What it Will Take to Sign Kris Bryant Before Free Agency

Kris Bryant is on pace to have the best season of his career. He’s pacing to beat his career marks in all counting stats, and his BA, OPS, wRC+, wOBA are pushing to destroy his previous highs. For this reason, Jed Hoyer should be on the phone with Scott Boras EVERY.SINGLE.DAY until they can lock something down.

Now, at this point KB and Boras might just assume to go to free agency, which would see astronomical returns. But, the Cubs need to begin testing the idea that Bryant wants to be a Cub the rest of his career. Now, let’s not be naive to the point that money isn’t going to be a big factor here. It will be, and Kris deserves to be paid as the player he has been, and he has been the best player in the National League since he’s been in the league.

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We have had the pleasure of watching KB put the Cubs back on the map, winning the MVP in 2016 as he helped the team win their first World Series in 108 years.

However, among a certain faction of fans, that success didn’t give him the same leeway as guys like Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras receive. When those players have struggled, or even openly admitted they weren’t taking their day job seriously (Baez and Contreras), fans have been quick to give them a pass. When Bryant has been injured, but still put in the work, those same fans said he was washed up.

The 2021 season proves that any struggles Bryant has had have been due to unfortunate (and mostly bizarre) injuries. We can certainly agree that the best kind of ability is availability, but in Bryant’s case he has been playing, even when injured. That, as it would any player, limited his impact.

But now, in the 2021 season, we are seeing that KB we saw in 2015, 16, 17, and 19. We are seeing a player that is absolutely dominant in this league. When KB plays like this, there are only a small handful of players better, and if your last name isn’t Trout or Betts, you’ll have a hard time selling yourself over him.

So, after saying all of this… what will it take for the Cubs to stop KB from going to free agency? Well, a lot…

Now, a lot of fans don’t understand the money in the game, or any game for that matter. But, because a player seeks what he’s worth does *NOT* make him greedy. A player asking for a fair salary based on his play, should absolutely get it. When the average MLB career lasts just 5.6 years, players do deserve as much money as they can get from this game.

So far, Bryant has had a “value” of $241.1 million to the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have paid him $59 million over his career. So, the Cubs have received around $182 million in additional value from Bryant since the 2015 season.

Now, no player, not even Mike Trout gets their full value or worth. So, even though KB has been worth $40 million a season, don’t expect him to get a deal in that neighborhood per year. While you likely already understand that, it is important to note as KB’s next contract will be for a lot of money. Like, Kyler’s kids never needing to work in their life type of money.

I wrote last winter on what a Bryant deal would look like, and I used Josh Donaldson as an example. To that point in both of their careers, they had essentially the same numbers. They played the same position, they accumulated similar counting stats and more advanced stats. It, outside of age, was the perfect comparison.

Now, Bryant is surpassing that Donaldson deal and is pacing to put himself back into the Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and that sorta range. For comparisons, here are their deals:

• Josh Donaldson – 4 yr. $92 million ($23m AAV)
• Manny Machado – 10 yr. $300 million ($30m AAV)
• Bryce Harper – 13 yr. $330 million ($25m AAV)
• Mookie Betts – 12 yr. $365 million ($30m AAV)

Now, Bryant nor Boras have little motivation to “talk” extension right now. One, a player typically doesn’t like contract talks hanging over their heads in season. This game is hard enough to be also playing with the pressures of negotiating the next five to 10 years of their life’s earnings. So to even get Boras on the phone, whatever the number starts with (total value or AAV) should start with a “two”. Maybe that’s something north of $200 million, or maybe that’s something north of $25 million per year. Whatever it is, they have to wow them to open talks.

Wow them does not equal overpay! While, regardless of what KB earns in 2022 and the foreseeable future people will say he’s overpaid (they’re wrong, btw), the Cubs can’t low-ball him here. They might only get one shot to open the negotiations, and if they come too low, that door will be shut till November. Once November hits, they may find teams like Atlanta or Los Angeles or a few others more than willing to start their numbers with three’s.

If I were a betting man, Bryant would start talking if the Cubs start around eight years, $25 million per. That puts him at a total value deal of $200 million and takes him to his age-38 season. I believe he would counter this, and I think he can eventually sign in the eight year, $235ish range. That puts his AAV at just over $29m a season. The question is, with how bootstrapped the Cubs budget seems to be, will they go there for KB before season’s end?

This is important cause, when KB gets to November without a deal, there will be someone that throws him either a ninth or tenth year or even tosses him a couple more million (AAV) to put him above the Machado deal. I wholeheartedly believe KB will sacrifice a little cash now to not go through the whole free agency process, but once he gets there he and Boras will find a max deal.

The Cubs have to make KB good on his words, he has said, repeatedly, that he wants to be a Cub for the remainder of his career. The Cubs have one chance to try and make that happen. If they don’t come in hot, they will lose the chance to sign him and it is likely he plays elsewhere in 2022. Cubs fans, he deserves this right and will deserve the money he gets. Will the Ricketts give Hoyer the flexibility to get it done?

All I know for sure is, the Cubs 1000% need to prioritize signing him, like now.