft – oh, and that draft included Aaron Judge.
In 62 games as a junior, Bryant destroyed the University of San Diego’s HR record and also led Team USA in slugging. He hit for average, power, had a plus arm, profiled out at corner OF spots, first base, but scouts agreed that he would eventually grade to be the perfect third baseman. Sure there were others that questioned his eventual position, that’s what happens during drafts, but this was a sure-fire MLB player that fell to the Cubs – who drafted second.
He came to the Cubs as a pure blue chip dude, and quickly climbed the Cubs system and forced his way onto the big league club after hitting .327/.397/.676 with a 1.401 OPS and 55 HR, 49 2B, and 152 RBI in 773 minor league plate appearances.
That has translated to a .904 OPS in Bryant’s four MLB seasons. Regardless of some of the power concerns some fans have had with Bryant, his OPS is 10th best in baseball since he was promoted in 2015. His 22.9 WAR is tops in the NL over that time, and fourth best in baseball – all while missing nearly 60 games in 2018 due to injury.
David Bote is so clutch
Yes, since Bote has been on the club he certainly has seemed to come through in what appears to be every clutch situation he has been in. If you pull his “late & close” numbers, Bote’s numbers seem to prove that sentiment (.320/.438/.720). But we must remember, Bote only has 32 plate appearances in these situations and if we have learned anything from baseball statheads or intellectuals, clutchness is something that levels off with a big enough sample size. Meaning, given enough opportunity, your clutch numbers will almost always gravitate towards a players career norms.
But let’s also consider the entire work, both offensively and defensively.
Through all the hype and hoopla around Bote’s heroics, it seems little attention has been paid to his actual performance in 95% of the other situations. He started out looking like a missile shot out of a cannon, hitting .344/.436/.547 in his first 30 games. It was that August 12th night in Wrigley that he launched a 442 foot “ultimate” grand slam where fans really began calling for him to remain a starter regardless of who was healthy. It was also at that time I had called for fans to pump the brakes and see how he performs once the league adjusts to him. Since that time things haven’t looked very good for Bote, hitting .161/.209/.355.
David has still fared well in the “clutch” but this could be explained away as pitchers have less room to work around a hitter for fear of putting another baserunner on base, and needs to straight attack him. It is also likely that David’s method of hitting just bodes well in these situations, since he hits the ball hard, tends to hit velocity well, and late in games he will see much more velocity.
Pedigree
It isn’t fair to compare Bote’s and Bryant’s pedigree. Bryant is a first round, second pick of a draft and Bote was picked in the 18th round. While there are many late-round picks that make it, this happens less and less as scouting has gotten so much better in recent years.
But pedigree aside, Bryant is out-producing Bote offensively. He is slashing .277/.380/.465 on the season, while Bote is slashing .254/.329/.457. David is striking out in 27% of his plate appearances and Bryant is striking out in 21%. Bote walks in 8.8% of his appearances and Bryant walks in 11%. Perhaps most damning to Bote is his performance in starts verse coming off the bench, where he has slashed .225/.296/.383 as a starter and .444/.522/.944 as a substitute.
As a pure player, Kris Bryant is hands down better. But an area where Bote has been impressive is defensively. Bote has 5 DRS in limited action this season, while Bryant has rated out just below replacement level. But suggesting switching Bryant out for Bote because his defense, this season, rates better just isn’t a great opinion to have.
Bryant was, is, and forever will be
Suggesting Bote should start over Kris Bryant just doesn’t look good. You don’t replace a top 10 player in baseball based on an injury-plagued season – especially a season where Bryant has an OPS of .844.
Today, tomorrow, next week, and in the playoffs – as long as Kris Bryant is healthy – he will be the starter at third base. A lineup with Bryant penciled in at 3B is better than any lineup without him there. That doesn’t discredit what Bote has done, because he has been damn good, but maybe we take caution in suggesting the Cubs replace one of baseball’s elite players with role players.
There is an interesting thought around shaking up the defensive positioning. Maybe moving Javier Baez to third, Kris Bryant to a corner outfield spot, and Bote to second. But that would leave Daniel Murphy out of the starting lineup, which the Cubs have won 10 of the 12 games Murphy has started – even if his defense is completely horrible. Maybe you toss Baez at shortstop and give Addison Russell more time, Bryant to a corner spot, Bote to third, and keep Murphy at second, but we are still looking at a struggling Bote which might not prove to enhance the offense.
This just leads us back to the fact that the Cubs are best with Kris Bryant at third base. That is any version of Kris Bryant. Shake it out any way you want to try, but Kris Bryant should be, and is, the Cubs best option at third. So please hard stop this entire idea.
