Wait, the Cubs Interested in Trading for Arenado is Serious? Passan Suggests Names

Ok, I really don’t think this is a possibility. Especially with the constraints on the club financially. But with a second report suggesting the Colorado Rockies are intrigued by the Chicago Cubs as a potential suitor, things might be a little more serious.

Last week, Jon Morosi suggested the the Cubs were looming as a trade player for Nolan Arenado. Now, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Rockies are intrigued.

As the Colorado Rockies search for potential trade partners, two teams in particular have intrigued them, according to sources: the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.

The Rockies signed Arenado to an eight year extension last off season. That deal seemed like a guideline for any potential Kris Bryant extension. As the Cubs moved into the 2020 offseasons, especially since the Winter Meetings, it seems like the Cubs are more willing to trade the generational talent rather than signing him.

But trading for Arenado presents another question of affordability. Nolan earns $32.5 million a season, a number that will push the Cubs even further past the luxury tax threshold. In order to pull something like this off, the Cubs would need top make a number of moves, as Passan suggests. Specifically, Passan suggests pairing Willson Contreras with a high-priced contract. Then the club would also need to deal Bryant as a secondary move. Here are his specific words.

The Cubs would make sense if they move Bryant. They are not primed for some sort of a rebuild as much as a refresh or reboot — an always-difficult needle to thread, particularly if they hope to dip under the luxury-tax threshold. One source characterized the Cubs as doing due diligence, as they’ve done throughout the winter with myriad trade conversations, but the notion of trading catcher Willson Contreras and a higher-priced, underperforming player in an Arenado deal, then flipping Bryant to revitalize a mediocre farm system, squares in the short and long term.

When he suggests a Contreras and underperforming player, we all know he’s talking about Jason Heyward, right. I mean, that’s the guy. He’s the one contract that makes it all work. Moving $23.5 million off the payroll is necessary, especially if they plan on adding on top of it.

The Cubs estimated Competitive Balance Tax payroll is $210.7 million. The threshold is $208 million in 2020. If the Cubs goal is to get under the CBT, we have to understand that teams like to get about $12 to $15 million under by the start of a season. This ensures there’s enough room for any midseason call-ups, as well as July deadline deals. So if the club is serious about getting under the CBT they’ll need to drop around $17 million in salary. Let’s look top see if the Passan trade even makes sense from a CBT perspective.

Contreras is set to earn around $4.5 million in 2020. Heyward’ CBT salary is $23 million (the CBT uses AAV and not actual salary for that season). That’s a combined $27.5 million leaving the club. Arenado’s CBT salary is $35 million. This would increase the Cubs payroll to $218.2 million.

The next piece would be trading Kris Bryant for a boatload of prospects. Bryant is expected to make $18.5 million in 2020. This would bring the Cubs payroll to $199.7 million. This isn’t the $12 to $15 million under, but it does give them a $8.3 million buffer.

From a salary perspective, it’s close enough to check out.

But here’s where things will never seem to check. Contreras and Heyward will show much more improved numbers playing in Colorado. Contreras peppers all fields and can drive the ball with power to the right-center gap. Heyward’s defense will be much more appreciated in a larger RF and his offensive output will benefit from the thin air.

Arenado, while hitting 5 HR in 23 career games in Wrigley, only has an OPS of .792 at the friendly confines. This is a much below average output, especially so for a third baseman.

Additionally, Arenado has a career .995 OPS at Coors and a .799 away from the thin air of Colorado. His batting average drops from .324 at home to .265 on the road. His OBP is .380 at Coors and .323 on the road. He slugs .615 in Colorado and .476 in away games.

Essentially, over his career he puts up away numbers that are worse than Bryant’s 2018 numbers.

Now, Arenado had much improved numbers on the road in 2019, posting a slash line of .277/.346/.521, but these are still well under Bryant’s .282/.382/.521 in 2019. Basically, trading for Arenado might provide the Cubs with a better defensive infield, but it weakens the team at the catcher position, opens a huge hole in RF and CF, and offensively the team gets worse at third.

I would imagine the Cubs would need to add a RF with a trade of Heyward. But if you’re crossing your fingers for Nicholas Castellanos, his projected $14 million a season doesn’t fit into even these plans. Someone like Steven Souza Jr. makes more sense, with stretch goals sitting at someone like Yasil Puig assuming he isn’t offered a multi-year deal and inks a small one-year offer to prove himself.

Maybe the Cubs find a way to also move Craig Kimbrel before the season starts. This could provide enough payroll flexibility to make a subsequent move for Castellanos, but now the club really needs four different moves to work out perfectly before any of them are agreed upon. It was near magic for the front office to work out a trade of Starlin Castro at the same time they signed Ben Zobrist in the winter of 2016, they would need two times the magic for this to work out.

I’m not certain this has much legs outside of the Cubs front office always kicking tires. It’s like sales, to be successful you have to call on as many clients as possible. The Cubs front office believes in quantity when pursuing ways to improve the roster, and quality when it’s time to pull the trigger.