The New Plan, How the Cubs Will Navigate the Next few Weeks

Ok, the Kool-Aid has been put down and it’s time, gulp, to finally face the reality of what this Chicago Cubs team is. We have been blessed with mostly good baseball since 2015. It’s now 2021, so let’s first recognize this phenomenal ride it’s been. Let’s celebrate the incredible entertainment this Cubs core gave us. Let’s thank those who afforded is this time in Cubs history.

Now let’s get into how Jed Hoyer fixes this.

Over the next few weeks the Cubs will be selling. We’re going to hear names like, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Willson Contreras be tossed around in rumors to every contender. So, Jed must be smart and diligent over this course. The scouting needs to be great and the organization needs to bring back big returns. But, understand… This will not be a rebuild. It is a retooling!

While some believe that this is semantics, and sure, in a sense it is, but a retool and rebuild are much different. Think 2016 New York Yankees, they traded Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, to stockpile on prospects on the rise and nearing an MLB debut. With the Cubs having around $45 million committed to 2022 (not including arbitration eligible players), the Cubs can jump back into contention rather quickly with the right trades, right extensions, and right free agent acquisitions.

So, how do you identify the right players that fall into each group? Carefully.

I agree, that’s a copout. I don’t know how Jed Hoyer will do this, all I can provide is a rather expert opinion on how it should be done.

The first thing will be selecting those to retain, which in my opinion should be done by a rather simple equation. If keeping player X at an estimated salary of Y is more valuable than group of prospects Z over six years, then you keep that player. If not, then you trade that player.

This is why I keep coming back to you (Cubs) doing everything they can to retain Bryant. Yes, he will demand a hefty salary over the next six to eight years. Yes, it does seem that weird injuries happen to him (which some would suggest that they couldn’t keep happening, while others – usually dicks – suggest it’s an indictment of something). I look at KB and I (and many other media, scouts, insiders) see a player that an organization can build around. The guy literally does it all for a team, fixes every hole your roster may have, and plays at a very high level (since 2015 he’s second in the NL in fWAR).

On top of this, Bryant helps the team win. Over the course of his career, Kris has a 15.25 WPA (Win Probability Added). Is this good? Well, Baez owns a career -0.30 WPA, Contreras owns a -1.44. People suggest they’re both good players. Bryant has only had one season where he agreed a negative WPA, 2020, which should be mostly ignored.

I’m not saying there isn’t a prospect pool that doesn’t get a deal done for Kris, but I’m suggesting it’s gotta be big. And for you, “hEs AsKiNg fOr tOo mUcH” crowd, first, you have no idea what he’s asking for and second, he’s worth whatever he is asking for.

The next guy I see as someone to hold is Contreras (although recent comments might make things interesting). Both offensively and defensively, he’s proven to be one of the best in the game. Finding a catcher that is near the top of the league on either side of the ball is difficult enough, finding someone that excels in both is a unicorn.

Is he untouchable? No. But again, a package large enough can get it done. It should get it done with any of them.

Guys I would do whatever it takes to shop? Baez and Kimbrel.

With Baez, the league values him more than the value he adds. As I already pointed out, he has given a negative WPA. Offensively, he’ll knock a ball out every so often, but he has been league avg at best throughout his career. When he does succeed, it’s usually on a pitcher forcing breaking balls and they end up hanging or missing their spot. While, yes, you have to take advantage of mistakes, you shouldn’t pay $20m a year for it.

Defensively, he’s been great, but his 15 errors through 77 games (matching a career high) might be showing something. Errors are not a sure sign of much, since he’s posted a 4 DRS, it could suggest many things. Maybe pressing, maybe contract, maybe trade rumors, maybe being involved in too many off-the-fielf things. Who knows, but I do know he’s able to bring a return.

Kimbrel just makes sense. He has a few decent years left in him, has performed as possibly the best closer in the game, and has an option for the 2022 season. While I’m not going to say he can bring the Cubs something like the Yanks got for Chapman, he can bring a nice return and is prime for a move.

I hate to say this, but I see Rizzo as a perfect fit for the Yankees. I don’t know if they’re looking to add this season, being 8.0 games out, but 3.5 out of the Wild Card. Luke Voit, a righty, has been injured in 2021 and going into a platoon (lefty-right) and possibly DH’ing either can provide some extra rest for both (Rizzo’s back). Rizzo in Yankee Stadium and that left field porch, damn.

It would be a shock to Cubdom to move the emotional leader of the club, but his future as a Cub does get cloudy after turning down an extension in the spring.

I know there’s a lot of fans that want a complete sell off and rebuild. Honestly, this team doesn’t need that. Those same fans will also suggest that this core hasn’t performed over the last five years, and that’s a far too simplistic view.

The club has had too many similar hitters since the 2016 season. Hitting profiles with a lot of swing-and-miss and slugging types. So when people have said the Cubs strikeout too much, that’s both right and wrong. Strikeouts can be acceptable in a game. There are several spots where a strikeout is better than any other type of out.

The problem is the club hasn’t had the mix of contact hitters. You have a team with Bryant, Contreras, Rizzo, Baez with high contact guys, and the K’s aren’t as noticable since balls are put in play more often. Have six or seven guys that are more free swinging (which is weird to say with KB and Rizzo), and the lineup is one-dimensional.

That is why guys like Matt Duffy and Nico Hoerner have been important to this lineup. It helps balance the order, gives the team a multi-dimensional approach and gives the opposing pitcher a harder time through the order.

This is why the Cubs should retain a few of this core, but pepper in another contact guy. That would round out the lineup and it helps bridge to the 2024-26 when guys like Brennan Davis, Owen Caissie, Ed Howard, Christian Hernandez, and Reginald Preciado are contributing at the big league level.