The Ultimate 2016 Chicago Cubs Preview

Well I called this the “ultimate preview” so this outta be really, really good. I am using some of the best prediction information available for the 2016 Chicago Cubs preview, as well as analytics, others predictions, and my personal knowledge which spans more than 35 years.

Think of this as a test between the advanced analytics folk and the old fashion eye test that many baseball fans still use, even in an age with so much information available to us. While I do cheat and use the advanced metrics, a large part of my predictions is off of what I know about the game.

The outside sources are most notably going to be from Steamers – created by a couple of college students doing deep research for a class project and has become one of the most respected projectors in the business – and ZiPS – created by Dan Szymborski which uses multiple other analytic statistics measured in a way to predict player performance. I use their projections often throughout the year, and I have always thought that the perfect system is one where both are put into play.  Both can be found on FanGraphs. 

That last sentiment was echoed by a high ranking scout in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization through multiple conversations with him. And while most forward-thinking organizations in 2016 incorporate these advanced analytics into what they do to create competitve baseball teams, there is still a heavy reliance on the radar gun, the stop watch, the sound the ball makes off ones bat, and the eye test.

Without further adieu, the 2016 Chicago Cubs preview.

Catchers

Miguel Montero
Steamers – .242/.331/.377 9 HR, 38 RBI, 36 R, 358 PA
ZiPS – .232/.325/.358 12 HR, 54 RBI. 38 R, 458 PA

Miguel had the fewest plate appearances in 2015 than he’s had in the last five seasons. That, mixed with the reduction in production over the past several years warrants the seemingly low projections for Miguel. Remember, players at the catcher position tend to hit a wall, and when they hit that wall it is a quick and sudden drop in production, it has happened to all the greats, and we can expect that with Miggy as well.

The Cubs luckily have a deep catching roster, with the grizzled vet David Ross, and young stud Kyke Schwarber. Additionally they have Willson Contreras ready and waiting for a call-up in Iowa.

I am additionally predicting a low statistical output from the Venezuelan catcher. Partially due to the expected decrease in offensive production, partially due to the expectation of time off due to injury, and because he will be a spot in the Cubs lineup pitchers will go after very hard since there aren’t many other weaknesses from top to bottom.

.230/.319/.356 11 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R, 383 PA

David Ross
Steamers – .194/.273/.311 2 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 116 PA
ZiPS – .177/.259/.312 4 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R, 160 PA

Fans need to know, whatever you get offensively from Rossy is a bonus. He is on this roster because he is a leader, great defensively, and Jon Lester is very comfortable with him. This will mark his final year as a player, and will most certainly find himself on a bench (perhaps the Cubs) as a coach in 2017 (or whenever he wishes).

I wouldn’t expect much from Ross in 2016, but I do predict a slightly higher batting average than Steamers and ZiPS. Keep in mind that the increase is the equivalent of like three more hits this season.

.201/.242/.308 2 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R, 165 PA

First Baseman

Anthony Rizzo
Steamers – .278/.373/.517 31 HR, 98 RBI, 91 R, 644 PA
ZiPS – .271/.369/.502 32 HR, 99 RBI, 94 R, 674 PA

Anthony Rizzo could very possibly be the NL MVP in 2016, or at least on the short list of players up for the award. After finishing 10th and fourth in 2014 and 2015, respectively, would it surprise anyone if he carried home the award in 2016?

As you may have guessed, I’m predicting a much better season out of Rizzo than either projection systems are. While already a top value player, expect Rizzo to jump to the top of all NL players in 2016.

.295/.389/.523 33 HR, 105 RBI, 100 R, 679 PA

Second Baseman

Ben Zobrist
Steamer – .268/.352/.418 12 HR, 55 RBI, 70 R, 550 PA
ZiPS – .273/.356/.439 14 HR, 56 RBI, 76 R, 560 PA

Ben will be a gigantic addition to this Chicago Cubs lineup in 2016. While his predicted stats don’t scream greatness, he is a considerable upgrade over the production the team received from the position in 2015.

I’m very similar to these predictions with Zobrist. While a .270 avg doesn’t scream that he would be a major contributor, we are learning that there are much more important aspects to contribution than average or RBI.

.267/.357/.412 16 HR, 53 RBI, 81 R, 585 PA

Third Baseman

Kris Bryant
Steamer – .269/.358/.503 31 HR, 95 RBI, 86 R, 632 PA
ZiPS – .263/.362/.485 29 HR, 106 RBI, 94 R, 658 PA

Bryant should be in store for a huge sophomore season. While I would worry about the sophomore slump in most players, Kris has the pedigree to continue to excel in the majors. While his makeup helps, the lineup around him might just be the biggest reasoning for continued success in 2016.

I do predict a lower average for Kris in 2016, but that doesn’t mean there will be a decrease in production. He will certainly be a force, as my predictions will demonstrate.

.249/.356/.526 39 HR, 110 RBI, 101 R, 662 PA

Shortstop

Addison Russell
Steamer – .244/.304/.392 14 HR, 58 RBI, 55 R, 528 PA
ZiPS – .252/.304/.413 14 HR, 59 RBI, 61 R, 500 PA

I feel like Addison’s 2016 season will be the tale of two seasons. He just might fall subject to a sophomore slump, but will flip things around offensively and eventually strive in 2016. Of course Addy will be one of the strongest defensive shortstops in the league, which will allow for any offensive struggles or shortcomings.

I personally see a little stronger overall season from Addy than the projections show. While it might not be great numbers that I expect, he will certainly show he belongs and is well worth all the hype he garnered coming up through Oakland and Chicago’s systems.

.266/.319/.410 14 HR, 62 RBI, 55 R, 569 PA

Left Fielders

Kyle Schwarber
Steamer – .258/.342/.470 25 HR, 74 RBI, 70 R, 537 PA
ZiPS – .250/.337/.496 32 HR 100 RBI, 98 R, 586 PA

As you can see, there is already a difference in thought between the Steamer and ZiPS projection. While I like both, I personally lean towards the ZiPS projection as a basis of expectations. What I don’t like in either of these projections is the lack of respect given to Kyle’s overall ability to hit a baseball.

While they both show good power numbers, Kyle can spray to all fields, and drive the ball with authority to all fields. Additionally, his success in the 2015 playoffs shows that his ability to perform under pressure – which the Cubs should have a lot of pressure to play well – and will increase his stats in my book.

.289/.375/.513 32 HR, 101 RBI, 89 R, 560 PA

Jorge Soler
Steamer – .258/.322/.439 17 HR, 59 RBI, 52 R, 464 PA
ZiPS – .261/.327/.455 14 HR, 55 RBI, 47 R, 385 PA

I expect Jorge to pull off a very fine season in 2016. While he will be the lesser used option in left, he will also see time in right field, aquiring about 130 total games played. While there is some disparity between the projections above, it could easily be explained as no one really knows how much he will play, and how much actual talent he has. Could 2016 be the year Soler breaks out? Or will he be the first Cubs player offered up in trade? Who knows.

I project a slightly higher average, and fall in the middle as far as plate appearances. How well he does might end up being related to how warm it is, as he had shown an inability to play in cold weather. Lets all hope for a very warm spring.

.265/.329/.426 14 HR, 49 RBI, 43 R, 400 PA

Center Field

Dexter Fowler
Steamer – .249/.347/.386 12 HR, 50 RBI, 76 R, 596 PA
ZiPS – .255/.352/.403 13 HR, 43 RBI, 76 R, 574 PA

Dexter should see the lions share of starts in center field, and as leadoff hitter. That said, Albert Almora has impressed for the third time in spring training, and Jason Heyward is very capable of taking some time in center as well. This could be the reasoning behind predicting less than 600 plate appearances for Fowler, which would of course reduce his other stats as well.

Dexter is playing for another contract, and a championship. He stepped his game up in 2015, and there is no reason not to expect more of the same in 2016. The only wild card (as always) is injury.

.264/.357/.400 16 HR, 48 RBI, 84 R, 622 PA

Right Field

Jason Heyward
Steamer – .279/.347/.442 18 HR, 70 RBI, 88 R, 650 PA
ZiPS – .274/.352/.433 17 HR, 66 RBI, 85 R, 613 PA

There is no sugar coating it, Jason Heyward was the biggest offensive pickup for the Cubs and possibly all of baseball. Not only does he give the Cubs offense a HUGE boost, but he instantly makes the entire defense better as well. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that the Cubs stole him away from their biggest rival, the St Louis Cardinals.

Heyward made a huge leap forward offensively last season, and some still think he has a lot more to improve upon. Following his career I’m personally confused as how he hasn’t produced more at the plate, and he has every opportunity to make those leaps while in a Cubs uniform.

.284/.362/.444 19 HR, 68 RBI, 82 R, 668 PA

Other Major Contributors

Javier Baez
Steamer – .249/.299/.454 15 HR, 45 RBI, 38 R, 324 PA
ZiPS – .248/.301/.443 22 HR, 71 RBI, 66 R, 526 PA

Javy Baez is a tough cookie to predict, and you can tell by the differences in the above predictions. An interesting question for the Steamer guys would be, if Javy were to record the 524 plate appearances like ZiPS predicts, how much more inflated would his stats be? Is he a 20-plus home run hitter? Most seem to think so, if given the opportunity. With Baez expected to pretty much be a regular, while playing SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, RF, CF, and LF… it isn’t out of the question that he needs the 500-plus plate appearances this season.

I am up in the air with his projections. Admittedly he is going to have every opportunity that and everyday starter has, but could playing multiple positions cause a lack of production?

.232/.292/.452 19 HR, 51 RBI, 46 R, 501 PA

Tommy La Stella
Steamer – .273/.339/.374 2 HR, 17 RBI, 18 R, 179 PA
ZiPS – .267/.333/.375 4 HR, 36 RBI, 32 R, 343 PA

Tommy really didn’t get a full chance in 2015 suffering and early injury that took him off the Cubs roster for much of the season. What the Cubs saw was a scrappy, line drive, contact hitter that was always a tough out. We can expect more of the same from La Stella in 2016.

I’m not sure if either projection systems nails La Stella’s expected output. They both are wildly off from each other’s expected plate appearances, which in turn creates a discrepancy in predictions.

.291/.341/.379 1 HR, 22 RBI, 29 R, 345 PA

Pitchers

Pitching is one of the hardest things to predict in baseball. There isn’t a person alive that could have told you Jake Arrieta would perform the way he did in 2015, and there isn’t a single person alive that would say he would match that production in 2016. But additionally it’s tough because starters at the back end of a rotation can oftentimes lose jobs and you could lose a pitcher for months and even an entire season just from bad throw here or a bad bullpen session there.

Additionally the team’s Bullpen is hard to predict as well. These are guys that are often not very good pictures and that’s why they are in the bullpen. They could have been 2015 most surprising picture, and this year they can’t seem to get a single guy out.

Starters

Jake Arrieta
Steamer – 15-9, 2.95 ERA, 208 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 2.92 FIP
ZiPS – 16-7, 2.56 ERA, 186 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.88 FIP

Like mentioned, there isn’t a single predictor worth a damn that is willing to say Jake will match or come close to his 2015 production. Partially because Jake had an all-time historic season, and partially because he has never come close to the innings pitched or dominance shown in 2015. While the innings is cause for worry, I am in the belief that he had been gradually working his way to the caliber pitcher that he showed he was in 2015.

While I’m not going to say he’s going to match or surpass the season he had last year, I do think it is safe to put him in the upper echelon of starters in 2016.

19-7 2.65 ERA, 211 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.85 FIP

Jon Lester
Steamer – 14-9 3.17 ERA, 204 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 3.22 FIP
ZiPS – 15-8 2.98 ERA, 199 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 3.08 FIP

There are a lot of people that think Lester was a bust in 2015, and those people would be absolutely incorrect. Not only was 2015 Lester’s second best statistical season, but many believe that he is primed to improve upon his “sexy” stats in 2016. Oh… I am one of them.

Lester should push Arrieta all season for the team’s ERA title, and will have a much improved win-loss record as well. While improving upon those numbers, he should be very strong all around as welp.

17-10 2.79 ERA, 208 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 3.01 FIP

John Lackey
Steamer – 11-9 3.68 ERA, 173 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 3.71 FIP
ZiPS – 12-9 3.34 ERA, 183 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 3.59 FIP

The Cubs absolutely needed an upgrade to their pitching rotation and Lackey was their guy. While many thot they should have gone after one of the premier aces on the market, others thought the Cubs got a steal in John Lackey. According to the projections he looks like a normal pitcher. But normal is all the Cubs need in a third starter.

While I think Lackey will be a valuable piece to the Cubs rotation, I’m not as optimistic in his production as these projection systems are. I believe his year will look closer to that of the Steamer projection, while some areas will be a bit deflated.

10-10 3.74 ERA, 189 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 3.88 FIP

Jason Hammel
Steamer – 9-7 3.76 ERA, 129 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.78 FIP
ZiPS – 8-8 3.93 ERA, 144 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.07 FIP

How can anyone truly be optimistic about Jason Hammel’s season? With a huge reduction in production in the tail end of 2015, is the magic finally run out in Jason’s career? Neither Steamer or ZiPS thinks Jason will pitch much in 2016, and they are not very optimistic about how well he will do this season either.

I am 1000% in the same corner as both projection systems. I would be surprised if Jason finishes the season as a starter, or at least loses his role at some point in the season.

6-10 3.98 ERA, 123 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 4.09 FIP

Kyle Hendricks
Steamer – 9-8 3.60 ERA, 139 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 3.73 FIP
ZiPS – 8-7 3.61 ERA, 159 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 3.63 FIP

There are a lot of people that are afraid that Kyle will not produce much for the Cubs in 2016. While both systems predict a better year for Hendricks than Hammel, Kyle has been pushed to the fifth starters role behind Jason. As much weight as you can put into spring training stats, Kyle pitched well, and that could translate into the season.

I am in the camp that believes Kyle will have a break out season in 2016. He may not have as long of a leash as Jake or Jon, but he will certainly prove to be an impressive starter this season.

12-8 3.32 ERA, 172 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.22 FIP

Relievers

Hector Rondon
Steamer – 3.09 ERA, 64 IP, 66 K, 1.15 WHIP, 3.16 FIP
ZiPS – 2.95 ERA, 64 IP, 62 K, 1.14 WHIP, 3.15 FIP

Well again I will point to spring, not as an sure fire indicator of how well a player will be, but in terms of it being important for regulars to get off to a positive start. Hector posted a 12.38 ERA in the spring, and with there already being question marks surrounding the Cubs bullpen, his performance didn’t do a ton to inspire belief.

Again, the spring is the spring, and both projection systems we used have Rondon having a pretty solid season in 2016. I am cautiously optimistic about his season, but believe that once the lights are on and the heat and pressure is on him, Hector will be able to produce.

2.81 ERA, 66 IP, 70 K, 1.05 WHIP, 2.95 FIP

Pedro Strop
Steamer – 3.05 ERA, 65 IP, 74 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.11 FIP
ZiPS – 2.75 ERA, 59 IP, 71 K, 1.14 WHIP, 3.30 FIP

Pedro finished 2015 with a good stat line, and both Steamer and ZiPS show him producing once again. While he is certainly prone to having troubling outings, over the course of a 162 season Pedro is a solid pitcher in this league.

He will be very similar in 2016 as he was in 2015. That is promising for this Chicago Cubs bullpen, and the Cubs ability to lock down opponents late in games.

2.87 ERA, 68 IP, 79 K, 1.04 WHIP, 3.10 FIP

Travis Wood
Steamer – 3.31 ERA, 72 IP, 72 K, 1.19 WHIP, 3.76 FIP
ZiPS – 3.85 ERA, 135 IP, 127 K, 1.30 WHIP, 3.84 FIP

Travis is another tough to determine type. He was a huge factor late in games in 2015 after losing a starter role, and it appears that both Steamer and ZiPS are split on what his role will be in 2016. While yes, he very well need to make the spot start from time-to-time, ZiPS has Wood making 19 starts this season. On the flip side, Steamer has him making a total of five starts.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the season like either of the above projections, and likely he will finish somewhere in the middle. While I think he will have a valuable swing role on this team, I do not see him duplicating much of his 2015 success (after being demoted).

3.79 ERA, 84 IP, 76 K, 1.45 WHIP, 3.88 FIP

Adam Warren
Steamer – 3.65 ERA, 169 IP, 148 K, 1.25 WHIP, 3.74 FIP
ZiPS – 3.01 ERA, 101 IP, 92 K, 1.16 WHIP, 3.28 FIP

Again, there is a difference in how each system sees Adam being used. While Steamer expects him to make 23 starts this season, ZiPS is giving him all of eight nods. As the usual, ZiPS has the more favorable stat line, but Steamer thinks he will contribute more to the team in 2016.

I am in the middle. I believe he will see 15 starts in 2016, and will be a valuable asset to both the rotation and the bullpen. Maybe not as versatile as Terry Mulholland, there certainly can be weeks we see Adam start twice and maybe get a bullpen go as well.

3.25 ERA, 142 IP, 129 K, 1.19 WHIP, 3.38 FIP