The Cubs Fans Have a David Bote Problem

In 2018, Chicago Cubs fans were raving about David Bote, and it came after his Ultimate Slam against the Washington Nationals on Sunday Night Baseball. To date, there have only been 27 Ultimate Slams in MLB history, and Bote’s blast was one of three, ever, to come from a pinch-hitter.

Bote showed a knack for the dramatic that season, collecting two walk-off homers (the second against the Cincinnati Reds on August 24th) and another late-inning game-tying homer as well.

This knack and an injury-plagued season from Kris Bryant, caused fans to jump on the Bote bandwagon.

The kick against Bryant had been his inability to come through in the “clutch” and this new kid was blasting homers in the most clutch times. It started to seem like Cubs fans were calling for a Wally Pipp situation, which of course was just plain stupid,

Bryant would come back in 2019 and have a really good season. While he was slowed late, he posted arguably the best month of his career in May, hitting .333/.443/.719 1.162 OPS 193 wRC+ with 10 HR. In fact, up until July 26th, Bryant was hitting .302/.408/.563 .971 OPS 152 wRC+ with 21 homers. He would injure his knee, which slowed him down towards the end of 2019, but unless you had your head in the sand or just ignorantly bash KB to bash KB (which there are more in this group than anyone could imagine).

Because of the resurgence of Bryant (which sounds weird to say knowing he was just injured in 2018), the whispers to change to Bote quieted down. Cubs fans, finally, began to understand Bote was a part-time player, whereas Bryant is a star player. Surprisingly though, Bote had the best season of his short career, but Bryant’s play overshadowed Bote’s improvements.

Then, 2020 happened. Bryant, who may have had some COVID related distractions to begin the season, and finished recovering from multiple injuries while posting the lowest AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+ of his career. I don’t like assuming, but we do know he was outspoken about the testing process, and after the birth of his son, you’d have to be a monster to not understand how someone could have a conflicted mind.

Meanwhile, Bote regained his “clutchness” title, finishing the 2020 season with the most RBI on the team (29). With RISP, Bote hit .379/.486/.690 in 2020. With two-out and RISP, he hit a ridiculous .471/.550/1.000, and collected 13 of his 29 RBI.

While this is great, it didn’t really tell the story of Bote’s season, which was below league-average. He finished 2020 with a 92 wRC+ (8% below league average) and a .711 OPS. His 0.4 fWAR was actually lower than Bryant’s 0.5 fWAR, and KB played less games.

But, mostly due to Bote’s performance with RISP, there was, again, a growing group of Cubs fans calling for Bote to take over Bryant’s job. Now, I’m not naive enough to believe it was just simply due to these numbers. The other factor is the contract, which seemingly has hung over Bryant’s entire career. In 2021, Bryant will be paid $19.5 million and Bote will be paid just over $1 million (he has a $3m hit towards the luxury tax). Cubs fans that are calling for Bote suggest that the $18.5m difference in pay isn’t worth the offensive production they have seen from Bryant (this is where those fans will say since 2016).

Fact is, these two players aren’t the same thing. Bote has performed well in more clutch situations, which are such a small portion of his career. While I noted Bote’s production with two out, RISP above, he only hit .174/.283/.370 in medium leverage situations in 2020. What’s more, the majority of his plate appearances are when no one is on base (this is the same with every player in the game). In those normalized situations, Bote has a career .216/.315/.354 hitter. That is rather putrid.

On top of this, when Bote has started a game, he has a miserable .225/.324/.385 slash line. He essentially hasn’t hit in any spot in the batting order, besides eighth, as shown here (Baseball-Reference.com):

The only time Bote has exceeded as an MLB hitter is when he pinch hits. In those PA, he has slashed .342/.444/.632 on his career.

Those fans calling for Bote to take over Bryant’s job, just haven’t really looked at the numbers. And the numbers they do bring to the table are comparing Bote’s best performances to Bryant’s worst. This is like saying Edwin Jackson should replace Greg Maddux cause Jackson threw a no-hitter while Maddux has never accomplished that feat.

This is part of the Bote problem. Fans have over-projected his value and performance out of bias and (for the lack of a better word) ignorance. Do not get me wrong! Bote is an asset to the team. He is the best right-handed pinch hit bat on the roster. He plays solid enough defense to earn starts from time-to-time. But, I feel fans have a bit of the back-up QB syndrome when it comes to Bote (the old assumption, the favorite QB is the back-up QB).

The Cubs need high-leverage bats for late in the game. This is a tool in their tool belt. David Ross can effectively change the momentum of a game, late, just by calling on Bote in a big spot. As proven, this is when he is at his best. High-Leverage, RISP, two out. He has the best results of anyone on the roster in those situations.

Now, it is unlikely that his superhuman-like performance in those situations continues. I mean, this is an underdog-like kid that has made the most of his opportunities, but in almost every player’s career, their “clutch-stats” have mirrored their normalized stat lines. It only takes a large enough sample size. Once Bote has enough opportunity, his RISP or clutch line will more closely mirror his regular line.

I hate that this comes off like I am dogging my man Bote, that seriously isn’t my intention. I think he is an incredible player, especially when used in the right way. This is something that managers try to do, Joe Maddon used Bote perfectly and got the most out of him. Ross, in 2020, used Bote out of necessity, and he finished the season with a .200/.303/.408 slash line.

Now, the Cubs may need to use Bote in a starting role in 2021 again. No, not at third base ya silly Billy, at second. We don’t necessarily know what the plans are for Nico Hoerner, but he should be part of the Cubs’ not too distant future. I don’t know if starting him at the big league level makes sense in 2021, when there will be a full MLB AND MiLB season. It made sense to have Hoerner on the MLB roster in 2020, since they couldn’t send him to Iowa to get the necessary at-bats. Sure, South Bend had players working out, but you really gain experience when you’re sitting in the box and games are on the line.

It really might make more sense to send Hoerner to Triple-A and give the starting second base job to Bote. While you lose a giant late-inning asset, this allows Hoerner (who projects as a starter) to get his swings in, while growing as a player without the pressure of everyday MLB life. Do you then hand over the starting job to Ildemaro Vargas? What about a short-term flier on Kolton Wong?

I think we can all agree that at this point the club is out of any possible Tommy La Stella reunion.

So this is the problem. Fans will continue to call for Bote. Whether it is to trade Bryant and give Bote the third base job, or giving him every day starts at second because they believe his bat is valuable. When it is valuable, just in the right situation. Does it do anyone any good if he goes 0-12 in three games during normalized scenarios, but hits a single with a man on second in the fourth game? Bryant’s career RISP numbers might not match his normalized results, but at least he’s scoring runs at all times throughout a game, and not just one moment.

This really isn’t just a Bote vs Bryant thing, it is a Bote vs the right time to play him thing. This is an issue a lot of Cubs fans – and the Cubs organization – have in common. He’s being miscast as a starter, when he’s been below average when he does get those starts. If the Cubs organization wants to set him up for success, they will find another second baseman that is able to handle the everyday load. Then Bote can rest into those high-leverage spots he’s done so well in, and Hoerner can get the much-needed reps in Iowa.