The Soler Eclipse, Jorge’s Struggles and Trade Rumors
Its no secret, the Chicago Cubs Jorge Soler is slumping… bad. He currently has a .181/.271/.277 slash line with 2 HR and 6 RBI, and just the other night he earned the golden sombrero striking out four times. The struggles have caused Chicago media to suggest sending Soler to Iowa, and some fans to call for him to be traded.
We covered the suggestions by ESPN’s Jim Bowden that the Cubs could be in on several left fielders, and I also wrote about the rumors (although they probably do not have legs) on the Cubs interest in Mike Trout. While I can argue that bringing in a Ryan Braun or a Josh Reddick (or even Mike Trout) would help this team fill the hole left in left field because of the Kyle Schwarber injury and Soler’s struggles. Others would argue that the best option is having Kris Bryant play left with Javy Baez playing third.
Soler is a curious case. The Cuban was billed as a better hitter than the LA Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig and creates a more violent explosion of the bat than the New York Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes. His ridiculous line of .340/.432/.700 in 2014 while in the Cubs minor leagues showed the Cubs brass that he was the real deal, and FanGraphs even billed him as the safest of all Cubs prospects.
He was compared to Vladimir Guerrero for his uncanny ability to hit bad pitches hard. He showed flashes of this in 2014 as he was called up and impressed everyone enough to be an early favorite for the 2015 NL Rookie of the Year.
Now it seems like he isn’t able to hit any pitch.
We know that’s not the case. We’ve seen him perform at a high level just a few short months ago, when the lights were brightest. Jorge’s ridiculous .474/.600/1.105 slash line in the 2015 playoffs is what we all think his explosive bat is capable of. In fact, Soler’s bat was so explosive he finished the 2015 season with the 17th highest exit velocity of any major leaguer, at 92.8 MPH.
So far in 2016 he has dropped to 49th in baseball, and knocked off a mile per hour from his exit velocity – 91.8 MPH. The power is still there, he has hit the 14th hardest ball in baseball this season – 114.7 MPH, and his home runs (2) have averaged 408 happy feet.
The problem is, he isn’t hitting the ball. Not consistently anyways. This is Brooks Baseball’s analysis of Jorge’s approach per pitch type.
Hitter-At-A-Glance
Jorge Soler has seen 2,609 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2013 and 2016.In 2016, compared to how other hitters perform with similar pitches:
Against Fastballs (221 seen), he has had an aggressive approach at the plate (-0.08 c) with a high likelihood to swing and miss (25% whiff/swing). When he connects (29 tracked), he generates average power (92.4 mph average exit velocity) and sprays the ball to all fields (0.8° average spray angle).Against Breaking Pitches (130 seen), he has had an aggressive approach at the plate (-0.12 c) with an above average likelihood to swing and miss (38% whiff/swing). When he connects (15 tracked), he generates average power (89.9 mph average exit velocity) and consistently goes the other way (-9.7° average spray angle).
Against Offspeed Pitches (76 seen), he has had a steady approach at the plate (-0.28 c) with an exceptionally high likelihood to swing and miss (50% whiff/swing). When he connects (5 tracked), he generates thundering power (95 mph average exit velocity) and sprays the ball to all fields (12° average spray angle).
This doesn’t, or shouldn’t surprise any Cubs fan. His propensity to swing and miss, especially at breaking pitches, is something fans have complained about all season.
What a lot of his struggles could be attributed to is his willingness to offer at a pitch, any pitch. While he was celebrated for being one of those guys that can murder bad pitches, he has seemingly opened a 24/7 shop on swinging at anything the pitcher is willing to throw him.
While you can live with this approach when he is hitting – like in the 2015 NL Playoffs – his overly unselective approach is getting him into trouble, as illustrated by this next graph.
That’s a lot of blue, and for someone that swings at 70% of balls in the zone, and 32% of balls outside of it, he is making the pitchers job easier by going after those balls. His propensity to go out of the zone is contributing to his rather low contact rate as a whole, 68.5% which is 10% less than the MLB average (78%).
While Soler is willing to offer at more pitches in 2016 than he was in 2015 (70% swing rate compared to 68.8%), he was much more likely to hit the ball in 2015 – 83.4% contact rate. But additionally, when swinging at pitches that are in the pitcher’s favor (outside the zone, low, high) it causes a big reduction in effectiveness and it is less likely to hit that ball with authority.
The simplest fix in the world – don’t swing at everything thrown at you… Alright, that might not be simple, but that is the fix. If Soler becomes more selective with the pitches he offers at, his potential for success increases dramatically, ie 2015 NL playoffs. When he swings at bad pitches, you get his April and May (thus far) results from 2016.
One thing to caution, you don’t want to totally remove his aggression. That is part of what makes Soler who he is. But also, maybe just maybe this is just who Soler is? A consistent slow starter? Perhaps it is the cold, or he just needs a couple hundred at bats before he gets the feel for a new MLB season. While it is still very early in his career, his early March/April splits are similar to a Cub great.
Jorge Soler
Cubs great, Ryne Sandberg
I’m not going to go out on a limb and say Soler is on a track to become as good as Ryne Sandberg, but his first month is comparable. There are hundreds of slow starters in this league, but sometimes we forget this – especially considering young players.
I have been rather vocal in favor of the Cubs trading Soler, and not because I have given up on him. It is quite the contrary in fact. I believe that Soler has 35+ homer power, and is very capable of reaching that potential. I also think that he has the ability to hit for a higher average (.285+) because he scorches every ball he hits. He has shown the ability to be patient – collecting 6 walks in 25 postseason plate appearances.
I am on the trade Soler train mostly due to his place on this team. Like he has none… With a healthy Schwarber (which isn’t the case in 2016) the Cubs have a left fielder that has the ability to play everyday. It is from my opinion – which comes just from watching a heck of a lot of baseball – he is not the type to excel in a platoon role either. That opinion was backed up by Cubs catcher David Ross on the Mully and Hanley show on AM-670 Friday morning.
Interviews heard on 670 The Score
Source: 670 The Score Interview: David Ross on The Mully and Hanley Morning Show (05/13/2016)
Soler will be a good player in this league, regardless of his start, but his true value to this current Cubs roster might be in a trade to acquire another front line, cost controlled pitcher. While some of the better ones will more than likely cost more than Soler, a controllable asset will provide the Cubs brass with options in this year’s rotation or bullpen, as well as give them another option in the event that Jake Arrieta does end up leaving once his deal is up.
This is the luxury that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer has created for this franchise. The team has several high quality assets that other teams covet, and those players can be moved. Soler just might fall into that category, and whoever ends up getting him will get a great one.
Whether the Cubs keep him or trade him, Soler will hit this season. As the summer months get here, the sun shines on Wrigley, and the ball has a higher chance to fly out of the park, Soler will hit. Once he does, I’m sure those critics will become silent.
