What to Expect When Expecting: Kris Bryant
I don’t understand it. Seriously, I don’t understand how so many Cubs fans have turned on third baseman Kris Bryant. When healthy, Bryant has been a top 5 offensive player in the game. Since he’s been in the show he’s been the highest rated player, per WAR, in the National League. He is the first player in the history of the game to ever be named College Player of the Year, Minor League Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and MVP in consecutive seasons – EVER!
There are either far too many folks that look at Bryant’s 2018 and believe that is what he is, or far too many folks that really believe ripping him on social media will make him better in 2019. If you’re the latter, apparently just wildly misconstruing your importance.
“Last year we let some of the outside factors influence us and what we were seeing and what people were saying about us,” Bryant said. “And it compounded things. At the end of the day, that noise doesn’t matter. It’s what we believe and what we want here. It’s important for us to tune that out and do what we do best.
“Especially this year. I have a different approach to things, and I’m tuning out the noise and distractions and realizing it doesn’t matter what people say about our team and our offensive group. It really doesn’t matter. It’s what we do, it’s what we want to do. It’s how we prepare. It’s all that matters to us. If we can limit that outside noise, I think we’ll realize our full potential.”
I get some fans frustration with Bryant. There are some big statistical categories he’s experienced a decline in. He was billed as a premium power hitter. He hit 31 home runs as a junior at San Diego, which led the nation and was a school record. He then hit 43 homers across Tennessee and Iowa in 2014. Added 26 as a rookie in 2015 (and hit three more in Iowa before his call-up). In 2016, Bryant blasted 39 jacks. But then 2017 his HR total fell to 29, and 2018 it dropped even lower to 13 homers.
Then, and while a lot of baseball statheads will tell you RBI isn’t an individual stat, this is another statistic that’s dropped. He drove in 110 runs in 138 minor league games in 2014. Then 2015 he drove in 99 while playing in the show (10 more in Iowa). His 2016 season he drove in 102 on his way to winning the MVP (oh, and the World Series). Then it dropped to 73 in ‘17 and 52 in 2018.
Clutch, or lack there of
Fans have also mentioned how Bryant disappears in clutch situations. Over his career he’s posted a .254 AVG with two out and RISP. His average drops even lower when its late and close, posting a .230 career average in those situations. Even when you account for OPS, Bryant owns a career .900 OPS, but it drops to .814 with two out and RISP and .753 when it’s late and close.
Superstar players need to be the most dangerous hitters, and the one or two guys in a lineup that can beat you. Now, Bryant absolutely can beat you with one swing, but his performance in “clutch situations” has not been of superstar level.
This can at times be a little slanted though. Especially in today’s game.
Typically, especially late, the biggest bats are hitting against the oppositions best relievers. Guys that rarely get beat, and have come in to face one or two hitters. That’s the type of pitcher Bryant spends a lot of time facing in the clutch.
Theres also the idea that there really isn’t a such thing as a clutch performer. It’s merely a basis of sample size. We all remember how “clutch” Derek Jeter was in the playoffs, but if you look at his regular season stats and compare them to his playoff stats, they’re nearly identical. This is the case with many players you remember as “clutch.” Often times their regular stat line and clutch situational line doesn’t look that much different.
Its the same with average players as well. Their stat line typically compares similarly to their performance in clutch spots.
Injury
We should look at Bryant’s 2018 season, and 2019 season in a couple ways. First, much of his 2018 year should be tossed out because of the injury. Likewise, with Kris declaring he’s healthy, 2019 should be judged as if he’s healthy.
The story has been told so much the past year. Bryant’s 2018 began as if he were on another MVP track. Until May 19th, when he injured his shoulder, Bryant slashed .311/.428/.595. This was much better than his MVP season of 2016, and while it was unlikely he would keep up that pace, I’d put money on Christian Yelich not being MVP if the injury didn’t happen.
It’s also unlikely there would have been a game 163, or a Wild Card game, nor a quick playoff exit.
The Cubs lineup would have been a lot different in 2018 if Bryant was healthy all year. If you pair his bat, with Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo. Coincidentally, Willson Contreras had an .851 OPS up until Bryant’s injury, possibly lending a hand for his downward spiral too. When superstar players struggle, or are missing, it sends ripples throughout a lineup.
What should we expect?
Well, I can’t see a world where Bryant is closer to the 2018 version than the 2016 version. I’ve been very adamant that the Cubs penciled in their World Series championship the second they drafted Kris, and I still believe there’s several successful seasons ahead with him leading the charge.
Bryant is a legitimate superstar in baseball, and I’ll never understand someone that questions that. It seems like most of the projection models believe Bryant will be a very valuable bat as well.
Batting average in 2019 is a hard thing to predict. Baseball seems to have gotten away from BA and the importance of a high batting average. The more important stat is how often someone gets on base, and when they do hit the ball what happens. Someone might own a .270 avg, but if they’re getting on at a .400 clip and have a high .400 to .500 slugging percentage, they’re much more valued that a hitter with a .310/.340/.400 slash line.
So when Fangraphs suggests averages mostly ranging between .270 and .278 it shouldn’t cause you to raise an eyebrow.
It should be expected that Bryant hits at a higher average than that, and Id put him around .294 for the season.
Fangraphs is also showing suggestions that he will reach base at a clip between .365 and .395. Personally I’d throw away that .365 number and focus closer to the .395 pace. Then slugging between high .400’s and low .500’s.
The one outliner, and a model I agree most with, is FANS(22). They suggest a stat line of .290/.395/.541. They also project 31 HR, 108 R, and 111 RBI.
I think there will be several factors that determine how well Bryant does in 2019. The first, having a better Contreras as well as the continued improvement in Kyle Schwarber will make everything click more. With a more potent lineup, Bryant will see better pitches as there won’t be anyone to pitch around.
Next, the new reliever rules will force opposing managers to decide who is the most important hitter to get out in an inning. So when a lineup likely has Bryant hitting second, with Rizzo and Baez to follow, Bryant very well could see more at bats against left handed relievers late in games. Or a manager could ask a pitcher to stay in and face him, waiting to bring a lefty in for Rizzo.
Ultimately, I see Bryant returning to a legit MVP contender. I see him leading this team to a very good place in 2019. He is just too damn good for him to not breakthrough once again.
2019, Bryant, Kris – .294/.395/.556 36 HR, 101 R, 97 RBI
